Chicago Grains Rally To End Week, But Still End Lower Vs Last Friday
16/09/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher on talk of a rain delayed US harvest. "Weather forecasts are wet weather to predominate over the US Midwest next few weeks, which threatens to delay the harvest, at a time when the new crop will soon be needed to meet heavy export demand," said Agrimoney. Central and Northern Brazil remains dry delaying the start of planting for their 2017 crop. " The USDA is forecasting a near 2% expansion in acreage with a yield the 3rd highest in 15 years. A 5 year average yield would cut Brazil’s production 3 MMT and an unchanged acreage would cut an addition 1 MMT from production. It would fall on the US to make up the difference," said FCStone. Fund buying in beans was estimated at 8-10,000 lots today. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.66, up 15 1/2 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.71 1/4, up 15 1/2 cents; Oct 16 Soybean Meal settled at $313.70, up $5.10; Oct 16 Soybean Oil settled at 31.98, down 6 points. For the week Nov 16 beans were still down 14 1/4 cents.
Corn: The market closed around 7 cents higher on wet weather worries. Prices were still lower for the week overall though. "As well as delaying the harvest, the rain is raising the risk of disease in the crop," noted Agrimoney. "Diplodia is a common topic with anecdotal reports coming from the early harvest running 10 to 30% damage," said FCStone. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated the recently finished Argentine 2015/16 corn crop at 28 MMT, up 1.7 MMT on last year on a planted area of 3.6 million ha. They say that planting for the 2016/17 crop is now underway in some areas and expect plantings to rise to 4.5 million ha due to recent government changes to export taxes. Brazilian analyst Safras estimate the 2016/17 Brazil corn crop at 92.3 MMT vs 70.75 MMT for 2015/16 on a significant jump in planted acres due to much higher domestic prices and a return to more normal crop rotational methods. FranceAgriMer reported that French corn crop conditions declined again this week, but this time by only the one point in the good to very good category to 54%. Harvesting of that crop has yet to begin. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.37, up 7 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.47 1/4, up 7 cents. For the week Dec 16 corn was still down 4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed higher. Egypt tendered for wheat but nobody offered due to the zero tolerance stance on ergot. There's talk that despite expecting their second largest crop ever, Australia's wheat harvest (normally Oct/Dec) could see quality damage due to the developing La Nina. "The premium of futures in hard winter wheat to those in lower-protein soft wheat hit a fresh five-month top, as US official forecast an "unusually high" spread thanks to quality setbacks in the world harvest," noted Agrimoney. "The quality of wheat in 2016-17 is likely to be much lower than the average of recent years, and last year as well," the USDA said in a report. Strategie Grains yesterday estimated the proportion of EU wheat destined only for the feed bin to rise from 29% to 41% this year. There's some talk also that the quality of this year's apparently bumper Russian wheat crop is not as good as in normal years. Russia has currently harvested 71.2 MMT of wheat off 87.8% of the planned area, along with 18.2 MMT of barley (92.3% harvested). Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.03 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.17 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $4.92 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents.
EU Grains Mostly Higher, Weak Sterling Supports London Wheat
16/09/16 -- EU grains closed mostly a little higher on the day, but mixed for the week.
At the close Nov 16 London wheat was up GBP0.85/tonne at GBP123.60/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was EUR0.25/tonne higher to EUR159.00/tonne, Nov 16 Paris corn was up EUR0.50/tonne at EUR160.50/tonne, Nov 16 Paris rapeseed was EUR0.75/tonne higher at EUR372.50/tonne.
For the week London wheat was GBP2.25/tonne firmer, Paris wheat rose EUR0.75/tonne, corn was EUR0.25/tonne easier and rapeseed slid EUR5.75/tonne.
A significantly weaker pound helped London wheat's cause this week, with sterling closing at 1.30 versus the US dollar and below 1.17 against the euro.
Egypt tendered for wheat for Oct 15-25 shipment, but no offers were received due to the new zero tolerance rules on ergot.
FranceAgriMer reported that French corn crop conditions declined again this week, but this time by only the one point in the good to very good category to 54%. Harvesting of that crop has yet to begin.
Russia said that their 2016 grain harvest is 81.8% done at 104.2 MMT. That includes 71.2 MMT of wheat off 87.8% of the planned area, along with 18.2 MMT of barley (92.3% harvested). New crop corn is 13.2% harvested producing more than 2 MMT so far.
Russian plantings (mostly winter wheat) for the 2017 harvest are already past halfway at 52% done on 9.0 million ha (8.1 million a year ago).
Ukraine said that it's winter grains (again mostly wheat) are 12% planted on 855k ha. Harvesting in Ukraine is 71% done at 40 MMT. Corn is 7% harvested at 1.26 MMT.
The Ukraine Ag Ministry said that grain exports so far this season have reached 8.5 MMT, including 5.1 MMT of wheat and 2.8 MMT of barley.
Kazakhstan's 2016 harvest is 63.9% done at 14.6 MMT, with an expected final production level of 22 MMT.
Back home, the HGCA said that "the reopening of the (Ensus) bioethanol plant is a step in the right direction in terms of boosting domestic wheat usage this season."
"Regional prices are influenced by regional supply and demand, effecting their relationship to UK futures. Currently ex-farm feed wheat in the North East are only at a narrow discount to UK futures," they noted.
Chicago Grains Closing Comments - Thursday
15/09/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher. Weekly export sales of 1,018,600 MT for 2016/17 were mostly for China (641,700 MT). Trade estimates had been for sales of 900,000 MT to 1.2 MMT. Exports of 999,800 MT were again mainly to China (715,600 MT). In addition we had sales of 110,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2016/17 marketing year announced under the daily reporting system. Meal export sales were 133,900 MT, in line with trade ideas of 80,000 MT to 180,000 MT. The NOPA August crush was well below trade expectations at 131.8 million bushel versus trade estimates of 136.2 million. The trade is conscious that the market often puts in a seasonal low around now (late September/very early October). Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.50 1/2, up 7 3/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.55 3/4, up 7 3/4 cents; Oct 16 Soybean Meal settled at $308.60, up $1.50; Oct 16 Soybean Oil settled at 32.04, up 42 points.
Corn: Corn closed lower. Weekly export sales of 703,500 MT for 2016/17 were nothing to write home about. Trade ideas were for sales of 800 TMT to 1.1 MMT so these were a little disappointing. Exports of 1,128,500 MT were also reported. "Traders now expecting a slow grind lower to retest previous lows and stimulate more demand," said FCStone. The recent front month closing low was 3.01 1/2. Harvest pressure looms. The Rosario Grain Exchange estimate Argentine new crop corn plantings at 5.7 million ha, up "only" 18% on last year (many others are in the 20-25% or more region due to a return to more normal crop rotation following the government's switch to zero export duties on corn). Strategie Grains cut their view on this year's EU corn crop by 1.3 MMT to 59.3 MMT. Good ethanol profitability is supporting end user bids. Production was back up above 1 million barrels/day yesterday. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.30, down 1 3/4 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.40 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents.
Wheat: Wheat closed lower. Weekly export sales of 402,200 MT for delivery in marketing year 2016/17 were down 39 percent from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. In addition, there were net sales reductions of 7,000 MT reported for the Philippines for 2017/18. That said, exports of 708,500 MT were up 12 percent from the previous week and 13 percent from the prior 4-week average. US wheat could really do with a pick up in export demand. What might help is Strategie Grains estimating that only 59% of this year's crop makes milling standard as opposed to an estimated 66% a month ago and 71% last year. They cut their EU-28 soft wheat production forecast to 136.5 MMT and estimated exports at only 23.7 MMT. FranceAgriMer said that the average specific weight of this year's French wheat crop is only 73 kg/hl. Below the standard required by millers, exporters and futures stores. Russia's export duty on wheat is reset to zero as from today. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $3.99 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.16, down 2 1/4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $4.91 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents.
French Wheat Below Milling And Export Standard
The day ended with Nov 16 London up GBP0.50/tonne at GBP122.75/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was down EUR0.50/tonne at EUR158.75/tonne, Nov 16 corn was down EUR0.25/tonne at EUR160.00/tonne and Nov 16 rapeseed rose EUR3.25/tonne to EUR371.75/tonne.
FranceAgriMer said that the average specific weight on this year's French wheat crop was 73 kg/hl, below the minimum requirement for flour making and well below export standard.
This suggests that "French millers will be looking for wheat outside of domestic supplies," said the HGCA.
They also point out that "France usually accounts for around 25% of total EU wheat production and is the main EU exporter, accounting for nearly a third of the EU’s wheat exports," placing the 2016/17 marketing campaign in a new light entirely.
Strategie Grains cast a further shadow over the entire EU crop, saying that 41% of this year's wheat is only of feed standard, up 7 points from last month's estimate and versus 29% a year ago.
They also cut their forecast for the EU-28 soft wheat crop by 1.4 MMT from a month ago to 136.5 MMT, a 10% reduction on last year. Exports in 2016/17 are seen at 23.7 MMT, down 8 MMT% (-25%) from last season.
They estimated this year's EU-28 corn crop at 59.3 MMT, down 1.3 MMT on previously.
Russia officially reduced the export duty on wheat to zero today. Their harvest currently stands at 103.2 MMT off 81.4% of the planned area. Wheat accounts for 70.8 MMT of that total off 86.9% of plan.
Brussels confirmed 371 TMT worth of EU soft wheat export licences had been issued this past week, with France picking up over 105 TMT worth. The season to date total is now 5.4 MMT.
APK Inform estimated Ukraine's 2016 corn crop at 26.23 MMT versus 23.6 MMT a year ago. They see 2016/17 exports at 17.5 MMT.
Chicago Grains Mixed, Trade War With China Looming?
14/09/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed mostly a touch lower on impeding harvest pressure and ideas that big crops get bigger. That spate of daily announcements of export sales to China seems to have dried up a little too. NOPA's monthly crush estimates for August are released tomorrow. Bloomberg have that at 138.2 million bu. Also out tomorrow are the regular weekly export sales numbers, with beans expected to come in around 900,000 MT to 1.2 MMT and meal ideas of 80,000 MT to 180,000 MT. A Reuters survey of traders pegged Brazil's 2016/17 soybean crop at 103.1 MMT, an 8% increase on this year despite talk of a switch in plantings to corn. Exports for 2016/17 were pegged at 57.0-59.7 MMT versus 56.6 MMT a year previously. Sep 16 Soybeans settled at $9.72, up 3 3/4 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.44, down 2 cents; Sep 16 Soybean Meal settled at $315.70, up $5.30; Sep 16 Soybean Oil settled at 31.50, down 5 points.
Corn: The corn market closed with small gains. Supportive news was that of weekly ethanol production being back up over 1 million barrels/day (1.004), versus 998,000 bpd for the previous week. There's talk of a trade war developing with China. "The Obama Administration has launched a new trade enforcement action against the People's Republic of China at the World Trade Organization (WTO) concerning excessive government support provided for Chinese production of rice, wheat, and corn. United States Trade Representative Michael Froman and United States Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack were joined by bipartisan members of Congress in announcing the complaint which challenges China's use of "market price support" for three key crops (rice, wheat, and corn) in excess of China's commitments under WTO rules," the USDA said in an announcement on their website. Forecasts for tomorrow's weekly export sales are 800 TMT to 1.1 MMT. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.31 3/4, up 1 3/4 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.42 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed with small gains. FranceAgriMer cut their forecast for the French soft wheat crop to 28.47 MMT, down more than 30% on a year ago. The average spec falls well short of that required for export as far as bushel weights are concerned. Exports in 2016/17 will drop 43.4% to 11.90 MT, estimate FranceAgriMer. Others aren't struggling so badly though. Australia’s crop was pegged at 28.1 million tonnes, their second largest crop on record (24.2 MMT a year ago). Russia's wheat harvest has now reached 70.5 MMT off 86.3% of the planned area. India is said to be buying wheat off Ukraine. Egypt look set to be buying wheat off nobody due to it's new zero tolerance to ergot. Morocco is said to be seeking 300,000 MT each of EU and US wheat. Japan is in the market for it's regular 149,231 MT combo of US, Canadian and Australian wheat. Export sales tomorrow are called in the region of 350-550 TMT. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $3.76 3/4, up 2 cents; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $3.94 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $4.93, up 1 1/4 cents.
EU Grains Mixed Again, Fresh News Lacking
14/09/16 -- EU grains closed mixed on another day lacking in fresh stimulative news.
The day ended with Nov 16 London wheat down GBP0.15/tonne at GBP122.25/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was up EUR0.50/tonne at EUR159.25/tonne, Nov 16 corn rose EUR0.25/tonne to EUR160.25/tonne and Nov 16 Paris rapeseed was down EUR3.00/tonne to EUR368.50/tonne.
FranceAgriMer released their latest figures on production, exports and stocks, pegging the 2016 French wheat crop at a 33-year low of 28.47 MMT, down 30.3% on last year. They see exports falling 43.4% in the 2016/17 season to 11.90 MMT (intra-EU 6.59 MMT, -15.6%; outside-EU 4.70 MMT, -61.8%) and ending stocks declining 26.3% to 2.23 MMT.
Barley production is seen down 20% at 10.1 MMT, with exports falling 36.4% to 4.89 MMT and ending stocks rising 22.7% to 1.46 MMT.
Corn production is forecast at 12.2 MMT, exports at 5.29 MMT and ending stocks at 2.04 MMT.
In other news, the Russian harvest is now said to have reached 102.8 MMT off 80.9% of the planned area. Wheat accounts for 70.5 MMT of that (86.3% harvested), barley 18.1 MMT (91.7%) and corn 1.6 MMT (10.1%).
Russian plantings for the 2017 harvest are approaching halfway done (47.7% complete) on 8.3 million ha (7.4 million this time a year ago).
Rapeseed is doing it's best to resist the downwards pull of Chicago soybeans, but struggling.
"Helping rapeseed prices resist the magnitude of the downward pull is the news that Malaysian palm oil stocks have sunk to their lowest level in six years as output struggles to recover from the recent El Nino and exports soar," said the HGCA.
Production in Europe this year is only now forecast at 20 MMT (USDA Monday), the lowest since 2008/09 and versus 22.2 MMT a year ago and projected consumption of 23.9 MMT.
Chicago Grains End Lower
13/09/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed sharply lower under pressure from yesterday's record bin-busting 50.6 bu/acre yield forecast from the USDA. A strong dollar didn't help today either. Tomorrow is last trading day for September futures, so some technicality could be in evidence. Old crop remains tight, but new crop is almost upon us. Those growers that don't need to sell for cash or space purposes at harvest time could be reluctant below $10, and even more so if we fall below $9/bu. There are plenty of question marks over the South American growing season ahead, as well as farmers' planting intentions with regards to beans on a falling market. Sep 16 Soybeans settled at $9.68 1/4, down 16 1/4 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.44, down 20 1/4 cents; Sep 16 Soybean Meal settled at $310.40, down $7.90; Sep 16 Soybean Oil settled at 31.55, down 76 points.
Corn: The market closed around 10 cents lower. Follow through pressure from a bearish WASDE report was a negative factor, as well as the strong dollar. Corn production in Brazil for 2017 was raised 2.5 MMT to 82.5 MMT in yesterday's report, a sharp 23% increase on this year's drought-reduced crop. Meanwhile, the USDA’s 2.384 billion bushel US carryover estimate, if realized, would be the largest carry-over since 1987/88, noted Benson Quinn. The US harvest is now underway, providing a bit more additional pressure to the market. The corn harvest is also moving along in the FSU, with Russia 6.4% complete at 938.5 TMT and Ukraine 3% done at 478 TMT. Warm and dry conditions in the latter may be stalling winter wheat planting but they will be beneficial for corn harvesting. Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.19 1/4, down 10 cents; Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.30, down 9 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower, in common with corn and beans. As the US spring wheat harvest nears an early completion, winter planting is underway. The French harvest continues to shrink, with the Ag Min there cutting their forecast from 29.1 MMT to 28.2 MMT, down from almost 41 MMT a year ago. Russia though appears to have more than enough wheat this year, with their harvest now standing at 69.8 MMT off 85% of the planned area. Planting for 2017 is also well advanced at 43% done. There's talk of Russia introducing a ban on Egyptian citrus imports, which could spark a trade war engulfing the purchase of Russian wheat - already in the doldrums over the new ergot zero tolerance rules. There's continued talk of dryness issues in Ukraine possibly having an adverse affect on winter wheat plantings there. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $3.74 3/4, down 8 1/2 cents; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $3.92 1/4, down 7 1/2 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $4.91 3/4, down 8 cents.
