EU Grains March Higher - London Wheat At New Highs
The day ended with Nov 16 London wheat up GBP1.15/tonne at GBP139.50/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was EUR0.75/tonne higher at EUR164.25/tonne, Nov 16 corn was up EUR2.25/tonne at EUR166.75/tonne and Nov 16 rapeseed ended EUR0.25/tonne firmer at EUR396.50/tonne.
The International Grains Council trimmed back their forecast for the size of this year's EU all wheat crop by 300,000 MT to 143.3 MMT (USDA 143.2 MMT). Usage was increased from 126.6 MMT to 128.3 MMT and ending stocks lowered from 11.6 MMT to 10.8 MMT.
On a global level though production was raised 1 MMT to 748 MMT (USDA 744.4 MMT), including a 1 MMT each hike for Russia and Kazakhstan. World ending stocks were increased 2 MMT to 233 MMT (USDA 248.4 MMT).
The EU-28 corn crop was forecast at 59.3 MMT, down 200,000 MT from a month ago (USDA 60.3 MMT).
CBH lowered their forecast for the Western Australia state grain harvest from 15-17 MMT to 13-14 MMT due to more extensive frost damage than previously expected.
FranceAgriMer said that only 20% of this year's French wheat harvest makes the grade of Premium (A1) or Superior (A2) wheat.
Brussels announced that they'd issued only 220 TMT worth of soft wheat export licences this past week. The season to date total of 7.74 MMT still beats year ago levels by nearly 12% but that percentage figure is falling by the week.
Cumulative EU-28 corn import licences stand at 2.51 MMT versus 2.89 MMT a year ago.
A report in Farmers Weekly suggested that 9% of UK rapeseed crops had failed due to drought, and a further 7% to flea beetle damage. Similar problems exist on the Continent.
Bulgaria said that they'd doubled their wheat exports to 1.73 MMT so far this season, with 74% of those going to fellow EU destinations.
Kazakhstan said that their grain harvest is just about over at 23.6 MMT, up 3.9 MMT on a year ago.
Russia placed their grain harvest at 94.7% complete at 119.3 MMT in bunker weight. Wheat makes up 75.8 MMT of that total (98.1% harvested).
Rusagrotrans cut their forecast for Russia's October grain exports from 3.7 MMT to 3.2 MMT (versus 3.5 MMT a year ago and 3.9 MMT in September). Adverse weather conditions, a shortage of high quality wheat and the firmer rouble were all cited as reasons behind the move.
Chicago Grains Jump - Led By Beans
26/10/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed higher helped by the strong demand story (even though there were no flash sales announced by the USDA today). Malaysian palm oil prices firmed to the near two-and-a-half year highs seen at the start of the week, which helped. Nov 16 beans ultimately crashed through resistance at $10/bushel and kept going to close at $10.10/bushel. Market sources say that China sold 99,341 MT of government owned rapeseed oil at auction today - the entire volume offered. This adds to trade ideas that global vegoil supplies are tight. This year's EU rapeseed crop was down sharply, and next year's production already has a cloud cast over it due to poor emergence and high disease and pest issues in the UK, France and Germany. All of this increases world demand for soybeans, which is just as well given this year's record large US crop. The Brazilian real is pushing 16 month highs versus (an already strong itself) US dollar, which may have a negative impact on growers there bringing beans to market. Trade ideas for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for beans are a meaty 1.5 to 2.5 MMT. Nov 16 Soybeans closed at $10.10, up 19 1/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans closed at $10.21, up 18 3/4 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal closed at $319.10, up $10.90; Dec 16 Soybean Oil closed at 35.72, down 8 points.
Corn: The corn market closed with fair gains, helped by a weaker US dollar and spillover support from surging soybeans. The US Energy Dept put weekly US ethanol production at 991,000 barrels/day, down 7,000 barrels/day on last week. Taiwan were reported to have bought 65,000 MT of US/Brazilian corn. Given the current strength of the Brazilian real and high domestic prices there this will probably end up being US material. South Korea's NOFI are reported to be be in the market for 276,000 MT of optional origin corn for Feb/Mar shipment. South Africa say that they will plant 27% more corn this year for a total crop area of 2.46 million ha. The Russian corn harvest is reported at 8.9 MMT (55.1% complete). Under China’s new corn production policy (which includes fewer incentives for corn farming in many provinces), production is projected to drop by 4% to 216.2 MMT next year, say Water Street Solutions. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report on corn range from 850,000 MT to 1.2 MMT. Dec 16 Corn closed at $3.54, up 4 3/4 cents; Mar 17 Corn closed at $3.63 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed firmer, helped by rising corn and soybean futures. Short-covering was likely a feature again today. Pakistan estimated their wheat crop at 26 MMT versus 25.4 MMT a year ago. South Korea's NOFI are in the market for 69,000 MT of optional origin feed wheat for Feb shipment. The head of the Russian Grain Union said that this year's total clean weight grain harvest could be in excess of 116 MMT (versus 104.8 MMT last year), pegging export potential in 2016/17 at 38-40 MMT. Russian winter plantings for the 2017 harvest are said to be 95.6% complete on 16.6 million ha. The Ukraine state weather centre said that the arrival of colder than normal temperatures had slowed down, and even halted, the development of winter grains there. The last figures from the Ag Ministry showed winter wheat planting at 86% complete. Winter barley was only 59% sown as of Oct 25. The International Grains Council are due out tomorrow with their latest monthly look at global grains supply and demand. Trade ideas for tomorrow's weekly export sales report on wheat are a modest 350,000 to 550,000 MT. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.11 1/2, up 7 1/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.17, up 3 1/2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.25 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents.
London Wheat Sets More Than 2-Year High
At the finish Nov 16 London wheat was GBP2.00/tonne higher at GBP138.35/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was up EUR0.75/tonne at EUR163.50/tonne, Nov 16 Paris corn ended EUR2.75/tonne firmer at EUR164.50/tonne and Nov 16 Paris rapeseed was EUR5.00/tonne higher at EUR396.25/tonne.
Chicago grains were all sharply higher, which spilled over this side of the Atlantic. London wheat closed at the highest since the last day of June 2014. This surprising strength in futures may have caught a few shorts by surprise.
"Part of the support has come from wider European movements on the back of the ongoing stronger export demand. However, the movements in UK futures were larger....gains may be linked to the approaching end of the Nov-16 contract, for which yesterday marked the start of the tender period, the last trading day is 23 November," noted the HGCA.
Rapeseed futures were sharply higher as US soybean prices surged and held above key resistance at $10/bushel and Malaysian palm oil prices firmed to the near two-and-a-half year highs seen at the start of the week.
Concerns remain over the health of EU winter rapeseed plantings for the 2017 harvest, particularly in France, as highlighted by the EU Commission's MARS unit earlier in the week.
The head of the Russian Grain Union said that this year's total clean weight grain harvest could be in excess of 116 MMT (versus 104.8 MMT last year), pegging export potential in 2016/17 at 38-40 MMT.
The Russian Ag Ministry said that harvesting so far was 94.5% complete at 118.9 MMT in bunker weight. That includes 75.8 MMT of wheat (98.1% harvested) and 19.1 MMT of barley (97% harvested). Corn harvesting is ongoing at 8.9 MMT (55.1% complete).
Trade gossip continues to suggest that a higher proportion than usual of this year's Russian wheat crop is feed only grade. This might slow exports in the second half of the season if true. It would also increase carryover stocks at the end of the season.
Russian winter plantings for the 2017 harvest are said to be 95.6% complete on 16.6 million ha.
The Ukraine state weather centre said that the arrival of colder than normal temperatures had slowed down, and even halted, the development of winter grains there. The last figures from the Ag Ministry showed winter wheat planting at 86% complete. Winter barley was only 59% sown as of Oct 25.
Chicago Grains Post Little Change Tuesday
25/10/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed little changed. Support came from the USDA announcing private exporters reported export sales of 516,000 MT of US soybeans for delivery to China during the 2016/17 marketing year. Malaysian palm oil was lower though, adding a slightly negative vibe. Brazilian beans are said to be 28% planted versus 20% a year ago and 27% on average. Mato Grosso is well advanced at 42% done (20% a year ago), and so too is Parana state at more than 50% complete (35% a year ago). EU rapeseed futures were lower despite MARS confirming poor establishment of newly sown crops in the two largest producing nations - France and Germany. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.90 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.02 1/4, unchanged; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $308.20, up $0.90; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 35.80, down 19 points.
Corn: The market closed around a cent higher. Fresh news was limited. South Korea's MFG were reported to have purchased 60,000 MT of optional origin corn for Jan 2017 delivery. Chinese customs data shows that their DDGS imports in Spetember were down sharply (-70%) versus a year ago as the new anti-dumping tariffs kick-in. Anecdotal reports suggest that US farmer selling is light at these levels. "Producers continue to favour holding their corn and marketing their soybeans. Spot prices today indicate a producer will lose on every bushel he markets in corn whereas he will clear a profit on every bushel of soybeans," said FCStone. Ukraine's corn harvest is 54% done at 13.28 MMT. Russia's corn harvest is 52.6% complete at 8.5 MMT. The EU Commission's MARS unit lowered their forecast for EU-28 corn yields from 6.84 MT/ha to 6.82 MT/ha (and versus 6.93 MT/ha for the 5-year average). Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.49 1/4, up 1 cent; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.59, up 1 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market closed narrowly mixed. Egypt bought 420,000 MT of mixed Romanian/Russian wheat at around $193/tonne C&F. IKAR lowered their forecast for Russia's wheat exports in 2016/17 from 30 MMT to 29.5 MMT, although that's still a record. Russia's Ag Min said that this year's wheat harvest is 98% complete at 75.8 MMT in bunker weight. Russian winter grain (mostly wheat) plantings for the 2017 harvest are past 95% done. Chinese customs data shows that they have imported 2.86 MMT of wheat in the first nine months of 2016, a 27% increase on the same period in 2015. Australia was the largest supplier, accounting for 42% of that total. The EU Commission's MARS unit said that winter wheat plantings were seeing "overall fair progress, despite some hiccups." They trimmed their forecast for 2016 soft wheat yields from 5.63 MT/ha to 5.62 MT/ha, down from 5.83 MT/ha for the 5-year average. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.04 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.13 1/2, up 1 cent; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.24, down 3/4 cent.
EU Grains Mostly Higher, Winter Rapeseed Already In Trouble
25/10/16 -- EU grains closed mixed, but mostly higher. Nov 16 London wheat set a hew highest close for a front month since Dec 2014 helped by a slightly weaker sterling.
At the close Nov 16 London wheat was up GBP1.85/tonne at GBP136.35/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was EUR0.75/tonne firmer at EUR162.75/tonne, Nov 16 Paris corn was up EUR2.50/tonne at EUR161.75/tonne, Nov 16 Paris rapeseed was EUR2.25/tonne easier at EUR391.25/tonne.
The EU Commission's MARS unit lowered their forecast for EU-28 corn yields from 6.84 MT/ha to 6.82 MT/ha (and versus 6.93 MT/ha for the 5-year average).
"This analysis period was marked by contrasting weather conditions. Among the outstanding weather phenomena were the persistent dry conditions, which in France marked the end of a difficult season," they said.
Looking ahead. "these conditions also hampered the sowing of winter cereals in France, western Germany and the Benelux countries due to overly dry seedbeds, and negatively impacted emergence. By
contrast, heavy rains in the first half of October are responsible for a marked rain surplus in Poland and southeastern Europe," they added.
For winter rapeseed specifically they highlighted "mediocre sowing and emergence conditions in France and Germany."
"Precipitation was clearly below average from mid-August to mid-September in large parts of France and Germany, the two main EU-28 producers of rapeseed. As a consequence of the dry conditions, part of the rapeseed was not sown at all in France," they noted.
Conditions are more "adequate" in Poland, Europe's third largest producer, in the UK "conditions are rated as being average and rapeseed is quite well established, but there is currently high pest and disease pressure," they added.
Egypt's GASC bought 420,000 MT of wheat, their largest single purchase of the season so far, in their latest tender. They paid an average of $192.62/tonne C&F for 240,000 MT of Romanian wheat and $193.41/tonne for 180,000 MT of Russian wheat.
Despite that, rumblings remain that this year's Russian wheat quality isn't great, with IKAR today reducing their forecast for the nation's wheat exports in 2016/17 by 0.5 MMT to 29.5 MMT (still a record).
Their 2016 wheat harvest is said to be 98.1% complete at 75.8 MMT in bunker weight. Barley harvesting is 97% done at 19.0 MMT and the corn harvest is 52.6% complete at 8.5 MMT.
Russian winter plantings for the 2017 grain harvest are now more than 95% complete on 16.5 million ha.
The 2016 Ukraine grain harvest is said to be 86% complete at 52.27 MMT. That includes 13.28 MMT of corn (54% harvested).
Chicago Beans Test Resistance At $10/Bushel, Corn And Wheat Falter
24/10/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher, but off session highs. Very strong weekly export inspections - 2.739 MMT - were the 4th largest week ever and the largest for a single week since Nov 2014. Accumulative inspections are now 10.45 MMT versus 9.44 MMT for same period last year. Nov 16 beans hit $9.99 3/4 cents, but hit resistance at $10 and couldn't break through, falling back to close at $9.92. Dr Cordonnier said that Argentine growers may prefer to store and carry a proportion of their 2017 crop all the way into 2018 to take advantage of the new then relaxation of the export duty, which comes down at the rate of 0.5% per month starting Jan 2018. What's left of the Canadian canola harvest is stuck out in the fields under snow. Malaysian palm oil hit the highest since Mar 2014 on more production worries. China reported that they had imported 7.19 MMT of beans in September, which finishes off the Oct15/Sep16 marketing year at a record 83.22 MMT. Brazil's exports to China last month were down 25%, providing a window of opportunity for the US. After the close the USDA reported this year's US soybean harvest at 76% complete, up from 62% a week ago and exactly in line with the 5-year average. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.92, up 9 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.02 1/4, up 10 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $307.30, up $0.80; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 35.99, up 87 points.
Corn: Corn closed lower. Unlike beans corn didn't have support from bumper weekly export inspections. These came in at only 541,527 MT - down 38% from last week. This was possibly due to the strong demand for US soybean exports at the ports squeezing out corn. "Friday’s CFTC report showed the managed money crowd was stealthier in covering their large corn short than the trade had estimated (last week). With only a 50K net short the motivation to cover their position without a new bullish fundamental story evaporated and the sheer size of the current crop weighed on values," said FCStone. US weather forecasts predict rain for the corn belt Tues/Weds, followed by dryness and warmer than normal temperatures for most of the Midwest. The USDA pegged this year's US corn harvest at 61% complete versus 46% a week ago and 62% on average at this time. Black Sea corn exports are picking up as their harvest progresses. Ukraine's corn harvest is now past halfway done (51% complete). Their seaports exported 320 TMT of corn last week, according to APK Inform. Russia exported 183 TMT of corn last week, according to customs data. Russia's 2016/17 corn exports to date are 717 TMT. Chinese customs data shows that their corn imports in September were negligible. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.48 1/4, down 4 1/4 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.58, down 4 1/4 cents.
Wheat: Wheat closed lower. Weekly export inspections of just 244,331 MT set the tone, down more than 50% from last week. Inspections a year ago were 316 TMT. China imported 431 TMT of wheat last month versus 395 TMT a year ago. Australia was the largest supplier with 192 TMT. The USDA's FAS in Tokyo forecast Japan's wheat import needs at 5.8 MMT this season versus 5.7 MMT a year previously. Lanworth forecast a colder than normal US winter, with widespread cold 2-4F below normal across the Central US, However, above normal snowfall should mitigate any wheat losses due to winterkill, they said. The USDA said that US winter wheat planting for the 2017 harvest was 79% done versus 72% a week ago and 82% on average at this time. Emergence is 60% versus 47% a week ago and 58% for the 5-year average. In their first crop condition report of the season they placed 59% of the crop in good to excellent condition versus 47% a year ago. The Black Sea countries continue to export wheat at a brisk pace. Ukraine's seaports shipped out 544 TMT of wheat last week, and Russia's 441 TMT. Egypt's GASC announced a late tender for wheat for Dec 1-10 shipment. Russia and Romania have been the most successful bidders lately. Results are expected late tomorrow afternoon. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.02 1/2, down 12 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.12 1/2, down 9 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.24 3/4, down 4 1/4 cents.
EU Grains Mixed To Start The Week
The day ended with Nov 16 London wheat up GBP0.50/tonne at GBP134.50/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was EUR1.00/tonne lower at EUR162.00/tonne, Nov 16 corn was unchanged at EUR159.25/tonne and Nov 16 rapeseed finished down EUR0.50/tonne at EUR393.50/tonne.
Rapeseed got early support from Chicago soybeans setting their sights on a test of the $10/bushel mark - front month Nov 16 hit $9.99 3/4 cents before easing back into the close.
Fresh news was relatively thin on the ground to start the new week.
Black Sea exports continue at a pace, especially now that the corn harvest is gathering momentum.
APK Inform reported that Ukraine's seaports shipped out 544 TMT of wheat last week, along with 143 TMT of barley and 320 TMT of corn. Top home was Egypt (107 TMT) followed by Saudi Arabia and South Korea (63 TMT each).
Ukraine's 2016 harvest is reported to be 85% complete at 51.4 MMT. Corn harvesting has now reached past halfway (51% done), for a crop of 12.5 MMT so far. The Ag Ministry forecast final grain production at 63 MMT.
Russia's exports were only slightly less impressive at 441 TMT of wheat, 16 TMT of barley and 183 TMT of corn. Trade talk remains that despite bringing in a record wheat harvest this year, the quality of the crop isn't great, which may reflect in a tail-off in exports in the second half of the season. It would also be bearish for EU feed wheat exports.
Russia's exports to date are 11.8 MMT, down 4% on 12.3 MMT a year ago. That includes 9.68 MMT of wheat, 1.35 MMT of barley and 717 TMT of corn.
Egypt's GASC announced a late tender for wheat for Dec 1-10 shipment. Russia and Romania have been the most successful bidders lately. Results are expected late tomorrow afternoon.
Lanworth forecast a colder than normal US winter, with widespread cold 2-4F below normal across the Central US, However, above normal snowfall should mitigate any wheat losses due to winterkill, they said.
