Computers
05/04/11 -- They're great when everything goes according to plan and they all more or less look after themselves, aren't they? Today however is not one of those days. All I need now is for Richard Branston to pull the plug again and that would really make my day. Normal blogging will be resumed as soon as possible.
Chicago Close
04/04/11 -- Soybeans: May 11 soybeans closed at USD13.84, down 9 3/4 cents; Nov 11 soybeans were at USD13.89, down 1/4 cent; May 11 soybean meal ended at USD357.00, down USD3.90; May 11 soybean oil closed at 58.88, up 20 points. Beans were the poor relation on ideas that Chinese demand is switching to South America. There is continued talk of China cancellations/switching of existing purchases, that may lead the USDA to cut export projections for the current marketing year in Friday's WASDE report. The Brazilian harvest is well advanced at 67% complete, according to Celeres.
Corn: May 11 corn closed at USD7.60 1/4, up 24 1/4; Dec 11 corn finished at USD6.45 1/2, up 8 cents. The old crop/new crop spread continues to widen as the trade balances an extremely tight old crop supply situation against the second highest plantings since WWII for new crop. Fund buying was strong again, they were estimated to have bought 25,000 contracts today, meaning that they may have increased their net long by the best part of 100,000 lots since Thursday afternoon's USDA report. Friday's report from the USDA may cut ending stocks even further than they did last week the trade reckons.
Wheat: May 11 CBOT wheat ended at USD7.90, up 30 1/2 cents; May 11 KCBT wheat was at USD9.48, up 41 1/2 cents; May 11 MGEX Wheat finished at USD9.61 1/2, up 39 cents. It was another bad weekend weatherwise for US winter wheat, with high temperatures and strong winds likely causing further damage to an already vulnerable crop. After the close the USDA reported just 37% of the US winter wheat crop in good/excellent condition, compared to 65% a year ago. That was the lowest since 2002. They pegged 32% of the crop in poor/very poor condition against 6% last year.
Ask Nogger
04/04/11 -- Today's problem comes from Phil G of Ely, Phil writes:
Q: Dear Uncle Nogger, I have been reading your column with interest, and hope your vast experience and intuition may be able to help me. There is a large trade dinner this week in Cambridge which I very much look forward to, but history suggests my inadequate capacity for beer is likely to cause embarrassment. Furthermore, not only do I tend to fall over after two or three pints, but I’m also blessed with a tiny tank which, once full, needs emptying every ten minutes or so. How can I improve my staying power and be more like my peers?
A: I think you might have "come to the wrong shop" with this one Phil. I find that Tena Man are a God-send on these occasions, with the added bonus that if you use enough of them you also immediately adopt the appearance of Linford Christie in a dinner suit. This is especially useful in these modern times where females appear to have infiltrated the previously all-male bastion that is the grain trade. They're only in it for one reason Phil, and that is to meet incontinent two shandies and I'm anybody's Adonis-like guys like us. A hosepipe and a couple of large pedal bin liners also make an excellent temporary catheter whilst the speeches are on, according to my North Yorks medical correspondent - Potatofarmermike of Scarborough.
EU Grains Close
04/04/11 -- EU grains closed with May London wheat up GBP4.25/tonne to GBP203.75/tonne and with new crop Nov climbing GBP3.70 to GBP171.20/tonne. May Paris wheat rose EUR6.25/tonne to EUR246.00/tonne and Nov was up EUR4.50/tonne to EUR217.25/tonne.
London wheat is now around GBP10/tonne off contract high closes set mid-February, with Paris wheat more like EUR30/tonne away.
Showers were reported in all but south central Europe over the weekend with more expected today before rains push eastward later in the week. That will have helped winter crops, but not made up for the deficit encountered during the past few months.
Things have been particularly bad in northern Germany where only 10-30% of normal rainfall fell in March.
US winter wheat is under severe stress in the southern Plains. Dodge City, Kansas, hit 94 F yesterday - setting a record for the date. Gusty winds and low humidity are also giving wheat growers in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas a serious headache, report Martell Crop Projections.
Further north in spring wheat areas "persistent cold and snow has set back the planting dates, jeopardizing chances for a bumper harvest. North Dakota growers do not expect to start fieldwork till April 25. Planting would follow perhaps 3 weeks later," they add.
US corn reached a near three year high today on tight stocks and bumper demand, that should make inroads into America's ample wheat stockpiles this spring/summer with the Chicago corn/wheat spread getting close to parity.
Early Call On Chicago
04/04/11 -- The overnight grains were firmer, with corn hitting a more than two year high on continued concerns about extremely tight old crop supplies. Corn was up around 12c on old crop and 5c on new crop. Wheat was around 12-13c higher and soybeans up 4-5c.
Outside markets are firmer, with Brent crude nearing USD120/barrel and gold, copper and silver also higher.
It was another dry weekend in the southern Plains combined with high winds that will have potentially caused more damage to ailing winter wheat. The USDA will report on crop conditions after the close tonight in what probably won't make pretty reading. That may support wheat tonight and again in the morning once the figures are known. Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas wheat are all looking in a pretty sorry state.
Meanwhile in the northern Plains cold and wet conditions aren't doing spring wheat plantings any favours either.
Russian spring grain plantings are making slow progress, at only around half of last year's pace due to the late arrival of spring.
Some welcome rain has arrived over the weekend for western Europe which will push eastwards as the week wears on.
Sowing of Australian winter grains will get started at the end of the month and last through until June under what looks like almost ideal conditions. Winter wheat plantings are expected to be up almost half a million hectares on last year.
The USDA are out on Friday with their world supply and demand numbers so we may end up treading a bit of water again this week until those are out.
Before that we get the latest weekly export numbers on Thursday. Any appearance by a certain Far Eastern buyer amongst the corn sales would get the market all excited. Soybean sales may be a bit flat again, offering further evidence that Chinese demand has switched to South America.
Beans look set to be the follower today also on reports that China is cancelling and/or deferring existing purchases of US beans.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session sees wheat up 12-14c, corn up 10-15c and soybeans 3-5c higher.
EU Rapemeal Prices
04/04/11 -- Here's the latest guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day:
| Apr11 | 192.00 | unch |
| May/FH Jul11 | 192.00 | -1.00 |
| Aug/Oct11 | 181.00 | -2.00 |
| Nov11/Jan12 | 186.00 | -1.00 |
| Nov/Apr12 | 187.00 | -1.00 |
Morning Muse
04/04/11 -- In the UK March unofficially finished up as the driest in more than 50 years, according to the BBC. In my part of North Yorkshire we got 11.4mm of rain last month, compared with the average of 66.6mm.
There's been a bit of rain around over the weekend though, with more in the forecast today, especially in the west.
A band of rain stretching from Scandinavia through France and all the way down to southern Spain brought some welcome moisture for northern France yesterday. That front is pushing eastwards today, and may also bring some rain to central parts of Germany this afternoon. After that a largely dry and fairly warm week is in store much of Europe.
Growers in Australia are gearing up for winter crop plantings, with eastern Australia forecast to receive above average rainfall at least until June. Potentially near record winter wheat plantings are expected on the back of high world prices and much better than normal sub soil moisture levels. Rapeseed area may also increase at the expense of barley.
Ukraine’s Farm Ministry report 55% of the country’s winter crops in good condition, with 38% satisfactory, and 7% poor.
The USDA are out after the close of CBOT tonight with their first weekly crop progress report of 2011. It's already a given that winter wheat conditions are going to be bad, it may just be that seeing them in writing might somehow make things look worse.
The overnight Globex market is firmer across the board, with corn posting fresh two year highs this morning. May is currently up 13c at 7.49c/bu, 85 3/4c or 13% higher than last Wednesday night's close - immediately prior to the USDA's stocks numbers coming out.
Wheat is around 12c higher this morning, with beans up 8c or so. The USDA are out on Friday with their April WASDE report.
London wheat has opened with Nov11 trading up around GBP2/2.50 in early exchanges, still around GBP30/tonne below old crop levels.
