EU Grains End Mostly Lower, Even Weak Pound Can't Save London Wheat Today
The day ended with Nov 16 London down GBP0.65/tonne at GBP128.05/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was down EUR2.25tonne at EUR158.25/tonne, Nov 16 corn was down EUR1.50/tonne at EUR159.50/tonne and Nov 16 rapeseed was up EUR0.25/tonne to EUR377.25/tonne.
Defra released their first UK crop estimates of the year, pegging the UK 2016 wheat harvest at 14.5 MMT, and barley output at 6.7 MMT. That puts wheat production down 12% on last year and below the previous five year average of 14.7 MMT. Barley production will decline 10% year-on-year, but slightly above the 5-year average of 6.5 MMT.
"The gap between UK average ex-farm feed wheat over feed barley has grown to over GBP16/tonne, larger than we saw throughout most of last season. The premium may suggest that feed wheat could be pricing itself out of the feed market, emphasising the good quality wheat crop we have seen this harvest," said the HGCA.
They put final 2016 UK wheat yields at 7.9-8.1 MT/ha, about average for recent years, with specific weights running at 77.2 kg/hl. Winter barley yields have come in at 5.9-6.1 MT/ha, and those for spring barley at 5.6-5.8 MT/ha. Winter OSR yields have only averaged 3.0-3.2 MTha, an 11-17% decrease on the five year average o 3.6 MT/ha. Another nail in the coffin of OSR?
That's not the case in Ukraine apparently, where winter OSR sowings are up 27% to 734.4k ha, according to Ukragrocunsult. You have to bear in mind though that sowings were dramatically reduced due to adverse weather conditions last autumn, so this is more of a return to "normal" plantings. Ukraine's 2016 rapeseed crop was slashed 31% to only 1.1 MMT this year. Rain is in the forecast for the next few days which should advance winter wheat sowings.
The Russian Ag Ministry increased their forecast for this year's Russian wheat crop from 71 MMT to 72 MMT (in clean weight). That's a new post-Soviet era record.
Kazakhstan said that their 2016 harvest had now reached 22.6 MMT off 97.7% of the planned area. That's almost 5 MMT more than at the same date a year ago. Agritel estimate final wheat production to be up 1 MMT at almost 15 MMT this year.
Brussels confirmed the release of 423 TMT worth of EU soft wheat export licences this past week. That brings the season so far total to 6.8 MMT, 17% ahead of this time last year, although the rate of increase is falling almost weekly now.
The USDA currently forecast EU all wheat exports declining 25% in 2016/17.
Chicago Grains Close - Wednesday
05/10/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed lower with Informa joining FCStone in raising their 2016 US yield estimates. They went for 51.6 bu/acre versus a previous forecast of 49.5 bu/acre. Not as high as FCS's 52.5 bu/acre, but above the USDA's 50.6 bu/acre estimate. Informa estimate soybean production at 4.299 billion bushels, 100 million above the USDA. Dr Cordonnier said that Argentina's decision to postpone the reduction of the soybean export tax could mean 1-200,000 acres lower plantings than originally intended this year. Brazilian soya is said to be 5% planted vs 3% a year ago and 4% on average at this time. Brazil's ANEC forecast soybean exports at 52 MMT this year, down from a previous estimate of 57 MMT. They see those climbing only modestly next year to 53 MMT. Winter rapeseed planting in Ukraine is said to be 100% complete at 722k ha. Other than that fresh news was lacking with China on holiday. Weekly exports sales tomorrow are estimated to be in the region of 1.2-1.5 MMT. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.56 3/4, down 6 3/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.63 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents; Oct 16 Soybean Meal settled at $303.80, down $0.70; Oct 16 Soybean Oil settled at 32.66, down 23 points.
Corn: The corn market closed with small losses. Weekly US ethanol production was reported down 9,000 barrels per day by the US Energy Dept. Informa estimated 2016 US corn yields down from 175.2 bu/acre last month to 174.5 bu/acre. FCStone were 175.2 bu/acre yesterday and the USDA were at 174.4 bu/acre last month. Informa have production at 15.215 billion bu versus 15.093 billion from the USDA. Crude oil is again approaching the $50/barrel level which should be supportive for corn. Ukraine said that their corn harvest is 25% done at 6.26 MMT. Dr Cordonnier said that Argentine growers might plant 100-200,000 acres more corn than he originally estimated due to the government's change of stance on the soybean export tax. He already sees plantings up 25% this year. Brazilian full season corn is said to be 40% planted versus 33% last year and 26% on average at this time. "US weekly corn (export) sales are estimated from 1,800 to 2,500 MT vs 575 MT last week. 1 MMT will come from the massive sale to Mexico that was announced last week," said Benson Quinn. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.47 3/4, down 1/2 cent; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.57 1/2, down 3/4 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market closed with solid gains in Chicago and Kansas. For once Minneapolis was the laggard, managing only modest advances. Today's rally may have prompted some short-covering. Morocco were reported to have bought 260,000 MT of US hard wheat, which was supportive even if that was only due to the preferential terms extended their way. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales are around 400-700,000 MT. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange pegged Argentine wheat production at 12.5 MMT. Russia's PM estimated their grain crop at 115 MMT (a 25-year high), of which 112 MMT is said to already be harvested. Russia's exports have been lagging last year's pace a little, but may now start to pick up now that they have abolished the export duty on wheat - even though latterly this has been at fairly minimal levels. They won a clean sweep in yesterday's Egyptian tender. Winter grain sowings in Ukraine are complete on 3.95 million ha, some 360k ha less than at this time a year ago. Wheat plantings are 59% complete at 3.65 million ha. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.05, up 9 1/2 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.15, up 12 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.22 1/4, up 2 1/4 cents.
EU Grains Mostly Higher, Although London Wheat Falters
05/10/16 -- EU grains closed mostly a little higher on the day. London wheat was mostly lower despite continued sterling weakness.
The day ended with Nov 16 London wheat unchanged at GBP127.60/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was up EUR0.25/tonne at EUR160.50/tonne, Nov 16 corn was up EUR0.50/tonne lower at EUR161.00/tonne and Nov 16 Paris rapeseed was EUR1.25/tonne firmer to EUR377.00/tonne.
Paris grains remain rangebound, with wheat and corn both stuck around the EUR160/tonne level and rapeseed firmly entrenched in the EUR370-380/tonne region.
London wheat claws it's way higher due to currency, with the pound reaching a new 31-year low against the US dollar today. It also set 5-year euro lows as well, despite manufacturing and construction data expanding at the fastest pace in years.
The US corn and soybean harvests looked nailed on the be record large this year, but demand is also high and supplies out of South America are questionable. The global rapeseed S&D situation is also tighter again this year, with that market now greatly influenced by fluctuations on soybean and palm oil prices.
Russia's PM forecast a final clean weight grain crop of 115 MMT, with 112 MMT of that already harvested, a 25-year high.
Ukraine said that they'd currently harvested 45.08 MMT of grains off 78% of the planned area. Corn production currently stands at 6.26 MMT off 25% of plan.
Winter grain sowings in Ukraine are complete on 3.95 million ha, some 360k ha less than at this time a year ago. Wheat plantings are 59% complete at 3.65 million ha. Winter OSR sowings are now said to be 100% done at 722k ha. Dry weather means that emergence is a problem.
The European Commission has proposed that the EU could import more cereals from Ukraine under zero tariff agreements.
Jordan cancelled their tender to import 100 TMT of hard wheat.
Morocco bought 260 TMT of US hard wheat under a preferential agreement.
Chicago Grains Mostly Lower In "Turnaround Tuesday" Trade
04/10/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower in "Turnaround Tuesday" trade. Northern Brazil reportedly got some favorable rains overnight allowing planting there to begin. FCStone forecast US soybean yields at a record 52.5 bu/acre, shattering the previous all-time high by 4.5 bu/acre. The USDA were at 50.6 bu/acre last month. "Incorporating the FCS number into the USDA’s table the carryout grows to 525 mln bushels or something that would historically be associated with $8.25 futures," said FCStone. They have recently forecast prices falling to $9/bu. Argentina's President Macri announced that the previously promised 5% reduction in soybean export taxes would a) be postponed until 2018 and b) only then be phased in at the rate of 0.5% per month. Weather watchers will be keeping an eye on the tracking forecasts for Hurricane Matthew to see just how close to the US mainland it might come. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.63 1/2, down 9 1/2 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.69 1/4, down 8 3/4 cents; Oct 16 Soybean Meal settled at $304.50, down $1.40; Oct 16 Soybean Oil settled at 32.89, down 16 points.
Corn: The market closed around 2-3 cents lower, partially reversing some of yesterday's gains. Private exporters reported an export sale of 100,000 MT of US corn to unknown destinations under the daily reporting system. Ukraine said that their ongoing corn harvest is 25% complete with a crop of 26.0-26.5 MMT expected. Brazil customs data shows that they exported 2.91 MMT of corn in Spetmeber, a 16% reduction on the same period in 2016. Brazilian corn is massively over-priced in the market at the moment due to production shortages and aggressive early season sales by shippers. FCStone cut their forecast for US 2016 corn yields from 175.6 bu/acre to 175.2 bu/acre (USDA: 174.4 bu/acre). That puts production at 15.163 billion bushels, down from the September forecast of 15.195 billion bushels (USDA: 15.093 billion bushels). Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.48 1/4, up 2 1/4 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.58 1/4, up 2 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed across the three exchanges. Minneapolis wheat remains the strongest leg of the three. Smaller than expected HRS production figures published on Friday are the reason behind that move. Reduced quality aspirations in Canada, and possibly Australia too, are a contributing factor to strength on Minneapolis. The Grain Association of Western Australia lowered their forecast for wheat production in Western Australia state by 0.4 MMT to 10.5 MMT, although that's still up 13.6% on last year. Japan tendered for 153 TMT of US. Canadian, Australian wheat in their regular weekly foray into the market. Egypt's GASC were reported late to have bought 240,000 MT of Russian wheat for Nov 1-10 delivery in their latest tender, paying $177.77 to $178.95/tonne FOB. The cheapest Romanian wheat was offered at $180.99/tonne. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $3.95 1/2, unchanged; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.03, down 4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.22 1/4, up 6 cents.
London Wheat Rises On Sterling Weakness
04/10/16 -- EU grains closed mostly higher, but still largely trapped in a sideways move. Nov 16 London wheat staged it's best close since Aug 22 helped by sterling weakness.
At the close Nov 16 London wheat was up GBP0.95/tonne at GBP128.70/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was EUR0.25/tonne higher to EUR160.25/tonne, Nov 16 Paris corn was EUR0.50/tonne firmer at EUR160.50/tonne, Nov 16 Paris rapeseed was EUR1.25/tonne lower at EUR375.75/tonne.
The pound slumped to a 31-year low against the US dollar, and a 3-year low versus the single currency on continued worries over the implications of a "hard Brexit". That was despite the FTSE 100 soaring to near all-time highs and a string of economic data indicating that the fall-out from leaving Europe might not be anywhere near as bad as economists have been forecasting.
Still, the market is the market, and tonight one pound is worth little more than $1.27 or €1.14. The outlook for further, and possibly significant, sterling depreciation supports London wheat going forward regardless of what the rest of the grain market gets up to.
Egypt's GASC were back in the market again tendering for wheat, having relented on their zero tolerance to ergot stance. This time they picked up nine offers from seven different sellers. Russian wheat at $177.77/tonne FOB was reportedly the cheapest offer. Results of the tender are expected in the morning.
Ukraine said that their 2016 harvest was 77% done at 44.5 MMT. The ongoing corn harvest is 25% complete with a crop of 26.0-26.5 MMT expected.
The Ukraine Ag Ministry said that planting of winter OSR for the 2017 harvest has now reached 99% complete in 717.5k ha. They haven't yet reported on crop conditions/emergence which private reports suggest is an issue again this year due to drought.
French growers are also looking for rain as they begin planting winter wheat and barley, and to get newly sown winter OSR established. There's very little in the 10-day forecast.
The EU Commission estimated the 2016 EU-28 OSR crop at 19.9 MMT, down 8% on 21.6 MMT a year previously.
The Grain Association of Western Australia lowered their forecast for wheat production in Western Australia state by 0.4 MMT to 10.5 MMT, although that's still up 13.6% on last year.
Chicago Beans Jump Higher On Strong Exports
03/10/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans jumped higher following much better than expected weekly export inspections (over 1 MMT) that were up sharply on only 383,953 MT last week. "To date the loadings are running 0.9 MMT ahead of a year ago and well on their way to meet the 1.23 MMT y-o-y increase projected by the USDA," said FCStone. "This leads the trade to believe the USDA has underestimated export demand again," they added. After the close the USDA put harvest progress at 26% complete, up from 10% done a week ago and in line with the 5-year average at 27%. Good to excellent crop conditions improved one point to 74%. The proportion of the crop dropping leaves was 83%, 4 points ahead of average. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.73, up 19 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.78, up 18 3/4 cents; Oct 16 Soybean Meal settled at $305.90, up $8.00; Oct 16 Soybean Oil settled at 33.05, down 19 points.
Corn: Corn closed with decent gains helped by better than thought weekly export inspections (1.47 MMT). The USDA put the 2016 US corn harvest at 24% complete as of Sunday night. That's up from 15% a week ago, but not by as much as the trade was expecting. Trade ideas were for around 30% done vs 27% complete for the 5-year average. Crop conditions fell one point in the good to excellent category (73%). Maturity was placed at 86%, 7 points ahead of the recent norm. In Ukraine Agritel said that a 26.5 MMT corn harvest and 2016/17 exports of 17.2 MMT "look credible". The USDA currently estimates these at 26.0 MMT and 17.0 MMT respectively. Ukraine's corn exports will pick up 2-3 weeks from now, said Agritel. APK Inform said that Ukraine seaports had only exported 65.7 MMT of corn last week. Russia's corn harvest currently stands at 3.5 MMT off 23.2% of the planted area. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.46, up 9 1/4 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.55 3/4, up 9 1/4 cents.
Wheat: Wheat closed mostly lower. Weekly export inspections of 641,897 MT were smaller than last week, but larger than the same week a year ago. The USDA has planting of winter wheat for the 2017 harvest at 43% complete, up from 30% a week ago and in line with the 5-year average of 45% done. Emergence is placed at 20% versus 17% on average. The Canadian Wheat Board said that their exports are running 36% down on a year ago eight weeks into the 2016/17 marketing year at 1.85 MMT. The USDA is currently forecasting a yearly decline on only 3%. Does this mean that a lower quality Canadian wheat crop will put some unexpected business the way of the US this season? Today's US export inspections numbers mean that loadings to date are running 2.1 MMT ahead of a year ago. Egypt are back in the market tendering for wheat with a 0.05% ergot inclusion maximum. Russia won last week's business. They've reportedly brought in a bunker weight wheat crop of 75.2 MMT so far (97.1% harvested). Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $3.95 1/2, down 6 1/2 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.07, down 8 1/2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.16 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents.
EU Grains Close - Monday
The day ended with Nov 16 London up GBP0.70/tonne at GBP127.75/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was down EUR0.50/tonne at EUR160.00/tonne, Nov 16 corn was down EUR0.25/tonne at EUR160.00/tonne and Nov 16 rapeseed was up EUR1.25/tonne to EUR377.00/tonne.
Sterling fell on fears of a so-called "hard Brexit" even though economic data continues to point to a better than expected performance by the UK economy since the June vote.
The outlook for continued pound depreciation looks like supporting London wheat going forward.
In other news, the EU Commission cut their forecast for this year's EU corn crop to now only match last year's poor total of 59.7 MMT, down from 62.5 MMT in August. Soft wheat output was increased from 133.3 MMT last month to 134.2 MMT, but still well down on 151.6 MMT a year ago. The EU barley crop was placed at 59.6 MMT (59.0 MMT a month ago and 60.7 MMT in 2015).
Total potential grain exports in 2016/17 were forecast at 37.6 MMT (including 25.0 MMT of wheat, 8.0 MMT of barley and 3.0 MMT of corn).
Russia said that it's 2016 grain harvest was 90.9% complete at 111.7 MMT in bunker weight. That includes 75.2 MMT of wheat (97.1% harvested), 18.8 MMT of barley (98.1%) and 3.5 MMT of corn (23.2%).
Planting works for the 2017 harvest are said to have been carried out on 11.7 million ha (67.4% of plan).
Kazakhstan's harvest is said to be 97.3% complete at 22.5 MMT.
In Ukraine Agritel said that a 26.5 MMT corn harvest and 2016/17 exports of 17.2 MMT "look credible". The USDA currently estimates these at 26.0 MMT and 17.0 MMT respectively.
APK Inform said that Ukraine's seaports had exported an impressive 1.02 MMT of grains last week, up from 650 TMT the previous week. Last week's total included 804 TMT of wheat, 65.7 TMT of corn and 153.8 TMT of barley.
Top export home for Ukraine grain was Saudi Arabia taking 128.4 TMT followed by Egypt (66 TMT).
Jordan tendered for 100,000 MT of hard milling wheat of optional origin.
