Chicago Grains Rally Following USDA Numbers
30/09/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed higher in two-sided trade. The USDA pegged Sept 1 stocks at 197 million bushels, fractionally lower than the average trade guess but marginally higher than the 195 million estimated previously. Last year's soybean production was lowered to 2.82 million bushels on a downward revision in harvested acres. Now that this is out of the way the trade will be looking forward to the USDA crop production report on Oct 12. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment found only 3 soybean bulls, 9 bears and 7 neutrals. The USDA reported the sale of 118,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China and 198,000 MT for delivery to unknown destinations, both for delivery during the 2016/17 marketing year, under the daily reporting system. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.54, up 3 3/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.59 1/4, up 3 cents; Oct 16 Soybean Meal settled at $297.90, unchanged; Oct 16 Soybean Oil settled at 33.24, up 15 points. For the week front month beans were a cent lower, meal fell $5.30 and oil was down 7 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 7 cents higher on the day and fractionally better for the week. The USDA estimated Sep 1 stocks at 1.737 versus an average trade guess of 1.754 billion. Some in the the trade had been prepared for an even larger number, so this was viewed as mildly friendly. China are reported to have authorised 2 MMT of corn exports in the coming year. the first exports of any volume in a decade as they increase their efforts to reduce their huge stockpiles. Another government auction of 2.4 MMT today met with virtually zero response. South Korea are reported to have been busy buying corn the past few days with KFA booking 120 TMT of optional origin for Jan/Feb shipment, MFG buying 69 TMT of optional origin for Jan shipment and NOFI taking 134 TMT of optional origin. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange report Argentine corn at 21.5% planted, up from 15.2% a week ago. Dryness there remains an issue. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment found only 4 corn bulls, 7 bears and 8 neutrals. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.36 3/4, up 7 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.46 1/2, up 7 1/2 cents. For the week Dec 16 corn was up 1/4 of a cent.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed on the day and for the week. The USDA put Sep 1 all wheat stocks at 2.527 billion bushels, larger than the average trade guess of 2.438 billion. These are the highest Sep 1 US wheat stocks levels since 1988. Total wheat production was 2.309 billion bushels. Bearish numbers, yet still the market managed a rally, helped by rising corn and beans. The USDA's FAS in Turkey cut the wheat crop there to 17.25 MMT (19.50 MMT a year ago) due to drought. Imports in 2016/17 were estimated up 25% at 5.0 MMT. Russia will likely be the main beneficiary of that. SovEcon estimated Russia's 2016/17 grain exports at a record 40 MMT, with wheat hitting an also all-time high 31 MMT. Russia said that they'd harvested 75 MMT of wheat so far off 96.6% of plan. Ukraine said that they'd exported 6.47 MMT of wheat so far this season. Morocco tendered for 130,000 MT of soft wheat. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment found 5 wheat bulls, only 3 bears and 11 neutrals. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.02, up 3 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.15 1/2, down 1 3/4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.14 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents. For the week Chicago wheat was down 2 3/4 cents, Kansas was 6 cents lower and Minneapolis rose 10 3/4 cents.
EU Grains Little Changed - Sideways Pattern Continues
30/09/16 -- EU grains closed mostly lower on the day and mixed for the week. Trade largely continues to be confined to a sideways pattern.
The day ended with Nov 16 London wheat up GBP0.05/tonne at GBP127.05/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was down EUR1.25/tonne at EUR160.50/tonne, Nov 16 corn was also EUR0.25/tonne lower at EUR160.25/tonne and Nov 16 Paris rapeseed was down EUR1.00/tonne to EUR375.75/tonne.
For the week London wheat was GBP0.35/tonne higher, Paris wheat was down EUR0.75/tonne, corn was EUR2.50/tonne lower and rapeseed was unchanged.
London wheat is up GBP4.10/tonne for the month on a front month basis and Paris wheat is up EUR5.50/tonne. Corn is up EUR0.50/tonne and rapeseed is up EUR3.00/tonne.
Not a lot has changed this week. Talk of possible quality issues to Canadian wheat caused by rain, and Australian wheat caused by frost/rain, continue to circulate.
Russia's harvest is nailed on the be record this year, although there are whispers over wheat quality there too.
As far as the harvest goes, that currently stands at 111.1 MMT off 90.3% of the planned area, according to the Ag Ministry. That includes 75.0 MMT of wheat (96.6% harvested), 18.7 MMT of barley (95.5%) and 3.3 MMT of corn (22%). All those weights are before cleaning and screening.
The head of the Ag Ministry said that this year's harvest was "outstanding" and predicted a final clean weight total of 113-116 MMT "maybe more". Plantings for next season are 65.4% complete on 11.3 million ha.
SovEcon forecast Russia's 2016/17 grain exports as high as 40 MMT, including 31 MMT of wheat. Both figures would set new records.
Ukraine are also chipping away at the old block, bringing in a grain harvest of 43.6 MMT so far (76% complete, including 4.8 MMT of corn off 22% of the planned area.
Autumn dryness though means that total winter grain plantings have only been completed on 3.14 million ha, some 334k ha less than this time last year which was also a year badly affected by drought. Wheat is 47% sown on 2.93 million ha and barley 11% done on 110k ha. Winter rapeseed has been sown on 712k ha, or 98% of the planned area. Emergence is said to be a problem.
Ukraine's grain exports so far this season stand at 10.22 MMT, of which 6.47 MMT is wheat, 3.11 MMT barley and 602 TMT corn.
Drought has cut this year;s Turkish wheat crop to 17.25 MMT (from 19.5 MMT a year ago), said the USDA's FAS. Barley production is down 36% to 4.75 MMT from 7.4 MMT. Turkey is a big importer of Russian grain.
Algeria is another country where drought has cut production this year. The 2016 wheat crop is seen at 2.0 MMT, down 26% from 2.7 MMT in 2015, and barley production has fallen 23% to 1.0 MMT. Imports are estimated steady at 8.0 MMT of wheat and 0.9 MMT of barley, say the FAS.
FranceAgriMer left the proportion of the French corn crop rated good to very good unchanged at 54% (56% a year ago which was also a poor year). The harvest is 4% complete (7% a year ago).
Chicago Grains Mixed Ahead Of USDA Stocks Numbers
29/09/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher helped by strong weekly export sales of 1,692,800 MT for 2016/17 being reported for China (833,600 MT) and unknown destinations (528,800 MT) among others. Trade estimates were for sales of 1.0 and 1.4 MMT. In addition, there were also sales of 120,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2016/17 marketing year announced under the daily reporting system. The IGC raised their forecast for the global soybean crop by 4 MMT to 329 MMT, essentially due to increased production in America (now seen at 113 MMT). World ending stocks were however lowered 2 MMT to 29 MMT. Abiove estimated Brazil's crop at 101.3 MMT, with exports at 57 MMT. The USDA are 100 MMT and 58.4 MMT respectively. The USDA's quarterly stocks report tomorrow could provide further direction in this market which is trying to balance strong demand against record US production. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.50 1/4, up 4 3/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.56 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents; Oct 16 Soybean Meal settled at $297.90, down $1.80; Oct 16 Soybean Oil settled at 33.09, up 45 points.
Corn: The market closed around unchanged levels. Weekly export inspections of 575,000 MT were reported for 2016/17. That was at the low end of expectations of 0.5 to 1.0 MMT. Exports of 1,261,500 MT were reasonably robust however. The IGC cut the world corn crop by 3 MMT to 1027 MMT where "overly dry weather has affected crop prospects in the EU and China". They cut the EU to 59.5 MMT from 61.6 MMT previously, but still up from 58.2 MMT a year ago. China was lowered 2 MMT to 217 MMT. World ending stocks were down 2 MMT to 216 MMT. China offered another 4.7 MMT of reserve corn but found hardly any interest. Russia said that it's 2016 corn harvest was 21.2% complete at 3.2 MMT in bunker weight. Ukragroconsult lowered their forecast for Romanian corn production by 850 TMT to 8.1 MMT due to long-term drought. The size of the already large spec fund short in corn is a downside limiter for now, Tomorrow's stocks report isn't thought likely to be a "game changer" for corn, but you just never know with the USDA. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.29 1/4, unchanged; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.39, also unchanged.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed. Weekly export sales of 570,800 MT for delivery in marketing year 2016/17 were up 2 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average. That was in line with trade estimates of 400,000 MT and 650,000 MT. Exports of 843,400 MT were a marketing-year high, up 53 percent from the previous week and 36 percent from the prior 4-week average. Japan also bought 125,800 MT of US/Canadian wheat in their regular weekly tender. There's some talk that wheat stocks could be lower than many in the trade anticipate in tomorrow's report due to increased wheat feeding as the wheat/corn price differential is relatively narrow. The average trade guess for stocks tomorrow is 2.438 billion bushels. There's increased talk of crop losses/quality damage to Australian wheat due to frost in the west and excessive wetness in the east. The IGC raised their forecast for the 2016/17 global wheat crop by 4 MMT to 747 MMT. Carryover stocks were increased 2 MMT to 231 MMT. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $3.99, down 4 1/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.17 1/4, down 4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.09 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents.
London Wheat Hits One-Month Highs On Sterling Weakness
29/09/16 -- EU grains closed mostly higher, but still largely trapped in a sideways move. Nov 16 London wheat staged it's best close in more than a month helped by sterling weakness.
At the close Nov 16 London wheat was up GBP0.80/tonne at GBP127.00/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was EUR0.75/tonne higher to EUR161.75/tonne, Nov 16 Paris corn was EUR0.50/tonne firmer at EUR160.50/tonne, Nov 16 Paris rapeseed was EUR3.00/tonne better at EUR376.75/tonne.
Brussels approved 468 TMT worth of soft wheat export licences this past week, taking the season so far total to 6.35 MMT, a 23% increase on this time last year (although note that the rate of increase was 25% just last week).
Barley exports at 8 TMT were less impressive. The season to date total for those is only 1.19 MMT, some 65% less than this time last year.
The growing theme for the global wheat market is one of rising production (although not here in Europe), but not necessarily for quality milling wheat which many think could be in a shortage situation this year.
Underlying this theme, the IGC today raised their forecast for the 2016/17 global wheat crop by 4 MMT to 747 MMT. "The outlook for wheat is again cut for the EU, but this is outweighed by increases for Australia, Canada, China and Kazakhstan," they said. Carryover stocks were increased 2 MMT to 231 MMT.
The EU-28 soft wheat crop was placed at 143.6 MMT, down from 145.2 MMT previously and down 10% versus 159.8 MMT a year ago. EU-28 ending stocks were cut from 13.2 MMT to 11.6 MMT (15.5 MMT a year ago).
The head of the Russian Grain Union estimated grain production in bunker weight there this year at 124 MMT (or 115 MMT in clean weight). The clean weight total will include 72,5 MMT of wheat, he said. Grain export potential in 2016/17 was pegged at 30 MMT. Whether they achieve this potential is another matter however. Cumulative exports so far are 7% below year ago levels.
The Russian harvest officially stands at 100.4 MMT (89.4% done) in bunker weight, including 74.6 MMT of wheat (95.7% harvested), 18.7 MMT of barley (95.4%) and 3.2 MMT of corn (21.2%). Plantings for the 2017 harvest are said to be 64% complete on 11.1 million ha.
Ukragroconsult said that the pace of Ukraine autumn/winter planting is behind both last year and the 5-year average due to dryness in parts of the country. According to the government growers there will plant 7.37 million ha of winter grains (mostly wheat) and 724k ha of winter OSR.
They also peg Romania's corn crop at 8.1 MMT, down 850 TMT on their previous estimate due to long-term drought.
Chicago Grains End Lower Despite Strong Soybean/Corn Export Sales
28/09/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower. The move came despite the USDA reporting sales of 133,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China and 211,171 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown, both for 2016/17, under the daily reporting system. So, demand is good at these near 5-month lows. The trade is looking for this to be backed up by weekly export sales of 1.0 and 1.4 MMT for beans tomorrow. Then all eyes will be on Friday's quarterly stocks report, with old crop Sep 1 bean inventories expected to come in around the 200 million bushel mark. Palm oil futures in Malaysia were lower overnight. Northern areas of Brazil remain very dry. Things are better in the south. Argentina is cold and dry. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.45 1/2, down 7 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.52, down 6 3/4 cents; Oct 16 Soybean Meal settled at $299.70, up $0.40; Oct 16 Soybean Oil settled at 32.64, down 48 points.
Corn: Corn closed lower despite the USDA announcing a monster sale of 1,577,340 MT of US corn for delivery to Mexico under the daily reporting system. Of the total 1,036,320 MT is for delivery during the 2016/17 marketing year and 541,020 MT is for delivery during the 2017/18 marketing year. The US Energy Dept reported ethanol production up 8,000 barrels per day to 989,000 bpd last week. The average trade guess for Friday's USDA Sep 1 corn stocks figure is 1.754 billion bushels. Weekly export sales are forecast around 0.5 to 1.0 MMT. Safras reported Brazilian full season corn planting at 16% complete versus 21% typically at this time. Argentina have taken up the export baton from Brazil and shipped out a record 4 MMT of corn in August (versus only 1.54 MMT a year previously). South Korea's Kocopia were reported to have purchased 55,000 MT of US corn for Jan shipment in a tender. China are reported to have added a 10.7% anti-subsidy tariff to US DDGs imports. That's on top of the recently introduced 33.8% import duty. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.29 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.39, down 2 3/4 cents.
Wheat: Wheat closed mixed. The average trade guess for Friday's Sep 1 stocks report is a large 2.438 billion bushels. The market is hoping that the US can pick up some export interest by playing the quality card that seems to be lacking from the hands of other global exporting nations this year. Trade forecasts for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 400,000 MT and 650,000 MT for wheat. Trade gossip suggests that a problem might be looming for Australian wheat just prior to harvesting, where it's forecast to see temperatures dip below freezing in the most productive west of the country, whilst the east picks up heavy rain. The quality of the Canadian crop is also rumoured to be subpar, leading to an export demand shifting stateside, said FCStone. There's talk too that Russia's crop might be setting production records this year, but that the quality of that too is lower than normal. Argentina reported that it had exported 7.35 MMT of wheat Jan/Aug, double the volume shipped out in the same period in 2015. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.03 1/4, down 3/4 cent; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.21 1/4, up 2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.08 1/2, up 5 3/4 cents.
EU Wheat Moving Sideways
The day ended with Nov 16 London up GBP0.45/tonne at GBP126.20/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was down EUR0.50/tonne at EUR161.00/tonne, Nov 16 corn was also down EUR0.50/tonne at EUR160.00/tonne and Nov 16 rapeseed fell EUR1.50/tonne to EUR373.75/tonne.
The Russian harvest is now reported to be 88.7% complete at 109.8 MMT. Wheat accounts for 74.2 MMT of that and barley a further 18.6 MMT (both 95% harvested). Corn harvesting is 20.7% complete at 3.1 MMT. Planting for the 2017 harvest is now 63% complete.
Winter plantings in Ukraine are slower at around a third done, with some concerns remaining over dryness. "This is behind the pace seen last autumn when below normal rainfall also hampered planting, and ultimately reduced the area of winter crops, including wheat and rapeseed," noted the HGCA.
There's talk of heavy rains in the east, and possible frost damage in the west, causing late problems for Australian crops just prior to harvesting. Temperatures in the west are forecast down to -4C, and parts of the eastern wheat belt could pick up rains of up to 100mm in the next few days, according to media reports.
Even if the rain doesn't damage yields then it could certainly lower wheat quality specifications in a year when this seems to be a common theme around the globe.
Russia's exports seem to be picking up now that the export duty on wheat has been abolished, with private firm Rusagrotrans forecasting these at 3.7-3.8 MMT in October (of which 3.0-3.1 MMT will be wheat) compared to exports of 3.5 MMT a year previously (of which 2.4 MMT was wheat).
Tunisia tendered for 67,000 MT of soft wheat, 42,000 MT of durum and 25,000 MT of feed barley.
Argentina is said to have exported 7.35 MMT of wheat in the first eight months of 2016, double the volume shipped out in the same period in 2015. Better production and the removal of export quotas/taxes will have helped. Brazil has been the top buyer.
Chicago Grains Stage "Turnaround Tuesday"
27/09/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed higher, recovering from the 5-month lows hit earlier in the session which triggered bargain-hunting. The USDA announced another 120 TMT of US soybeans sold to China for the 2016/17 marketing year under the daily reporting system. Still, the possibility of further yield increases from the USDA in future WASDE reports remains an upside limiter. There may have been some short covering at the lows today ahead of Friday's stocks report from the USDA and the possibility of a surprise. Old crop ending stocks are guessed at around 200 million bushels, but there's a near 100 million difference between the highest and lowest guess. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.52 1/2, up 7 1/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.58 3/4, up 7 1/4 cents; Oct 16 Soybean Meal settled at $299.30, up $1.70; Oct 16 Soybean Oil settled at 33.12, unchanged.
Corn: The corn market closed around 2-3 cents higher, correcting some of yesterday's losses in "Turnaround Tuesday" style. Spillover support came from rallying beans and wheat. Good demand also supports - US corn export inspections have been above 1 MMT for 17 weeks in a row now following yesterday's numbers. US harvest pace is running behind average but there's time to catch up. US growers are capable of harvesting 25% of the crop in a week if the weather plays ball. The EU Commission's MARS lowered their forecast for EU corn yields this year from 7.23 MT/ha a month ago to 6.84 MT/ha, although that's still more than 6.31 MT/ha a year ago. France was cut to 7.65 MT.ha versus 8.36 MT/ha a year ago and 9.11 MT/ha for the 5-year average. Ukraine's 2016 corn harvest is 15% done at 3.17 MMT. Russia's is 20% complete at 3 MMT. China offered 1.2 MMT of corn at auction today but picked up no interest. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.31 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.41 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed with decent gains. Short covering was noted. There's some talk of quality perhaps becoming an issue for Canadian and Australian wheat, but there's little hard evidence of this yet. Trade gossip suggests a shortage is quality wheat is looming this year. Some say that growers with quality wheat are hanging onto it. Others say they simply haven't got it. Japan are in for 125,800 MT of US/Canadian wheat in their regular Tuesday tender. Morocco tendered for more US SRW. Ukraine winter wheat is said to be 33% planted. Russia is about 62% done. MARS lowered EU-28 soft wheat yields to 5.63 MT/ha from 5.86 MT/ha a month ago. French yields were cut to 5.62 MT/ha versus 7.92 MT/ha in 2015 and 7.34 MT/ha for the recent average. Argentina has turned cold and dry. "Temperatures in Argentina are quite cold with widespread freezing temperatures this week that could impact some of the developing wheat crop," said Dr Cordonnier. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.04, up 8 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.19 1/4, up 5 1/4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.02 3/4, up 8 1/4 cents.
