Chicago Grains End Mostly A Little Higher
28/04/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans and meal closed with small gains, and oil was lower. The fact that tonight's close has pushed the new crop soybean:corn price ratio up to 2.49:1 - the highest in almost 7 months - suggests that soybeans may struggle to climb much higher than this, unless we see a turnaround in the corn market. The USDA reported the sale of 390 TMT of US beans to "unknown" for 2015/16 shipment, which may have lent some support to new crop today. Reports that an Argentine newspaper was saying that oilseed crush workers there are looking for a 42% pay rise, and may strike on Monday to try to get it, may have helped old crop. Oil World raised their forecast for the world 2014/15 soybean crop by 3.1 MMT to a record 315.9 MMT, a 12% increase versus last season. Global output of the seven major oilseeds will rise 6.4% to 518.2 MMT, and the stocks to use ratio will climb to 21% from 17% a year ago, they added. APK Inform said that Ukraine farmers would plant a record 2.15 million ha of soybeans this year, up 19% on a year ago, and harvest an all-time high 4.2 MMT crop (up 8% compared to 2014). May 15 Soybeans closed at $9.77 1/2, up 4 1/2 cents; Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.77 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents; May 15 Soybean Meal closed at $318.70, up $3.60; May 15 Soybean Oil closed at 31.23, down 43 points.
Corn: The corn market ended barely changed, and traded in a narrow range of only 4-5 cents either way. US weather leans conducive to decent planting progress being made with corn this week and next. Weather models seem to be in pretty good agreement that warmer weather will push in from the west in the May 1-5 time frame, although there's some disagreement beyond that. Whilst yesterday's number of 19% complete on corn planting was towards the low end of trade expectations, it was 2 points ahead of a year ago when yields went on to throw the record book out of the window. The Argentine corn harvest is estimated to be around a quarter of the way through. Planting in Ukraine is said to be around a quarter done, and Russia is past 28% complete. Production in Ukraine could fall to around 22-23 MMT versus circa 28.5 MMT a year ago it is thought. Taiwan’s MFIG were said to have bought 120-130 TMT of US corn overnight for June-July shipment. Germany's Deutsche Maiskomitee said that corn planting there will drop around 1% to 2.55 million hectares this year. That includes 1.15 million ha of corn for silage, 912k ha of corn for biogas usage and 441k ha of corn for grain. Coceral estimated the latter at 465k ha in March. May 15 Corn closed at $3.61, up 1/4 cent; Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.64 1/2, down 1/4 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market closed higher, with Kansas and Minneapolis posting the best gains. The fact that the USDA left US winter wheat crop ratings unchanged in last night's crop condition report may have triggered some modest profit-taking, as an increase of 1-2 points in the good to excellent category was what the market was expecting. It's hardly what you would call a major reversal though from the near 5-year lows posted yesterday. "The fact of the matter is the trend remains intact despite the ever growing net short fund position," noted Benson Quinn. That record short position is likely to be even larger now than it was in last week's Commitment of Traders Report, even with some modest net fund buying today (estimated at around 1,000 contracts in Chicago wheat). South Korea's Samyang Corporation has announced a tender for the purchase of 30 TMT of US wheat. South Korea's KFM are in the market for 32.2 TMT of Australian wheat. Russia said that their spring wheat crop is only 3.2% planted so far. Barley planting is 27.3% complete. India said that they may end up buying less than the originally intended 30 MMT of domestic wheat from their 2015 harvest due to quality issues with their rain/hail damaged crop. May 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.71 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents; May 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.97 1/4, up 6 1/2 cents; May 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.30, up 5 1/2 cents.