Nutter Magnet
22/02/11 -- I'm out travelling by train up to Bonny Jockland today. I haven't been on a train for some time, but thought hey they have wifi and everything these days, lets give it s go. What could possibly go wrong?
I arrived at Harrogate station in plenty of time to start my journey, I do like to place safe. Bought myself a bottle of Lucozade and a copy of the Telegraph and found myself a seat next to an attractive young blonde to wait for the train.
When I say next to I mean "comfortably next too" - I wouldn't want to invade anybody's personal space. Especially whist they are eating a sandwich. The was enough space between us for a small child say, or possible Posh Spice. She put the container housing the uneaten half of her cheese & pickle on brown there, just to say "don't come any closer than that Grandad." Legs were never going to touch.
Next thing someone shouts "Johnny!" at the top of his voice. Nothing too unusual about that you might think. The guy uttering such a relatively commonplace cry came wandering by. He was muttering. Sometimes you can just tell can't you?
"Johnny" he shouted again. Now at this point I was prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt, but things went downhill rapidly from there. Was he shouting his mate, introducing himself to the waiting throng or looking for a condom machine? Or was he, more dangerously, a fully fledged all paid up member of nutters anonymous? Then I spotted it and I had my answer.
He was carrying a carrier bag. Emblazoned on the bag was LIVERPOOL FC. We were clearly dealing with a badge-carrying nutter. Now i don't have anything against people with mental health problems, it's Kopites with mental health problems I don't like.
Johnny sauntered over towards me and the blonde, dribbling heavily. He had that deranged look in his eye (the one that was looking at us anyway). We both gave him our best "don't you feckin sit here you nutter" looks. Hers clearly wasn't good enough.
I mean it was only big enough for a small child and it also contained a half eaten sandwich, but Johnny went for it anyway. Suddenly we were touching legs, except it was Johnny's legs that we were both touching as the blonde scooped up her sarnie tutting loudly.
She clearly wasn't going to hang around to see what happened next. There was every chance that Johnny was about to unload 30 years of pent up sexual frustration all over the two of us and the rest of platform three by the looks of him.
She stood up and started to flounce off, sarnie and all.
"Minge!" shouted Johnny. Honest. I thought give her a break Johnny - it's her sandwich she can do what she wants with it.
She was ten paces away before Johnny's next pearl of wisdom.
"Fanny!" he shouted this time. I though blimey, he knows her name, how unlikely is that and it's sooo nice to see the old fashioned names coming back isn't it?
I'd had enough and got up to leave as well.
"Fat bastard!" shouted Johnny.
I thought come on mate, that's a bit harsh, I mean she could do with losing a few pounds and everything, but she's no bloater.
EU Wheat Closing Comments
21/02/11 -- EU wheat closed down with Mar London wheat falling GBP1.40 to GBP203.60/tonne and new crop Nov GBP3.55 lower at GBP170.50/tonne. Mar Paris wheat fell EUR2.75 to EUR260.00/tonne, with Nov down EUR4.75 to EUR230.00/tonne.
Old crop fell less than new crop as 2010/11 stocks remain tight. London wheat was GBP3-5/tonne lower for much of the day, even on old crop, so once again tonight's official close of "only" GBP1.40 lower is somewhat surprising.
US markets were closed, offering little in the way of guidance after closing heavily lower on Friday night.
Although Russia may well remain out of the export market beyond the existing summer deadline, Ukraine look set to be back in the fray as an aggressive marketeer. Their winter wheat crop is rated at more than 94% good/satisfactory, a sharp improvement on twelve months ago. They will of course be very hungry for dollars by then.
Drought conditions in China have improved somewhat, according to the Ministry there. Wheat production forecasts are moving up in Argentina, to around 14.5-15.0 MMT, almost double last season's output.
Perhaps it's outside markets that offer wheat it's best chance of scaling to new heights?
Escalating unrest in North Africa and the Middle East saw Brent crude oil push above USD105/barrel for the first time since October 2008. Libya exports more than a million barrels of crude every day and tribal leaders there have threatened to cut that supply to a trickle if Gaddafi continues to use brute force to attempt to quell the current uprising.
What A Boring Day
21/02/11 -- Bored, bored, bored, bored. We don't half miss the Septics when they aren't around don't we?
Even the sight of London wheat falling out of bed again has failed to excite me today. It might not be too long before I can crack my "Baby, baby, where's all the two's gone?" joke though, so the thought of that has cheered me up a little bit.
Not cheering up anyone is the situation in Libya, however. Nymex crude is up above USD90/barrel and Brent over USD105/barrel on the back of that.
There were deaths and protests in Morocco too yesterday. The market seems to be struggling to decide whether this is bullish, bearish or neutral as far as grains are concerned.
Iraq are tendering for 100,000 MT of wheat to help try and ensure that it's own stocks stay buoyant. Who will want to sell it, and will they be in a position to take physical delivery when the time comes?
"Hello, is that the ships agency? I'd like to charter a boat to take 50,000 tonnes of wheat to a country possibly in the middle of a civil war whilst simultaneously shelling out hundreds of thousands of pounds in demurrage please."
When you look at it like that maybe this thing is bearish?
Sherwood Forest Sold To America
21/02/11 -- The government have announced that Sherwood Forest has been sold to an American conglomerate who plan to redevelop the site into the world's largest theme park. Robin Hood Prince Of Thieves Land, as the forest will be renamed, will contain the longest roller coaster ride in Europe and is expected to attract 5 million visitors a day.
The forest may have to undergo "some minor redevelopment" say the company behind the project, but they insist that every tree that they chop down will be replaced by and authentic American plastic one.
"We're gonna give you people the biggest goddam theme park in the world, which is worth far more than a few poxy old trees," said Chip Chop, the man behind the project.
EU Rapemeal Prices
21/02/11 -- Rapemeal prices are extending recent declines today. Rapeseed prices are also down EUR4-5/tonne today, front month May is down almost EUR50/tonne from its Jan 12 high.
Here's the latest guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session:
| Feb11 | 202.00 | -1.00 |
| Mar/Apr11 | 202.00 | -1.00 |
| May/FH Jul11 | 199.00 | -4.00 |
| Aug/Oct11 | 182.00 | -4.00 |
| Nov11/Jan12 | 188.00 | -2.00 |
| Nov/Apr12 | 189.00 | -3.00 |
If I Could Turn Back Time
21/02/11 -- The government now say that they are thinking about mucking about with time itself, according to this report from the Beeb.
The plan would make it darker later in the mornings and lighter later in the evenings "to encourage tourism" apparently.
Amusingly it would probably mean making it dark in Scotland in the middle of the winter until about half past three in the afternoon. They'd get their lights switched on then for a couple of hours, just to give them enough time to deep fry a few Mars Bars for tea, before they'd all have to go back to their ginger beds again at half past five.
It's a winner in my book.
Morning Vibe
21/02/11 -- It's looking like it's gonna be a relatively quiet one with the US shut for President's Day. London and Paris wheat have opened sharply lower, following the late sell-off in Chicago markets late on Friday.
May London wheat has opened GBP3.60/tonne lower, with Paris wheat down EUR3.75-6.00/tonne in early trade. Volatility certainly seems to have increased in the past week or so.
Ukraine say that more than 94% of it's winter crops are in good/satisfactory condition, including 94.3% of it's wheat, 81.6% of it's barley and 91.6% of it's rapeseed.
The Chinese Ministry say that drought in it's main wheat growing areas has declined from 7.73 million hectares on Feb 9th to 6.12 million hectares as of Sunday as it steps up it's irrigation efforts.
The minutes of the BoE's monthly MPC meeting are out on Wednesday. It seems likely that they will reveal more of a leaning towards a modest interest rate rise than recent meetings have. That could lead to some further sterling appreciation later in the week.
The pound currently stands at 1.6228, we haven't been above 1.63 since January 2010.
Brent crude oil is up USD2.50/barrel this morning on Libyan unrest, with front month April hitting USD104.98/barrel, it's highest since October 2008.
Interesting factlet d'jour: 5.98 million lots of corn futures traded on CBOT last month - equivalent to 2.4 times the entire US crop. In just one month, and that doesn't include a further 2.35 million options trades!
