Chicago Close
18/04/11 -- Soybeans: May soybeans were up 12 1/2c to USD13.44 1/4; Nov 11 Soybeans closed at USD13.49 1/4, up 9 1/2 cents. Beans rose on spillover support from wheat despite a sharply lower stock market after Standard & Poor's cut their ratings outlook on the US from stable to negative. Brazil's harvest is heading into the home stretch, and Argentina's is now more than a third complete. Beans look overvalued as Rabobank say that China will only import 53 MMT of soybeans this year, 4 MMT less than the USDA's latest estimate. Wheat planting delays in the northern Plains may also lead to increased soybean acres getting planted.
Corn: May corn ended up 9 3/4c at USD7.51 3/4; Dec corn was up 12 1/4c at USD6.68 1/4. Rain, snow and freezing temperatures are hardly getting US corn plantings off to a flyer. After the close the USDA reported only 7% of the US corn crop was in the ground as of Sunday. Progress is very slow in the north. "The Midwest weather has deteriorated badly, turning cold and wet, pointing to corn planting delays. Normally seeding begins around April 20, picking up momentum late in April and early May. Wet field conditions have worsened on the weekend with bouts of rain and snow showers. Temperatures are sharply colder in the northern areas, dropping soil temperatures below the 50 F threshold for germination," say Martell Crop Projections.
Wheat: CBOT May wheat rose 30 3/4c to USD7.75 a bushel; KCBT May gained 30 1/2c to USD8.96; MGEX May jumped 25c to USD9.14. Wheat gained on drought in Kansas and the southern Plains, too much moisture and freezing temperatures further north and concerns over dryness in Europe. The USDA pegged 36% of the US winter wheat crop in good/excellent condition after the close, unchanged from a week ago but well below the 69% reported a year ago. Strong weekly export inspections of 35.7 million bushels added support, as too did Russia dismissing talk of an early return to the grain export market.
EU Grains Close
18/04/11 -- EU grains closed higher across the board with May London wheat up GBP5.50/tonne to GBP212.50/tonne and with new crop Nov rising GBP6.25/tonne to GBP170.75/tonne. May Paris wheat rose EUR7.75/tonne to EUR246.00/tonne and Nov was EUR9.00/tonne higher to EUR217.00/tonne.
Tonight's close was a new record high for a front month for London wheat, and also say the May contract get within GBP1.50/tonne of the lifetime contract high.
A warm and dry weekend, with a forecast for more of the same for the remainder of the week for western Europe set the tone.
"Very low rainfall has occurred in western and northern Europe during the past 6 weeks. Warmth is keeping evaporation elevated, although wheat is holding up better than barley and rapeseed in the super-dry areas. The forecast is not hopeful for soaking rain this week either, with just a few scattered showers possible, warmth should also persist. The Eastern Europe forecast is better, calling for moderate rain for Poland, Romania, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary late in week," say Martell Crop Projections.
Meanwhile in the US weekend rains in the top HRW wheat producing state of Kansas were a bit disappointing and further north the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies are wet and cold preventing timely spring plantings.
"North Dakota producers already anticipated a 2-week delay in fieldwork with a projected starting date April 25. That date will now be pushed back further. Similar wet and cold field conditions exist in Alberta, Canada's top canola province and second leading spring wheat producer," they add.
Shewantsoneofthose
18/04/11 -- Stuck for a useful and original birthday or anniversary present for the missus? Then look no further, always looking for ways to offer blog readers something new and innovative, I think I can safely guarantee you that she won't already have one of these:
Titter ye not
Early Call On Chicago
18/04/11 -- The overnight grains closed mixed, with wheat around 10-12c firmer, corn 2-3c lower and beans fractions either side of unchanged.
Crude oil is down a dollar and a half and the dollar is a bit steadier.
Wheat was up on lower than anticipated weekend rains in Kansas, and a growing awareness that European grain crops are starting to suffer from lack of rain too.
The northern Plains and Canadian Prairies have the opposite problem.
The USDA will report after the close tonight on winter wheat crop conditions and corn planting progress.
Rabobank say that China will only import 53 MMT of soybeans this year, 4 MMT less than the USDA's latest prediction. The Chinese central bank increased bank reserve requirements again this weekend.
Ukraine say that almost 94% of it's winter grains are in good/satisfactory condition.
Russia dismiss talk of an early return to the grain export market, saying that the embargo will last until July at the least.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: wheat up 10-12c, corn down 2-3c old crop and up 3-5c new crop, beans mixed.
EU Rapemeal Prices
18/04/11 -- Here's the latest guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day:
| Apr11 | unq | n/a |
| May11 | 184.00 | +4.00 |
| May/FH Jul11 | 184.00 | +2.00 |
| Aug/Oct11 | 175.00 | +3.00 |
| Nov11/Jan12 | 178.00 | +2.00 |
| Feb/Apr12 | 180.00 | +2.00 |
BradburyWatch
18/04/11 -- Teased mercilessly last night by MrsN#3 after she told me to be sure not to miss CountryFile as I'd get to see Julia Bradbury's Tufty. I was not expecting a feature on the UK red squirrel population, 75% of which live in Scotland apparently. They probably feel at home with their ginger brethren up there. The rest of us have to put up with their large, aggressive Septic cousin, the grey.
Be Careful What You Wish For
16/04/11 -- Whilst western European growers are watching the skies for rain, yet again they've got far too much of the wet stuff to crack on with spring plantings on the Canadian Prairies.
My man Brad in Saskatchewan, who was amongst the first to flag up large scale flooding in the province last year, has done it again sending me footage from the air via this little YouTube video here.
That was shot in the Estevan/Torquay area of SE Saskatchewan, just over the border from North Dakota.
"This past fall we froze up at full saturation point and we had a fairly high amount of snow. Flooding is now predicted to exceed 100 year high marks through vast areas. Our area received up to 6 inches more wet snow last night. A very large percentage of the grid road system throughout Western Canada has flooded sections and heavy truck travel has been virtually suspended. If we have a May/June similar to last year Western Canada will be essentially unseeded. And the upper Mid West States are faring little better. Smoke that!" says Brad.
I don't smoke, Brad, I'm a clean living boy who simply sups the odd pint now and again just to be sociable like. Now that we've cleared that one up the next question to which we need to know the answer to is this: Is it true that bears really do conduct their dirty business in the woods over there? Have the council provided them with no toilet facilities whatsoever? Or do they have them, but they simply chose not to use them the dirty buggers? A bit like gypsies, but without the bling. Or a caravan, obviously. Come to think of it you never see a bear in a caravan do you, why is that I wonder? They're probably too busy writing letters of complaint to the council I reckon.
