EU Wheat Close
25/11/10 -- Jan11 London wheat closed GBP3.15 higher at GBP174.65/tonne, with Nov11 up GBP3.95 to GBP149.00/tonne. Jan11 Paris wheat rose EUR2.25 to EUR218.25/tonne and Nov11 was EUR1.25 higher at EUR196.00/tonne.
This was the highest front month close for London wheat since April 2008. It was a low volume day with the US markets shut for Thanksgiving, and many traders also expected to be absent tomorrow when Chicago will trade a shortened session.
The euro was under pressure again on concerns over Ireland, Portugal and Spain - amongst others.
Much colder weather and snow arrived, as was forecast, which just helped underpin the market. London gained relative to Paris wheat as the differential between the two continues to narrow.
Brussels announced that they'd agreed to sell 223,000 MT of intervention grain on the first day of tenders. There were plenty of bids apparently, with five of the countries concerned getting interest for the entire volume on offer.
In addition they said that export licences had been issued for 351,000 MT of soft wheat during the past week. That takes the total for the current marketing year to 9.6 MMT, up by more than a third on a year ago.
The IGC left their world wheat production estimate unchanged at 644 MMT, but raised consumption by 2 MMT to 660 MMT. Global ending stocks are seen down 16 MMT on last season. World corn output was cut by 4 MMT from last month to 810 MMT, with ending stocks pegged at 121 MMT, 31 MMT down on last season.
Early Call On Chicago
25/11/10 -- A pretty confident unchanged across the board is the early call for this afternoon.
For all you horse racing fans out there, have you ever noticed that on days when we are open and Chicago is closed, it's a bit like when all the proper race meetings are off. You have to make do with the all weather from Southwell, or even worse Walthamstow dogs. Or even worse than that the stupid "virtual" racing that they have these days.
Who on earth would bet on that I'll never know. Hang on a minute, yes I do, my mate Kieran. He likes a bet does Kieran, and he also sadly suffers from a medical condition that means he never wants to be too far away from a lavatory, without going into too many details.
Well he went down to London with a gangs of mates once and surprisingly they all decided that it would be a sensible thing to do to go out on the lash. When they awoke in the morning at the flat where they were all crashing one of the girls involved had decided to run herself a bath (the very cheek of it). She refused to come out of it even to allow Kieran to see to, what was to his mind some very pressing business.
So resourceful Kizzer decides to pop over the road to William Hills and dispose of his brown paper parcel using their facilities. Being a gentleman as well as a scholar of course Kieran couldn't bring himself to simply bowl in and leave Efan Ekoku behind him so to speak, without at least using their other facilities as well.
So he quickly put a bet on all they had to offer at that time in the morning, the virtual racing from "Hilltop Gardens". One, seven and thirteen are Kizzer's lucky numbers so he rattles off a quick tricast on those and settles down to complete the remainder of his mission.
You can probably guess the rest if you've stuck with the story this long, as Kizzer leaves the shop both a couple of pounds lighter and also several hundred pounds heavier.
He is ginger though, so he doesn't have things all his own way.
IGC Cut World Corn Crop 4 MMT
25/11/10 -- The International Grains Council have cut their global corn production estimate by 4 MMT this month to 810 MMT. That's now fully 8.5 MMT lower than the current USDA estimate of 818.5 MMT. Consumption is seen at a record 840 MMT, up 27 MMT on last season, with ending stocks pegged at 121 MMT - 31 MMT down on last season and also 8 MMT lower than the USDA estimate.
World wheat production was estimated at 644 MMT, unchanged from October's estimate and broadly in line with the USDA's figure of 642.9 MMT. Global wheat consumption was raised 2 MMT from last month to 660 MMT. World 2010/11 ending stocks are seen declining 16 MMT from last season to 180 MMT, that's 7.5 MMT more than the USDA project.
They don't let them have decimal places at the IGC. Or sharp things.
EU Rapemeal Prices
25/11/10 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal.
Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading day:
| Nov10 | 214.00 | unch |
| Dec10 | 212.00 | unch |
| Jan11 | 212.00 | +1.00 |
| Feb/Apr11 | 209.00 | -1.00 |
| May/FH Jul11 | 207.00 | unch |
| Aug/Oct11 | 180.00 | unch |
| Nov11/Jan12 | 187.00 | -1.00 |
I Thought It Was The British Who Loved Queueing
25/11/10 -- You can tell it's a no news sort of a day can't you? The French are attempting to usurp the British pastime of queueing it would seem, after a Parisian woman stayed locked in her bathroom for twenty days.
They say that as if it's some sort of record? MrsN#1 used to start getting ready for the Christmas night out in August. No, now come on, I'm NOT going to do the one about her being so ugly that when she got into the sandpit to play with the kids the cat used to cover her up again, that would be cruel at this festive time of year.
Don't worry, the woman's alright like, I mean she wouldn't have been short of a drink now would she? She may have lost a few pounds granted, but at least she'd have had ample time to give the place a really good clean. You can read all about it here. They don't give us her name sadly, but I'd just love it if it was Fatima Arbuckle.
Snow Patrol
25/11/10 -- It's falling steadily here in North Yorks, and the sky looks heavily laden with plenty more of the white stuff.
The BBC are saying that this is the earliest widespread snowfall for 17 years. I assume they mean in England, where it matters. The Jocks are used to it aren't they, they've probably not even bothered taking the sunloungers in up there yet. And it's not like they've got an infrastructure to disrupt anyway is it?
Chris Fawkes (he's a nice Guy), from the BBC Weather Centre, says "5-13cm (2-5in) of snow was expected in low-lying areas later, but places like the North York Moors, which were particularly exposed to the north-east wind, could see falls of up to 20cm."
A spokesman for the national DIY chain Poltergeist-base said "snow shovels and wellington boots are flying off the shelves."
Euro Résumé
25/11/10 -- The single currency remains under pressure as traders seem spoilt for choice as to which country to whip next. Just in case you are getting confused here's an update on where we are now:
The PIIGS have lost an I as Ireland have now grasped the nettle, as of course also have Greece so the G has gone as well now. Incidentally reports circulating yesterday that Steve Jobs and Apple Corp were to step in and buy Ireland, slim it right down, give it a touchscreen and re-brand it as iLand appear to have been untrue.
So right, we're left with PIS at the moment, although Slovakia or Slovenia could easily join the party any time soon.
Reports this morning suggest that little old Belgium might be about to join this illustrious club after the premium to insure against it's debt rose by 5% yesterday. I don't know whether that gives us SPIB, BIPS or PIBS, but it probably doesn't matter as the smart money is now piling on the Portuguese to be the next country to fall. The cost of insuring against their debt is apparently 3.3 times greater than that of Belgium and two thirds higher than Spain's.
That leaves us with BIS, if Italy pull out and Austria, Latvia and Lithuania do the decent thing then we're left with BALLS.
