EU Grains Drift Mostly Lower Amid Lack Of News
At the finish Nov 16 London wheat was GBP1.60/tonne lower at GBP137.40/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was down EUR0.50/tonne at EUR162.25/tonne, Nov 16 Paris corn ended EUR0.75/tonne lower at EUR164.00/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed was EUR0.50/tonne higher at EUR395.50/tonne.
Defra reported that UK wheat usage by the milling industry (incl starch and bioethanol production) Jul/Sep was 1.8 MMT, up 10% versus the same period in 2015.
This is the largest volume of wheat milled during the first quarter of the season on records going back to 1997, they said.
The strong pace can be primarily attributed to historically low specific weights of this year's crop, suggesting a lower flour extraction rate, and increased bioethanol demand following the re-opening of a major plant (Ensus) in July 2016, they added.
With UK exports, aided by the weak pound, also having got off to a great start in 2016/17 that all adds up to good news for UK wheat demand. Tempering that news is of course the knowledge that carryover stocks at the end of 2015/16 getting carried over into the current marketing year were unusually large.
Ukraine reported that they'd exported 2.6 MMT of wheat in September, an 8% drop versus 12 months previously. Still, total exports so far this season (Jul/Sep) are up 13% year-on-year at 6.18 MMT.
Russia reported their 2016 grain harvest to be 95.2% complete at 120.3 MMT in bunker weight. That includes 98.2% of their wheat for a gross volume of 75.8 MMT so far.
The Russian corn harvest has now reached 10.1 MMT off 62.1% of the planted area.
Russian winter plantings for 2017 have reached 98.2% done on 17.0 million ha.
The USDA's FAS forecast Canada's 2016/17 wheat exports to fall 5% to a four year low 21 MMT as rain, snow and frost take their toll on quality, and possibly the total volume available this year.
Chicago Grains Mostly Lower
02/11/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower on ideas that the USDA will raised its forecast for US 2016 production again in next week's WASDE report. FCStone set the tone yesterday by upping their forecast for 2016 yields from 52.5 bu/acre to 52.8 bu/acre, some 1.4 bu/acre above the USDA's October estimate. Talk that corn planting delays in Argentina caused by wet weather may lead to an enforced switch of acres back into beans was also a bit bearish. On the friendly side, Brazil's October soybean exports fell to 998,000 MT versus 1.44 MMT in September and much lower than 2.6 MMT in October 2015 as their supplies dry up. China bought 132,000 MT of US beans overnight, the USDA announced under the daily reporting system. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.76 3/4, down 7 1/2 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.86 1/2, down 6 3/4 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $306.70, down $2.80; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 34.98, up 13 points.
Corn: The market closed a couple of cents or so lower. Fresh news was hard to come by. Rains are delaying early corn planting in Argentina, which may lead to some of the expected 25-27% increase in area this year get switched back into beans, said Dr Cordonnier. Argentine growers are reluctant to plant corn in November as it leads to pollination in January, often the hottest and driest month of the year, he noted. Brazilian customs data shows that they only exported 1.1 MMT of corn in October (usually their busiest month of the year), down sharply from 2.91 MMT in September and well below the 5.55 MMT shipped out in October 2015. The US dollar was weaker ahead of the Nov 8th Presidential election. Russia said that their 21016 corn harvest was 60.8% complete at 9.8 MMT. The US Energy Dept reported ethanol production last week to 1.022 million barrels/day. FCStone estimated 2016 US corn yields at 175.3 bu/acre vs the USDA’s 173.4 bu/acre number from last month. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.46 1/4, down 2 3/4 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.55 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed, firmer in Chicago and Kansas but lower in Minneapolis. Talk of a better weather forecast for Canada had the latter market on the defensive. Japan are on the market for their regular weekly tender of 153,156 MT of US/Canadian and Australian wheat with the results expected Thursday. South Korea are tendering for 52,850 MT of US milling wheat for Mar/Apr shipment. Russia is still wrapping up the last remnants of it's 2016 harvest, now seen at 95.1% complete at 120 MMT in bunker weight. That includes a 75.8 MMT wheat harvest (98.2% complete) and one of 19.1 MMT for barley (97% complete). Russian winter planting works are now complete on 17.0 million ha, or 97.7% of the government target. This compares to only 15.8 million ha this time a year ago. The trade will soon start to focus on weather conditions and crop development in the Black Sea region ahead of winter dormancy. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.17 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.15 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.17 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents.
EU Grains See Little Change
02/11/16 -- EU grains closed mixed, with fresh news extremely thin on the ground.
At the close Nov 16 London wheat was up GBP0.10/tonne at GBP139.00/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was EUR0.25/tonne lower at EUR162.75/tonne, Nov 16 Paris corn fell EUR1.50/tonne to EUR164.75/tonne, Feb 17 Paris rapeseed was EUR2.00/tonne higher at EUR395.00/tonne.
Europe is expecting it's first cold snap of the winter, with "plummeting" temperatures in France set to halt vegetative crop development in it's tracks, according to Agritel.
As far as French corn goes "harvest works are still progressing with a confirmation of very disappointing yields," they say.
Russia is still wrapping up the last remnants of it's 2016 harvest, now seen at 95.1% complete at 120 MMT in bunker weight.
That includes a 75.8 MMT wheat harvest (98.2% complete) and one of 19.1 MMT for barley (97% complete). Corn harvesting is 60.8% done at 9.8 MMT.
Russian winter planting works are now complete on 17.0 million ha, or 97.7% of the government target. This compares to only 15.8 million ha this time a year ago.
Worries still remain over frost damage to wheat about to be harvested in Western Australia, and snow/heavy rain holding up the last 20% of the Canadian wheat harvest. At the very least this will likely cause some quality downgrades if not total crop losses.
The pound was firmer against the US dollar which was suffering a bout of pre-election nerves, but weaker versus the euro. The Bank of England are due to announce their latest decision on interest rates at midday tomorrow with few expecting any alteration.
Egypt's central bank is floating the country's pound as part of its drive to boost confidence in the economy, report the BBC. They are of course the world's largest wheat buyer. The move might pave the way for a bit more activity from GASC.
Chicago Soybean Crash Lower
01/11/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed sharply lower. South American weather is seen as beneficial for crop production for the next 2 weeks. Planting progress is slightly ahead of average in Brazil. Argentina is about normal. Ag Rural puts Brazil at 41% planted nationally versus only 31% a year ago and just ahead of the 5-year average of 40% complete. Dr Cordonnier says that Argentina is probably around 2-4% complete versus 5% on average at this time. The USDA put the September US crush at 138.25 million, in line with trade estimates. FCStone were reported to have increased their esimate on 2016 US soybean average yields from 52.5 bu/acre to a new record 52.8 bu/acre. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.84 1/4, down 18 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.93 1/4, down 18 1/2 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $309.50, down $6.60; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 34.85, down 32 points.
Corn: Corn closed lower despite the USDA announcing that private exporters had reported the sale of 212,344 MT of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2016/17 marketing year under the daily reporting system. New monthly production figures from the US Energy Dept show August ethanol production set all-time records at 1022 thousand barrels a day. Dr Cordonnier estimated that corn planting in Argentina is 36% complete versus 41% a year ago, slowed by cool and wet conditions. Ukraine reported their 2016 corn harvest to be 63% complete at 15.84 MMT. Russia said that their corn harvest was 60.2% done at 9.7 MMT. The EU Commission were unchanged on their estimate for EU-28 corn production this year at 59.7 MMT, up 1% on a year ago. Yesterday's data from the USDA shows that a quarter of this year's US corn crop remains in the field, about what the market was expecting and around normal for this time of year. Weather forecasts are generally viewed as favorable this week, with above average temps and drier conditions to move this harvest on towards completion. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.49, down 5 3/4 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.57 3/4, down 5 cents.
Wheat: Wheat closed lower on all three exchanges. The Russian wheat harvest is nearing completion at 98.1% done, for a crop of 75.8 MMT so far. They may have a shortage of the higher quality grades of wheat this year, but there will be plenty of mid to lower grade wheat looking for a home from this direction through 2016/17. China reportedly sold 473 TMT of the 2.84 MMT of wheat offered up by the government at auction today. Algeria are in the market for 50,000 MT of optional origin durum wheat. CBH lowered their estimate for the Western Australian wheat crop from 8.4 MMT to 7.8 MMT (and down sharply from the government's official figure of 10.5 MMT) due to frost damage being more widespread than earlier thought. Better prospects remain in the east of the country though. The EU Commission raised their estimates for this year's EU soft wheat and barley crops, pegging soft wheat up 400,000 MT from a month ago to 134.6 MMT, and increasing barley output by a similar amount to 60.0 MMT. In Kazakhstan final wheat production this year amounts to 17.8 MMT versus 14.6 MMT a year ago. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.14 1/4, down 2 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.13 3/4, down 1 cent; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.19 1/2, down 7 1/4 cents.
EU Grains Retreat From Highs
The day ended with Nov 16 London wheat down GBP1.10/tonne at GBP138.90/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was EUR02.75/tonne lower at EUR163.00/tonne, Feb 17 Paris rapeseed ended EUR5.75/tonne weaker at EUR393.00/tonne and Nov 17 Paris corn was down EUR0.75/tonne at EUR166.25/tonne.
The EU Commission raised their estimates for this year's EU soft wheat and barley crops, pegging soft wheat up 400,000 MT from a month ago to 134.6 MMT, and increasing barley output by a similar amount to 60.0 MMT. For soft wheat that represents a 16.7 MMT, or 11% , drop versus last year. For barley it's a more modest decline of 1.4 MMT, or 2.2%.
For EU corn production they were unchanged from a month ago at 59.7 MMT (versus 59.1 MMT in 2015). They forecast total 2016/17 grain exports at 36.6 MMT, including 25.0 MMT of soft wheat, 8.0 MMT of barley and 2.0 MMT of corn.
Worries remain about crop production in Canada and Australia. CBH lowered their estimate for the Western Australian wheat crop from 8.4 MMT to 7.8 MMT (and down sharply from the government's official figure of 10.5 MMT). Meanwhile around 20% of this year's spring wheat and canola crops in Saskatchewan are still out in the field unharvested.
There are no such problems in Russia where the harvest is now 95% done at 120 MMT in bunker weight. That includes 98.1% of this year's wheat crop (75.8 MMT) and 97% of this year's barley (19.1 MMT). The ongoing corn harvest is 60.2% complete at 9.7 MMT.
Winter plantings for next year are well advanced at 97.3% complete on 16.9 million ha. That's 1.1 million ha more than at this time last year.
Ukraine's harvest is also moving along nicely at 89% complete at 54.86 MMT. That includes 63% of this year's corn harvest for a crop of 15.84 MMT so far.
Winter wheat planting in Ukraine is said to be 91% complete on 5.66 million ha, with 75% of the winter barley crop now in the ground on 772k ha.
Kazakhstan said that their 2016 grain harvest was now officially over at 23.68 MMT in bunker weight. Wheat production this year amounts to 17.8 MMT (14.6 MMT a year ago) and barley output adds another 3.3 MMT (2.9 MMT in 2015).
Algeria are tendering fro 50,000 MT of optional origin hard wheat for Nov/Dec shipment. They frequently buy much more than they tender for.
Chicago Closing Report - Monday
31/10/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed with little change. Weekly export inspections of 2.867 MMT were impressive. Adding to the "strong demand" theme was the announcement of a sale of 246,000 MT of US beans to China under the daily reporting system. After the close the USDA reported this year's US soybean harvest at 87% complete, up 11 points on a week ago and 2 points ahead of the 5-year average. The US Census crush report comes out tomorrow. Trade ideas for that are around 138 million bushels. IMEA said that soybean planting in Brazil's Mato Grosso is 67% done, up an impressive 25 points in a week as growers go flat out to get the crop in. The downside of this is that harvesting will also likely be concentrated into a smaller window. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $10.02 1/4, up 1 cent; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.11 3/4, down 1/4 cent; Dec Soybean Meal settled at $316.10, down $1.40; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 35.17, down 24 points.
Corn: The corn market closed with minor losses. Weekly export inspections of 791,896 MT were up 45% from last week and up 63% versus the same week a year ago. Loadings to date are now 3.9 MMT ahead of a year ago. The USDA announced the sale of 100,973 MT of corn and 111,000 MT of grain sorghum for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2016/17 marketing year. After the close they placed the 2016 US corn harvest at 75% complete versus 61% a week ago and exactly in line with the 5-year average. Ukraine's corn exports are picking up, with the country's seaports shipping out 300,800 MT of corn last week. Russia's seaports exported 99,500 MT of corn last week. The Russian Ag Ministry said that their 2016 corn harvest was 59.9% complete at 9.7 MMT. Private Israeli buyers are shopping for 95,000 MT of optional origin corn. South American weather forecasts place ample rains in most of the corn growing areas over the next 10 days, said FCStone. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.54 3/4, down 1/4 cent; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.62 3/4, down 1/2 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market closed with fair gains, led by Chicago. Weekly export inspections of 325 TMT "were routine, but better than previous weeks," said Benson Quinn. Concerns over the last of the Canadian crop are supportive, with Saskatchewan's spring wheat harvest still only 81% complete. Dryness in US winter wheat areas keeps getting flagged up too. The USDA has that crop now at 86% planted versus 88% on average. Emergence is 70% versus 69% on average. Crop conditions good to excellent this week were down 1 point to 58%, but still a lot better than 49% a year ago. The Canadian Wheat Board said that the country's wheat exports so far this season are 23% down on a year ago at 3.2 MMT. Despite being 95% of the way towards a post Soviet era record grain harvest, Russia's exports so far this season are 6% lower than a year ago at 12.5 MMT. Russian analysts IKAR today lowered their forecast for Russia's full season grain exports by 600,000 MT to 39.4 MMT. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.16 1/4, up 7 3/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.14 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.26 3/4, up 2 1/4 cents.
London Wheat Hits New Highs
At the finish Nov 16 London wheat was GBP1.00/tonne higher at GBP140.00/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was up EUR1.25/tonne at EUR165.75/tonne, Nov 16 Paris corn ended unchanged at EUR167.00/tonne and new front month Feb 17 Paris rapeseed was EUR1.25/tonne lower at EUR398.75/tonne.
There wasn't a great deal of startling new news around to start the week, but London wheat managed to build on the recent momentum settling at GBP140/tonne - a level not seen since late Jun 2014, despite sterling being little changed. A firmer tone to Chicago wheat to start the week helped. Paris wheat went along for the ride.
The recent dry weather means that water levels on the Rhine and Danube are low, disrupting shipping activity in the area, and in some cases forcing smaller cargoes than intended to be moved, resulting in higher per tonne freight costs.
Areas not affected by this can therefore command a little bit of an extra premium.
The wheat and rapeseed markets remain worried about the state of play in Canada, where extremely wet and snowy conditions are holding up the last of the harvest, causing lodging. Saskatchewan state still has 20% of it's canola crop left in the field, along with 19% of it's spring wheat.
The Russian harvest plods on however at 95% complete at 119.8 MMT in bunker weight. Wheat is 98.1% harvested at 75.8 MMT. Despite this though exports remain a bit subdued. Total Russian grain exports (to Oct 26) are 6% down on a year ago at 12.5 MMT. That includes 10.15 MMT of wheat and 1.41 MMT of barley.
Russian customs data shows that the country's seaports only exported 354.7 TMT of grains last week, down from 556.5 TMT the previous week. That includes 249.4 TMT of wheat, 2.8 TMT of barley and 99.5 TMT of corn.
Russian analysts IKAR today lowered their forecast for Russia's full season grain exports by 600,000 MT to 39.4 MMT.
The Russian Ag Ministry estimates winter plantings for the 2017 harvest are 97.3% complete on 16.9 million ha (versus 15.7 million a year ago).
Ukraine's seaports exported 851.5 TMT of grains last week, down from an impressive 1 MMT the week before. That included 426 TMT of wheat, 124.7 TMT of barley and 300.8 TMT of corn.
Private Israeli buyers are in the market tendering for 95 TMT of corn, 45 TMT of feed wheat and 30 TMT of feed barley, all of optional origin.
