Chicago Grinds Lower

05/11/13 -- Soycomplex: Nov 13 beans finished with their lowest daily close since Aug 16th on harvest pressure and good progress with soybean plantings in South America. Also weather forecasts say that Argentina is due another decent rain event this weekend. Current price levels strongly favour soybean plantings over corn in South America, where a record crop is on the cards in 2014 - if the weather co-operates. Safras e Mercado forecast the total South American soybean crop at 163.037 MMT, up 11.5% versus 146.226 MMT a year ago. That includes a record crop in both Brazil and Argentina, with production in the former at 89.453 MMT versus 82.125 MMT a year ago and Argentina's crop at 57.57 MMT versus 49.1 MMT in 2012/13. They say that as of Nov 1st the Brazilian soybean crop was 44% planted versus 36% normally. They said that Mato Grosso soybean planting is 72% complete versus 63% a year ago. Brazil’s Trade Minister said that Feb/Oct soybean exports were 42.04 MMT, up 33.8% from a year ago. Nov 13 Soybeans closed at $12.59 1/4, down 4 3/4 cents; Jan 14 Soybeans closed at $12.50 1/4, down 6 1/4 cents; Dec 13 Soybean Meal closed at $392.80, down $4.10; Dec 13 Soybean Oil closed at 41.15, down 10 points.

Corn: It was the same old story for corn: grinding lower in narrow trade, setting a new multi-year front month closing low at the finish. Dec 13 corn had just a 3 cents trading range on the day. The trade is bracing itself for a 14 billion bushel crop estimate from the USDA on Friday, but will it get it? Trade estimates for 2013/14 US corn ending stocks are centred around a healthy 2 billion bushels versus only 661 million at the end of 2012/13. The USDA announced 140 TMT of US corn sold to South Korea along with 126 TMT sold to unknown for 2013/14 delivery. Much more will be needed, although forward sales are robust. Cumulative shipments have reached 16.9% of the USDA forecast for the entire marketing year versus 17.7% as the 5-year average for this time of the year. Safras e Mercado said that 77% of the Brazilian summer corn crop is planted versus 63% a year ago. They estimate production of both summer and second crop corn at 77.238 MMT versus 82.070 MMT a year ago. The Brazilian Trade Minister placed Feb/Oct corn exports at 16.223 MMT, up 17.3% from a year ago. Dec 13 Corn closed at $4.25, down 1 1/4 cents; Mar 14 Corn closed at $4.35 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents.

Wheat: Wheat closed lower on all three exchanges on ideas that the recent rally may have been overcooked. Pressure also came from corn at new more than 3-year lows and last night's crop ratings from the USDA showing 63% of the nation's winter wheat crop in good/excellent condition, up 2 points on last week and compared to only 39% a year ago. Yesterday's export inspections of only 7.146 million bushels versus the expected 17-21 million added to the bearish sentiment. Inspections need to average 16.5 million bushels each week to reach the USDA projection for the year. Egypt's GASC tendered for wheat for Dec 1-10 delivery, with the results expected tomorrow. Although it's unlikely that US wheat will feature, French wheat might get a look in. It will also be interesting to see what is offered out of Ukraine and by other sellers on the Black Sea, and whether Russian offers are undercut. The wheat harvest in Russia is winding down, and production is likely to be up sharply on last year's drought-reduced crop, but they are said to have a much higher percentage of low grade wheat than normal this year. Dec 13 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.56, down 6 3/4 cents; Dec 13 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.22 1/4, down 7 cents; Dec 13 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.13 3/4, down 5 1/2 cents.