Nogger's Blog

11/07/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower heading into tomorrow's WASDE report, with fund money maybe continuing to ditch some length. Weekly export inspections of 374,016 MT were double last week's total. The USDA raised good to excellent crop conditions one point to 71% (62% a year ago). They said that 7% of the crop is setting pods (5% on average) and that 40% of the crop is blooming (31% on average). US soybean production is expected to be 3.876 billion bushels in tomorrow’s WASDE report, with 2016/17 carryout of 295 million bu. The EU Commission cut their forecast for the EU-28 OSR crop to 20.8 MMT from 22.0 MMT previously. UkrAgroConsult said that oilseed crops in Ukraine were doing well. Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $10.82 3/4, down 7 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $10.55, down 2 3/4 cents; Jul 16 Soybean Meal settled at $373.70, down $5.00; Jul 16 Soybean Oil settled at 30.25, down 2 points.

Corn: The market closed with fairly sizable losses. Weekly export inspections came in at 1.358 MMT. The USDA said that 32% of this year's corn crop is pollinating against 26% fore the 5-year average. They placed good to excellent crop conditions at 76%, up one point. The EU Commission cut the size of the EU-28 corn crop from 65.8 MMT to 65.2 MMT. Ukraine seaports chipped 90,100 MT of corn last week, said APK Inform. Russian seaports shipped zero. Trade estimates for tomorrow's WASDE report say that 2016 US corn production will be 14.523 billion bushels, with 2016/17 ending stocks of 2.213 billion bu. The long-term forecast still points to much above normal temperatures for most of the corn belt combined with normal to below normal rainfall. It's unlikely therefore that we've seen the end of this weather market just yet. Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.43 3/4, down 6 cents; Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.48 1/4, down 6 3/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market ended lower. Weekly export inspections of 375,279 MT were down 34% on last week but 38% higher than the same week in 2015. The USDA put the 2016 US winter wheat harvest at 66% complete, one point ahead of the 5-year average.Spring wheat conditions were trimmed 2 points to 70% good to excellent. Spring wheat headed was 91% against only 64% on average. The EU Commission cut their forecast for the EU-28 soft wheat crop from 145.1 MMT to 144.6 MMT. Rapidly deteriorating French crop conditions remain a worry there. Ukraine seaports shipped out 159,900 MT of wheat last week and Russian seaports a further 57,100 MT, said APK Inform. IKAR said that Russian wheat prices were at 7-year lows following good early yield results and a sudden strengthening of the rouble. US wheat production is expected to be 2.164 billion bushels in the monthly WASDE report tomorrow, up from the previous USDA forecast of 2.077 billion bu. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.16 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.01, down 4 1/4 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $4.99 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents.