Chicago Close
26/04/11 -- Soybeans: May 11 soybeans closed at USD13.82 3/4, down 6 3/4 cents; Nov 11 soybeans closed at USD13.74 3/4, down 7 3/4 cents; May 11 soybean meal closed at USD359.80, down USD1.30; May 11 soybean oil closed at 58.05, down 16 points. The market is looking at the weather and thinking that with corn plantings at only 9% done, surely that is going to mean more soybean acres in 2011 for the US. Meanwhile the possibility of further Chinese fiscal tightening as early as next weekend could be on the cards, and soybean demand from that quarter does finally appear to be slowing.
Corn: May 11 corn closed at USD7.66 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents; Dec 11 corn closed at USD6.75 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents. US plantings remain well behind normal pace at just 9% done, compared with 23% on the five year average and 46% a year ago. The trade remains concerned over wet and cold weather in the corn belt delaying plantings, but ultimately may have to ask itself is this a better scenario than last season's dryness? Rain does indeed make grain after all. Some, but certainly not all, forecasters are calling for a drier weather pattern to emerge over the next fortnight, which may help planting progress.
Wheat: May 11 CBOT wheat closed at USD8.11 1/4, down 14 3/4 cents; May 11 KCBT wheat closed at USD9.50 1/4, down 10 1/2 cents; May 11 MGEX wheat closed at USD9.73 1/2, down 7 1/4 cents. Stats Canada are forecasting sharply higher spring wheat plantings there at 24.724 million acres. "Kansas wheat areas are finally getting rain late in April with scattered rainfall in the state today and isolated thunderstorms tonight. There is also a possibility of showers in Western Kansas each day Friday-Sunday," say Martell Crop Projections.
EU Grains Close
26/04/11 -- May London wheat closed GBP2.00/tonne higher at GBP212.00/tonne with new crop Nov up GBP2.60 to GBP180.00/tonne. May Paris wheat was up EUR1.25/tonne at EUR253.50/tonne whilst Nov was EUR4.25/tonne higher to EUR229.00/tonne.
There were 62,900 MT of original first day wheat tenders against the May contract in London today, with 43,100 MT of re-tendered wheat, my chums at EuropeanGrain.com tell me.
Weekend rains in Europe, such as they were, proved to be fairly scattered across parts of northern France, Germany and Poland leaving crops there already potentially facing yield losses despite the fact that April isn't even out yet.
Potentially of more concern is the 14-day forecast for continued dryness. Some crops here in the UK too could also start to suffer possible significant damage by then too.
Meanwhile the late arrival of spring for Russian growers means that spring plantings there are well behind schedule, and farmers here you will recall are looking to increase their 2011 sowings to make up for a pretty disastrous autumn campaign.
Fast forward across the pond and we find US spring wheat plantings at only 6% complete against 25% normally and 40% of the winter wheat crop rated poor/very poor.
On a more optimistic note Canadian farmers are hoping to plant 17% more wheat for the 2011 harvest, according to Stats Canada today. Conditions will have to warm up and dry up considerably, and fairly rapidly too, for that to happen.
Just Call Me Statto
26/04/11 -- Sitting at my computer idly wondering how things have changed dramatically in the past six weeks, just after the market collapsed in the aftershock reverberating around following the Japanese earthquake/tsunami (mixed in with a touch of Gaddafi jitters too).
So I thought I'd do the research and impart the info. Here goes, since March 15th we've seen the following market moves based on today's latest prices (basis front month):
Paris wheat up EUR54.00/tonne (+25.6%)
London wheat up GBP42.65/tonne (+25.5%)
Paris malting barley up EUR48.50/tonne (+24.0%)
CBOT wheat up 151 3/4c (+22.7%)
Paris corn up EUR41.50/tonne (+20.9%)
CBOT corn up 122c (+19.2%)
Paris rapeseed up EUR57.75/tonne (+14.0%)
CBOT soybeans up 109 1/2c (+8.6%)
Interesting to see Chicago corn closer to the bottom of the list than the top, and also of note is little old London wheat fighting above it's weight again.
Early Call On Chicago
26/04/11 -- The overnight grains closed lower with beans down around 8-10c, wheat off a similar amount and corn down 4-6c.
Crude oil is flat and so too is the dollar.
Saudi Arabia bought 275,000 MT of US/Australian wheat and Iraq 300,000 MT split between the same two origins over the long weekend. Japan is looking for 342,518 MT of wheat this week of which 164,000 MT is US origin.
The USDA last night reported corn plantings at only 9% complete, up just two points in a week, and well below the 23% five year average.
Spring wheat plantings also lag at 6% against 25% normally and 39% last year. Winter wheat ratings good/excellent fell from 36% to 35% and poor/very poor increased from 38% to 40%. In Oklahoma only 5% of the crop is rated in the top two categories.
"Wheat producers in North Dakota are looking to begin fieldwork, not seeding, by May 6. It would be the latest date for ground preparation in the decade," say Martell Crop Projections.
"Kansas wheat areas are finally getting rain late in April. Showers have produced some useful rain in the past few days, but less than 20% of wheat has benefited from widely scattered showers," they add.
European winter wheat conditions also remain a concern, as too must the slug-like pace of Russian spring plantings, where little more than a million hectares have so far been seeded against a government target of 30 million.
Stats Canada say that Canadian farmers will plant 24.724 million acres of wheat this year, 17.4% up on 2010. Rapeseed plantings are also seen sharply higher - up 14.3%.
Celeres say that the Brazilian soybean harvest is 91% complete and in Argentina the Ministry there say it's 52% done.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn 4-6c lower, wheat down 6-8c, beans down 8-10c.
EU Rapemeal Prices
26/04/11 -- Here's the latest guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day:
| Apr11 | 191.00 | unch |
| May11 | 193.00 | +1.00 |
| May/FH Jul11 | 194.00 | +2.00 |
| Aug/Oct11 | 187.00 | +3.00 |
| Nov11/Jan12 | 191.00 | +2.00 |
| Feb/Apr12 | 193.00 | +3.00 |
This Is England, Isn't It?
26/04/11 -- It was an unusually lovely Easter weekend, with Wisley in Surrey hitting a balmy 27.8C, according to the BBC last night. Combined with a dry March and April crops are withering in the ground. At least that's the way the market seems to see it.
At the end of the day this is England isn't it, and not North Africa. This picture of a field of rapeseed (click to enlarge) here in North Yorkshire taken over the weekend hardly shows a stunted and sparse crop wilting on it's knees.
A walk with Nogger's dog this morning (unfortunately sans camera) took me into a field of nearby wheat. This particular walk I only do occasionally on what is far from being prime northern arable land, and the crop also looked surprisingly strong an vigorous.
There seems to be a general consensus that another fortnight of no, or only trace amounts of rain really will see some damage done, especially on lighter land and amongst 2nd and later drilled wheat. Unfortunately that is exactly what is in the forecast.
It's a pity that they can't bring Wimbledon fortnight forward to the beginning of May, that would sort the job out.
New crop Nov London wheat is almost GBP3.00/tonne higher this morning, with Paris wheat around EUR4.00/tonne higher. Partly playing catch-up with Chicago from Friday and Monday night, where the May contract gained 41c, and partly reflecting another dry weekend here.
Chicago Close - Easter Monday
25/04/11 -- Soybeans: May 11 soybeans closed at USD13.89 1/2, up 9 cents; Nov 11 soybeans were unchanged at USD13.82 1/2; May 11 soybean meal closed at USD361.10, up USD2.30; May 11 soybean oil closed at 58.21, down 6 points. Beans gained from spillover support from corn and wheat. The slow pace of spring corn and wheat plantings in the US could be bearish for soybeans as it may mean that more later planted bean acres get sown. Even so, sharply higher grains dragged beans also higher by the session close.
Corn: May 11 corn closed at USD7.62 1/2, up 25 1/4 cents; Dec 11 corn closed at USD6.81 1/2, up 16 cents. "Temperatures in the North Central United States fell 6-10 F below normal last week. This was a setback for spring planting of corn and wheat. Field temperatures in northern Iowa are near 40 F compared to the 50 F threshold for corn germination," said Martell Crop Projections. After the close the USDA confirmed that only 9% of the crop was in the ground, only up 2 points in a week, and compared with 46% a year ago and 23% on average.
Wheat: May 11 CBOT wheat closed at USD8.26, up 26 1/2 cents; May 11 KCBT wheat closed at USD9.60 3/4, up 28 1/4 cents; May 11 MGEX wheat closed at USD9.80 3/4, up 29 1/4 cents. Nothing much has changed over the weekend, the spring wheat crop is well behind at just 6% planted as opposed to 39% a year ago and 25% on average. Good to excellent conditions of winter wheat fell a point from last week to 35%. "Scattered frost developed both Saturday and Sunday mornings in Kansas, Nebraska and Colorado. Wheat just beginning to head out was not damaged," say Martell Crop Projections.
