EU Wheat Close
20/12/10 -- Jan London wheat closed GBP1.50 higher at GBP192.00/tonne and new crop Nov was up GBP2.50 at GBP162.00/tonne. Jan Paris wheat closed up EUR4.75 at EUR241.00/tonne, whilst new crop Nov climbed EUR3.25 to EUR216.00/tonne.
In the UK we are now within just GBP0.50 of the highest close for a front month contract of all time, GBP192.50/tonne set on 25th Feb 2008. Another milestone today was the July future closing at GBP200.00/tonne.
Continuing with the local theme, the RPA said today that 14,970 MT of barley was sold out of UK intervention last week, leaving 136,000 MT still available for purchase.
Snow and freezing temperatures continue to dog the UK with lows of around minus 14/15C forecast overnight. Late pre-Christmas demand for feed seems to have kicked in over the weekend after another widespread dusting of the white stuff.
Even those livestock farmers who thought that they'd have enough of their own forage to see them through until spring now seem to be worrying over how quickly their stocks are diminishing.
The Russian Grain Union's president said that their grain export ban may extend beyond the existing July 1st deadline. Surprise, surprise. He also forecast that it might be cold this winter. Winter grain plantings are down 14%, he added.
Conflicting reports are coming out of Australia, with some saying that recent wheat crop downgrades have been over estimated. Others suggest the opposite, only time will tell.
EU Rapemeal Prices
20/12/10 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal.
Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading day:
| Dec10 | 219.00 | +2.00 |
| Jan11 | 219.00 | +2.00 |
| Feb/Apr11 | 219.00 | +2.00 |
| May/FH Jul11 | 218.00 | +1.00 |
| Aug/Oct11 | 186.00 | +3.00 |
| Nov11/Jan12 | 188.00 | unch |
| Nov11/Apr12 | 189.00 | unch |
Early Call On Chicago
20/12/10 -- The overnight grains began the week in bullish mood, with beans and wheat ending around 10-12c higher and corn up 4-5c.
Crude oil is around half a dollar higher and the US dollar broadly unchanged.
The outlook for Argentina is for the most part hot and dry. Weekend rains totalled 1-3 inches in Santa Fe and Santiago del Estero, 0.50-1.25in. in Entre Rios, and 0.15-0.60 in Cordoba, Buenos Aires and La Pampa, say QT Weather.
The week ahead will see rains continue in the far north, with heat rebuilding and no rain until Thursday in the south. Temperatures will remain above normal reaching 95-
100 degrees most areas, they add.
Mixed reports continue to come out of Australia, with some suggesting that the 50-60% downgrades to wheat in the east might be overstated.
China has asked it's millers producers to cap flour prices until Chinese New Year in February. There are some ideas that this will lead to reduced demand for wheat, as we appear to be seeing with soybean demand after restrictions were introduce on soyoil prices.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans up 10-12c, wheat up 8-10c, corn up 3-5c.
Bearing in mind that a long holiday and month & year end is looming further profit-taking could be on the cards this week. Even if we do close higher tonight, then there's always turnaround Tuesday to look forward to tomorrow.
Sweet Crisis Worsens
20/12/10 -- Just days after the Russian Ministry confirmed that almost their entire sherbet crop had been wiped out by drought, the Australian Wine Gum Board have said that heavy rains in the east of the country would see supplies of the fruity chew drop to the lowest levels since the war.
"Farmers had been hoping for a bumper wine gum crop until the rains started," they said. However, non-stop rain since July has led to almost the entire crop being downgraded to "those black ones that nobody likes," they say.
It's just the latest in a series of devastating blows to have been dealt to the global confectionery market recently, said one analyst.
"Only last month the Ivory Coast's entire output of coffee cremes was wiped out after accidentally being left on the dashboard of a Ford Fiesta in full sunlight for three days," he added.
One UK sweet shop owner was recently dragged from his shop and almost beaten to death with a Curly Wurly after locals accused him of profiteering after he increased the price of a Milky Way from 27p to 29p "totally without warning".
The government have appealed for calm, and have assured elderly people that there are sufficient supplies of extra strong mints on hand to get them through the winter.
The sick will also be issued with one packet of Tunes each, which they will be asked to suck very slowly with the wrappers still on, in line with government guidelines until the situation improves, said a Whitehall official.
More as we get it...
Video Nasty
20/12/10 -- A bankrupt Russian poultry firm, responsible for producing more than half the chicken in the Kursk region of the country, ordered the wholesale slaughter of more than a million chickens over the weekend after they ran out of money to buy feed.
According to this report in the Moscow Times, they then posted video footage of the mass inhumane slaughter on YouTube in a bid to obtain state aid. I've a feeling that the state aid they are likely to get may come in a .45 calibre* format:
I think I'll just have the salad
* Which reminds me that I read that the Russian State Circus have just fired their human cannonball act. They'll find it hard to replace a man of his calibre methinks.
Australian Harvest Latest
20/12/10 -- I'm indebted to my friend Gail Martell at Martell Crop Projections for emailing me these images courtesy of the Western Australia Grains Group (WAGG) of the ongoing harvest situation Down Under. It doesn't exactly look what you would call plain sailing. Blimey!
Enterprise Or Sacrilege?
20/12/10 -- Wandering around a small nearby village greengrocers/general store at the weekend my eye was caught by several large clear polythene sacks containing some greenish "pellets". The largest "pellet" I've ever seen in fact at around 50mm across.
The very helpful young man was delighted to assist. "We sell these bottles of extra virgin rapeseed oil, and that's the waste by-product," he informed us thrusting a brochure into my hand.
It made pretty impressive reading too. The "briquettes" are made in Yorkshire, from rapeseed grown in Yorkshire and only release the same CO2 back into the Yorkshire atmosphere that it recently sucked out of it.
They also have twice the energy of logs and burn twice as hot and for three times as long, they say. They produce no soot and virtually no ash, and what they do produce can be spread onto the garden as fertiliser, they add.
A 12.5kg bag is retailing at GBP8, similar to smokeless coal, that's GBP640/tonne. Not bad for a "waste" product, and more than three times better than selling it as an expeller in meal form into the feed trade.
I bought a sack and tried a few out last night, just out of interest, and they burned quite well. Does that mean I'm turning into Drax?
Incidentally, the cold pressed oil comes in at GBP4.95 for a 250ml bottle, that's around GBP21,500/tonne by my calculations.
Obviously there are some substantial costs involved in terms of bottling/pelleting and distribution not to mention scale, nevertheless the figures make interesting reading.
