Will We Ever See London Wheat At GBP200 Ever Again?
30/09/15 -- "Three good growing seasons are leaving spot grain and oilseed markets in a plentiful supply situation, with farmers feeling the full force of low prices," says the HGCA's Jack Watts.
"What’s important to remember is that the current low prices are just one phase of the commodity cycle – how long this phase lasts is up for debate," he adds. Certainly that's a debate that every farmer in the UK, Europe and beyond would like to be involved in.
It's 16 months since we saw London wheat trade above GBP150/tonne on a front month, although it was making GBP225/tonne as "fairly" recently as late 2012 - which isn't really that long ago in the overall scheme of things. Also the gap between that and the previous "once in a lifetime" period of London wheat trading in excess of GBP200/tonne was only 18 months.
Will we ever see wheat at GBP200/tonne ever again? I believe that we will. When it happens just don't go thinking that "this is the new normal" again that's all. Volatility has been the new normal for some time, and that's one thing that I don't see that changing.