CBOT Close
01/04/11 -- Soybeans: May 11 soybeans closed at USD13.93 3/4, down 16 1/2 cents; Nov 11 soybeans closed at USD13.89 1/4, down 5 3/4 cents; May 11 soybean meal closed at USD360.90, down USD9.80, May 11 soybean oil closed at 58.68, down 10 points. Beans gave up a portion of yesterday's gains and meal gave up almost all of them. On the week as a whole old crop beans were around 36c higher and new crop up 39c or so. The soy complex fell despite another strong performance from corn as the trade concentrated more on export business switching to South America rather than tight old crop supplies. Talk that China may be cancelling or at least deferring existing purchases added some negative sentiment.
Corn: May 11 corn closed at USD7.36, up 42 3/4 cents; Dec 11 corn closed at USD6.37 1/2, up 12 1/4 cents. Nearby corn opened up the extended daily 45c limit and stayed there for most of the day before falling beans and wheat led to a bit of profit taking ahead of the weekend. Funds were said to have bought around 40,000 contracts on the day, extending their net long to around 350,000 lots. The old crop/new crop spread widened as traders balance the very tight 2010/11 stocks situation against the second highest plantings since the war for the 2011/12 marketing year. Old crop gained around 47c on the week, with new crop up around 28c.
Wheat: May 11 CBOT wheat closed at USD7.59 1/2, down 3 3/4 cents; May 11 KCBT wheat closed at USD9.06 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents; May 11 MGEX wheat closed at USD9.22 1/2, down 1 1/4 cents. Nearby Chicago wheat gained around 26c on the week, with Kansas up 51c and MGEX up 41c. Wheat remains supported by spiralling corn, the poor state of the US HRW wheat crop on the southern Plains and potential delays to spring wheat plantings further north. Despite a slightly negative report for wheat from the USDA yesterday it seems unlikely that US wheat prices can fall much whilst corn levels are rising so rapidly. The front month corn/wheat spread tightened to 23 1/2c, a month ago it was 74 3/4c and four months ago at the end of 2010 it was 168 3/4c.
EU Grains Close
01/04/11 -- May London wheat closed GBP2.50/tonne lower at GBP199.50/tonne with new crop Nov down GBP0.05 to GBP167.50/tonne. May Paris wheat fell EUR0.25/tonne to EUR239.75/tonne whilst Nov was down EUR0.25/tonne to EUR212.75/tonne.
On the week as a whole May London wheat was up GBP2.25/tonne whilst Nov rose GBP5.75/tonne. May Paris milling wheat climbed EUR3.00/tonne with Nov rising EUR5.75/tonne.
US corn futures were limit up for the second session in a row, lending support to EU grains, following yesterday's bullish USDA data. Front month June Paris corn rose EUR4.25/tonne today, adding to yesterday's EUR7.75/tonne gains.
In the UK, ADAS say that the exceptionally dry March and recent warmer weather places crop development ahead of last year. Around 40% of the spring barley is now in the ground nationally, with plantings 85-95% complete in the south, they say.
Showers are expected over the weekend and early next week all across most of Europe, which should improve conditions in the UK, northern France and Germany.
Copa-Cogeca peg the EU-27 wheat crop at 138 MMT, up 2.3% from 134.9 MMT last season. The UK will account for 15.8 MMT of that, a 6.3% increase, they say. Dutch analysts Hoofdproductschap Akkerbouw estimate the EU-27 wheat crop even higher at 140.62 MMT, placing UK production at 16.11 MMT, 8.6% up on 2010.
EU-27 exports meanwhile continue unabated, with Brussels issuing soft wheat export licences for 480,000 MT in the past week, bringing the marketing year-to-date total to 15.4 MMT, up 15% on a year ago. Once again France picked up the lion's share accounting for 323.500 MT of the weekly total.
Durum wheat exports are 136% up on year ago levels at 1.3 MMT and EU barley exports stand more than four times higher than in 2009/10 at 3.7 MMT.
EU Rapemeal Prices
01/04/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal.
Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session:
| Apr11 | 192.00 | +2.00 |
| May/FH Jul11 | 193.00 | +3.00 |
| Aug/Oct11 | 183.00 | +3.00 |
| Nov11/Jan12 | 187.00 | +3.00 |
| Nov/Apr12 | 188.00 | +3.00 |
Ask Nogger
01/04/11 -- Today's problem comes from Andrew from Chichester, he writes:
Q: Dear Uncle Nogger, I wonder if I can ask your advice as you are doing one hell of a job in your Uncle Nogger column. I have great difficulty getting up in the morning and as a consequence do not get into work until early afternoon. I have tried cockerels and alarm clocks to wake me up all to no avail. Can you suggest any ways which could help me please as I am worried that it may lead to other vices.
A: You could try hooking up with MrsN#1, Andrew. The thought of her crawling all over you at seven in the morning is enough to have you pinging out of bed at 6.30am with no difficulty whatsoever. Think of Clarissa Dickson Wright in a shortcut chiffon peephole babydoll nightie after a very heavy might on brandy and babycham and you're halfway there.
CBOT Close
31/03/11 -- Soybeans: May 11 soybeans closed at USD14.10 1/4, up 38 1/4 cents; Nov 11 soybeans closed at USD13.95, up 31 1/2 cents; May 11 soybean meal closed at USD370.70, up USD10.20; May 11 soybean oil closed at 58.78, up 146 points. The bean acreage number of 76.6 million from the USDA was bullish versus trade projections, yet beans closed well off early intra-day highs. Weekly export sales were quite poor at 144,800 MT old crop and 113,000 MT new crop. Old crop stocks are looking rather tight at 1.250 billion bushels as at March 1st.
Corn: Corn was limit up on everything with May 11 closing at USD6.93 1/4, up 30 cents, and Dec 11 at USD6.25 1/4, up 30 cents. The quarterly stocks number surprised the trade at 6.52 billion bushels, lower than the lowest trade estimate. Weekly export sales were also huge at 2.23 MMT, although that should have been factored in based on recent announcements from the USDA. Spring plantings though were higher than anticipated at 92.2 million, up 4 million on last year.
Wheat: May 11 CBOT wheat closed at USD7.63 1/4, up 36 cents; May 11 KCBT wheat closed at USD9.08, up 46 cents; May 11 MGEX wheat closed at USD9.23 3/4, up 37 3/4 cents. There was nothing particularly bullish in today's USDA numbers. All wheat plantings were seen a little higher than expected at 58 million acres. Stocks were also a little higher than expected at 1.424 billion bushels and weekly export sales were on the low side at 409,500 MT. Even so corn hype dragged wheat higher.
EU Grains Climb On Back Of USDA Data
31/03/11 -- EU grains closed with May London wheat up GBP3.00/tonne to GBP202.00/tonne and with new crop Nov climbing GBP5.05 to GBP167.55/tonne. May Paris wheat rose EUR3.50/tonne to EUR240.00/tonne and Nov was up EUR6.50/tonne to EUR213.00/tonne.
A bullishly construed set of data early afternoon from the USDA was the catalyst after futures had been mostly lower in the morning.
There are some concerns over dryness in some parts of Europe, and worries that winterkill may have caused damage in parts of Germany and Poland, but today was all about the USDA numbers.
The data for old crop corn was undeniably bullish, with March 1st stocks pegged beneath even the lowest trade estimate at 6.52 billion bushels (165.6 MMT), and weekly export sales coming in at 2.23 MMT - a marketing-year high.
CBOT corn opened limit up (+30c) and stayed there. At the close of the EU markets corn was synthetically worth a further 30c higher than that.
However looking further forward, 2011 spring US corn plantings were pegged at 92.2 million acres, up 4 million on last year, above the average trade guess and close to the upper end of the range of trade estimates. Today's price action is only going to encourage further planting increases.
With a significant doubt over the continuation of the ethanol blenders tax credit in the US being extended beyond the end of 2011, corn demand in 2012 at these levels is questionable.
On the face of it the USDA's wheat data was actually bearish, with higher plantings and stocks than expected. Weekly export sales were also disappointing. Corn made sure that these factors were largely ignored, although legitimate weather concerns remain for US wheat on the Southern Plains.
CBOT Early Call
31/03/11 -- The bulls have the upper hand again it would seem judging by the early reaction to this afternoon's eagerly awaited USDA numbers. Early calls from the floor are: corn up 20-30c, beans up 50-70c, wheat up 5-10c.
Are things really that bullish?
Corn:
Spring plantings were pegged at 92.2 million, up 4 million on last year and close to the upper end of the range of trade estimates. March 1st stocks however were below even the lowest trade estimate at 6.52 billion bushels. Weekly export sales were huge ar 2.23 MMT, but then again we already knew of 1.5 MMT of that from last Friday so the figure isn't really that surprising. China were not confirmed as a buyer of any of that volume. Given the stock situation we should see the old crop premiums widen further over new crop this afternoon.
Soybeans:
Spring plantings are seen lower than the average trade guess, although not by too much, and some 800,000 below last year. Stocks are now also starting to get squeaky tight, so it may come as some relief to see export sales fall below expectations at just 257,800 MT, with China accounting for 181,300 MT of those.
Wheat:
All wheat plantings are seen a little higher than expected and towards the upper range of trade estimates at 58 million acres. The question now is how many of those will get abandoned? Stocks were also a little higher than expected and weekly exports were lower than anticipated, making wheat the poor relation of the three.
Now that that little lot is out of the way the trade will refocus on the weather. With wet and cold hampering early planting progress in the Midwest and dry conditions potentially harming HRW wheat in the Southern Plains.
