Little Change In Chicago Ahead Of USDA Report
11/10/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed little changed, with the trade seemingly already where it wants to be heading into Wednesday's USDA report. Export inspections of 1.8 MMT were pretty robust, underlining the strong demand theme. Yet the trade is expecting a record supply and bumper yield theme also to be confirmed in tomorrow's WASDE report. Yields of 51.5 bu/acre are the average trade guess, but some are talking as high as 53.0 bu/acre, smashing all previous records. Trade ideas for production run between 4.147 and 4.357 billion bu. After the close the USDA estimated the 2016 US soybean harvest at 44% complete, not as high as the 50% done that the trade was expecting. Conditions were unchanged on a week ago at 74% good to excellent. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.54 1/4, down 1/4 cent; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.61 3/4, up 1/4 cent; Oct 16 Soybean Meal settled at $297.60, up $1.30; Oct 16 Soybean Oil settled at 33.16, down 46 points.
Corn: Corn closed a couple of cents or so higher. Weekly export inspections of 1.13 MMT were down around 24% from last week, but still up some 87% on the same week last year. The USDA also announced export sales of 161,544 MT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2016/17 marketing year under the daily reporting system. The market is expecting the USDA to lower 2016 US corn yields by around 1 bu/acre in tomorrow's report, with the average trade guess coming in around 173.4 bu/acre. Production is estimated around 15.06 billion bu. After the close the USDA put this year's US corn harvest at 35% done versus the expected 40-45% and 38% on average. Maturity was placed at 93% versus 88% on average. Crop conditions were left unchanged at 73% good to excellent, in line with expectations. "South American weather remains beneficial for planting in central Brazil, southern Brazil, and all of Argentina’s corn belt the next 5 days. The northern Brazil corn belt is due for some much needed showers in the 6-10 forecast," said FCStone. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.45 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.55 1/4, up 2 cents.
Wheat: Wheat closed mixed. Weekly export inspections of only 432,859 MT didn't pull up any trees. That is only around 65% of last week's total, but still better than the same poor week last year (322 TMT). Loadings to date are running 2.21 MMT over a year ago. The USDA reported winter wheat planting for the 2017 harvest at 59% complete versus 60% on average. Emergence is at 34% versus 30% on average. The trade is looking for US ending stocks of between 1.050 and 1.400 billion bushels on Wednesday, with global carryout seen at 246 to 252.70 MMT. Bullish surprises for wheat are not expected. Still, the funds remain heavily short and may be unwilling to press the downside to much more for the time being. Japan are in the market for their regular Tuesday wheat tender, looking for 100 TMT of US/Canadian origin material (no room for Australia this week), with the results expected on Thursday. Russia said that they'd harvested 114.5 MMT of grains so far this season off 92.5% of the combinable area. That includes 75.5 MMT of wheat (97.7%) and 19.0 MMT of barley (96.7%). Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.07 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.06 1/4, down 3/4 cent; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.24 1/4, up 2 cents.