CBOT Close
29/11/10 -- Soybeans
Jan 11 soybeans closed at USD12.35, down 3 1/2 cents; Dec 10 soybean ,eal closed at USD336.30, down USD0.50; Dec 10 soybean oil closed at 49.87, down 3 points. The USDA export inspections report showed 48.948 million bushels inspected for export for the week ending 25/11 up 6.185 million from last week. A firm US dollar and some weekend rains in South America were negative, although traders were divided on the extent and likely benefit of the latter.
Corn
Dec 10 corn closed unchanged at USD5.38 1/4; Mar 11 corn closed at USD5.53 1/4, up 1/4 cent. The USDA export inspections showed 23.877 million bushels inspected for export for the week ending 25/11, a net of 529K bushels less than last week. Outside market influences were mixed with the dollar higher and the energy markets also higher. The USDA announced the sale of 120,000 MT of US corn to Mexico. Russia are said to be in the market to import grain, and specifically corn, from a variety of sources according to unconfirmed trade reports.
Wheat
Dec 10 CBOT wheat closed at USD6.50 1/4, up 2 cents; Dec 10 KCBT wheat closed at USD7.26 1/2, up 5 3/4 cents; Dec 10 MGEX wheat closed at USD7.36 1/2, up 2 1/2 cents. The USDA export inspections report showed 20.818 million bushels inspected for export for the week ending 25/11, a net of 7.033 million bushels more than last week. Wheat continues to gain on dryness in the southern plains and wet conditions in eastern Australia. The USDA crop progress report showed winter wheat emerged was 94%, up 3 points from last week and 2 points ahead of average. Conditions were 47% good/excellent, unchanged from last week but a whopping 16 points below last year.
EU Wheat Close
29/11/10 -- Jan11 London wheat closed GBP2.25 higher at GBP179.25/tonne, with Nov11 up GBP1.00 to GBP151.00/tonne. Jan11 Paris wheat rose EUR4.00 to EUR222.25/tonne and Nov11 was EUR2.25 higher to EUR199.25/tonne.
It was 27th March 2008 that a front month closed higher than this for London wheat. Ideas that UK wheat exports are careering out of control are starting to mount. Nobody knows for sure how much wheat is still on merchants' books to ship this season, but it looks likely that Defra's predicted 1.3 MMT has already left the country.
Widespread talk now is that 2 MMT will be exported during the current marketing year, although that figure also seems too low based on what has been shipped already.
However, reports that it is now cheaper to ship feed wheat into the country rather than buy it domestically should put a limit on the extent of further price rises.
Russia is in the market to import around 3-5 MMT of grain, according to various media reports. Argentina are in the frame to be one of the main sellers, with Ukraine not far behind. That's what the gossip suggests.
Even so, they reputedly have almost 10 MMT in intervention stocks, and discussions are ongoing as to whether - and at what price - to release those onto the market.
Winter seems to have finally arrived in Ukraine, with crops in generally much better condition than twelve months ago.
Early Call On Chicago
29/11/10 -- The overnight grains closed mostly firmer but well off session highs, with beans around 2c higher, wheat up 4-5c and corn 2-3c firmer.
Korean tensions seem to be easing after South Korea cancelled tomorrow's planned military exercise on the island attacked by the North. China has been vocal in it's determination to prevent things getting out of hand.
Concerns over EU debt problems haven't gone away despite the EUR85 billion bailout for Ireland.
A significant part of Argentine is dry and getting worse after weekend forecast rains disappointed, with QT Weather saying that "this overly dry trend is going to continue for at least the next several weeks."
There are also weather concerns for Australian wheat with persistent rains in the east proving to be a mixed blessing, delaying the harvest and potentially harming quality.
The US wheat crop isn't out of the woods yet either. The USDA will report on crop conditions after tonight's close.
There is widespread talk of Russia actively negotiating to buy grain from Argentina, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and beyond. There are also lots of ideas that spring plantings will not be able to fully compensate for the shortfall in what should have, but didn't, get planted in the winter.
That would potentially seem to put Russia out of the export market, certainly as the kind of large volume seller we have become used to in the past few years, until the second half of 2012.
China is also being mooted as a potential suitor for Argentine corn. Some reports also suggest that they bought more US soybeans over the weekend.
The USDA have just announced the sale of 120,000 MT of corn to Mexico.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: Beans up 2-3 cents, corn up 1 to 2 cents, and wheat up 4 to 6 cents.
EU Rapemeal Prices
29/11/10 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal.
Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading day:
| Dec10 | 212.00 | unch |
| Jan11 | 212.00 | +1.00 |
| Feb/Apr11 | 210.00 | unch |
| May/FH Jul11 | 208.00 | +1.00 |
| Aug/Oct11 | 181.00 | +1.00 |
| Nov11/Jan12 | 187.00 | +1.00 |
Snow Patrol#2
29/11/10 -- As per normal the annual trip to Devon to see the family coincided with some pretty chaotic travelling conditions on the way home Sunday afternoon and evening.
Things seem to have been made worse by the "we love a good panic" media actively encouraging people to ditch the motorways in favour of attempting to get home via some nearby towns and villages and handy little B roads.
"Did you pack that thermos flask full of tea, six sleeping bags, a collapsible shovel and some hot bacon sandwiches like we told you? What, you didn't? Oh dear, you my friend are going to die. The emergency services can't get through to you as they are snowed in at a 25th wedding anniversary at the Tann Hill Inn. They might make it through to you by the weekend, although you will be stiff as a board by then having already asphyxiated yourself on your exhaust fumes and subsequently choked on frozen vomit.....unless you exit the A1M at the next exit and take the B3132 18 miles up a very steep hill to the sleepy hamlet of Sprocket. We've had Betty Swallocks from Sprocket on the phone and she says that it's clear as a bell up there."
That pretty much sums up the local radio station's helpful advice last night.
CBOT Close - Friday
26/11/10 -- Soybeans
Jan 11 soybeans closed at USD12.38 1/2, down 16 1/2 cents; Mar 11 soybeans closed at USD12.47, down 15 3/4 cents; Dec 10 soybean meal closed at USD336.80, down USD3.40,
Dec 10 Soybean Oil closed at 49.90, down 34 points. Weekly export sales were 673,900 MT, below trade estimates for sales of 850,000 MT to 1.2 MMT. Featuring in amongst this week's sales was 40,000 MT to the UK. This week's number however doesn't include the monster 780,000 MT that China bought earlier in the week. The strong US dollar didn't help soybean's cause in a subdued trading session following on from yesterday's Thanksgiving holiday.
Corn
Dec 10 corn closed at USD5.38 1/4, down 1/2 cent; Mar 11 corn closed at USD5.53, down 3/4 cent; May 11 corn closed at USD5.60 3/4, down 3/4 cent. Export sales were up 55 percent from the four week average at 823,000 MT for 2010/11 delivery. That was towards the top end of trade estimates for sales of 400-900,000 MT. The Rosario Grains Exchange estimate the Argentine corn crop at 21-22 MMT this season, down slightly from last year and significantly below the 25 MMT currently estimated by the USDA. Even so they are still an export force to be reckoned with, and are apparently in talks with Russia to supply them with up to 3 MMT of corn in 2011.
Wheat
Dec 10 CBOT wheat closed at USD6.48 1/4, up 3/4 cent; Dec 10 KCBT wheat closed at USD7.20 3/4, up 1 3/4 cents; Dec 10 MGEX wheat closed at USD7.34, up 1 cent. Net weekly export sales were 745,200 MT, with Egypt taking 181,200 MT. Estimates were for sales of 500-800,000 MT. With Russian winter plantings significantly down there's a lot of pressure to expand spring sowing, however the President of the Russian Grain Union sees difficulties here due to a shortage of seed, fertilizer and machinery. SovEcon's early estimate on grain production in 2011 is 80 MMT, still far short of production of around 100 MMT in 2008 and 2009, and only just above the level of domestic consumption of around 77 MMT.
EU Wheat Close
26/11/10 -- EU wheat futures closed mostly higher Friday with Jan11 London wheat ending up GBP2.35 at GBP177.00/tonne and Nov11 London wheat GBP1.00 at GBP150.00/tonne. Jan11 Paris wheat closed unchanged at EUR218.25/tonne and Nov11 Paris wheat was up EUR1.00 to EUR197.00/tonne.
This was the highest close for a front month London wheat contract for more than 2 1/2 years as the gap between it and Paris wheat continues to erode.
Based on Friday's closing exchange rate of 1.1760 for the pound against the euro Jan11 London feed wheat's close was around EUR208/tonne, a discount of only EUR10/tonne to Paris milling wheat. Back in August that gap was EUR35/tonne.
Basically it is starting to look like this season's UK wheat crop has been oversold, based on the ferocious pace of exports this season.
EU wheat exports also continue at a pace, with Brussels on Thursday reporting that export licences for the marketing year to date are running almost 36% ahead of year ago levels.
A weak pound also supported UK prices, with the pound sinking two cents against the dollar on the day to end at 1.5580, its lowest in more than two months.
