Nogger's Blog

26/02/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with decent gains. Some reports yesterday that the Brazilian truckers strike was petering out may have been overdone it would seem. Dr Cordonnier said that the strike was becoming "very serious" and that the port of Paranagua, which would normally handle around 900 grain trucks a day at this time of year only saw only 45 lorries on Tuesday and 75 on Wednesday. Some truckers attempting to break the blockade have found the soybean loads they were carrying dumped on the highway, he added. Diesel availability is getting tight, further hampering the movement of grain and also harvest activity, he said. Oil World cut their forecast for Brazil's 2014/15 soybean crop by 1.5 MMT to 91.5 MMT, but raised their outlook on Argentina a similar amount to 56 MMT. World production was nudged slightly higher to 312.2 MMT, a 10% increase on last year. MDA CropCast were unchanged on their forecasts for Brazil (93.5 MMT) and Argentina (57.3 MMT), but increased Paraguay by 240 TMT to 8.16 MMT. The IGC raised their forecast for the world soybean crop by 3 MMT to 315 MMT, with ending stocks up a similar amount to 45 MMT. They raised their forecast on Argentina to 57 MMT, dropping Brazil to 93.5 MMT, and increased Paraguay to 8.7 MMT. The USDA reported weekly export sales of 459,200 MT for 2014/15, which were down 9 percent from the previous week and 26 percent below the prior 4-week average. New crop sales were 36,200 MT. Exports themselves topped 1.1 MMT. Total commitments are now 97% of the USDA target for the season. Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $10.24, up 16 1/4 cents; May 15 Soybeans closed at $10.26 1/2, up 15 3/4 cents; Mar 15 Soybean Meal closed at $354.60, up $4.10; Mar 15 Soybean Oil closed at 31.84, up 13 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 4-5 cents higher. "The South American trucker strike remains the main talking point. The majority are in agreement that the worst is behind us, but there continues to be opinions regarding the degree of damage already inflicted and the potential for residual strikes," noted Benson Quinn. Weekly export sales of 715,800 MT for 2014/15 were down 23 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. There were also new crop sales of 148,200 MT. These numbers were in line with trade expectations. MDA CropCast were unchanged on their forecasts for Brazilian corn production at 75.7 MMT and Argentina at 23.1 MMT. The IGC estimated global corn output unchanged at 992 MMT, with consumption up 1 MMT to 974 MMT and ending stocks down 1 MMT at 193 MMT. Corn prices have been pressured by bearish fundamentals, including comfortable world supplies, they said. They increased their forecast for the Argentine corn crop to 30 MMT, and were unchanged on Brazil at 77 MMT. They see global output in 2015/16 falling 5% to 938 MMT. CEC estimated South Africa’s 2015 corn crop at 9.66 MMT, the lowest since 2007, and down sharply on the 14.25 MMT produced in 2014. South Korea's KFA bought 120,000 MT of optional origin corn for September shipment in a tender. Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.80, up 4 1/4 cents; May 15 Corn closed at $3.88 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed. The IGC raised world wheat production in 2014/15 by 2 MMT to 719 MMT, with consumption up 1 MMT to 709 MMT and ending stocks rising 1 MMT to 197 MMT. Production in 2015/16 is seen falling to 705 MMT. South Korea's KFA bought 25,000 MT of feed wheat of optional origin for May shipment. South Korea's MFG bought 53,000 MT of similar for August shipment. MDA CropCast cut their forecast for the US all wheat crop in 2015/16 by 2.6 MMT to 58.9 MMT. Weekly US wheat export sales came in at 328,300 MT for delivery in the 2014/15 marketing year, which were up 23 percent from the previous week, but down 19 percent from the prior 4-week average. US wheat sales continue to suffer, hampered by the strong US dollar. The same cannot be said for EU wheat exports, with Brussels granting an impressive 912,431 MT of weekly soft wheat export licences this past week, almost treble the volume of US exports. That takes the season to date total to 20.8 MMT. France picked up 353,848 MT worth of soft wheat export licences last week alone, more than the entire volume of US wheat sales. The euro currently sits at an 11-year low against the US dollar, which is proving to be a very significant advantage to EU exports. Rusagrotrans said that Russia might export around 1 MMT of grains in February, less than half the volume shipped out in January, with wheat accounting for 400 TMT of that total. Mar 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.03 1/4, up 5 1/2 cents; Mar 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.27 1/4, down 1 cent; Mar 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.51 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents.