EU Grains Mixed, London Wheat Weakest Leg
10/11/16 -- EU grains closed mixed, with London wheat the weakest leg for a change as sterling found a sudden burst of strength.
At the close Nov 16 London wheat was down GBP0.40/tonne at GBP137.00/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was EUR0.75/tonne higher at EUR161.50/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn rose EUR0.50tonne to EUR162.25/tonne, Feb 17 Paris rapeseed was EUR3.00/tonne firmer at EUR393.00/tonne.
The market is now thinking that the pound's downside might have been overdone in the post-Brexit vote aftermath. Donald Trump's shock US election victory could now mean that the Bank of England will start raising UK interest rates sooner, and maybe higher, than previously anticipated if and when Trump puts some of his pre-election promises into action.
That could be bearish for London wheat, much of who's gains (from an early March low of under GBP100/tonne), have been directly attributed to sterling weakness rather than fundamental wheat market strength.
In other news, FranceAgriMer said that this year's French corn harvest could be the lowest since 1990. They lowered their production forecast to 11.805 MMT, down from 12.197 MMT previously and 9.6% down versus last year - and that was hardly a vintage crop either.
They said that the 2016 French corn harvest has now caught up pace with "normal" at 89% complete versus 79% a week ago and 90% this time last year.
French winter wheat planting has also advanced to 90% complete versus 78% a week ago and 93% a year ago. Winter barley is 97% sown (89% last week and 98% a year ago).
They increased the proportion of the French winter wheat crop rated good to very good by one percentage point to 95% (versus 97% a year ago). Winter barley good to very good was placed at 94% versus 97% a year ago.
The French analysts forecast the nation's soft wheat exports to fellow EU destinations at 6.3 MMT versus 6.42 MMT previously and 19% down on a year ago. Exports to non-EU homes were placed at 4.7 MMT, unchanged from last month but still 63% lower than in 2015/16.
Barley exports to EU homes were also downgraded to 2.85 MMT from 3.00 MMT previously and 3.03 MMT in 2015/16. Corn exports were also tweaked a little lower (5.14 MMT versus 5.16 MMT previously and 6.09 MMT last season).
Russia said that their 2016 net grain harvest had now reached 121.1 MMT off 95.5% of the planted area. That included 75.8 MMT of wheat (98.1% harvested), 19.1 MMT of barley (97%) and 10.9 MMT of corn (66.5%).
Winter plantings for 2017 are complete on 17.2 million ha (99% of the government target), up from only 15.8 million ha this time a year ago.
US Grains Tumble Following USDA Report
09/11/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed sharply lower. The USDA put 2016 national soybean yields at 52.5 bu/acre with production at 4.361 billion bushels (118.7 MMT). There were 51.4 bu/acre and 116.2 MMT last month. The trade was expectring yields to rise, but only to around 52.0 bu/acre. The larger than expected yield/production number spilled over into a bigger 2016/17 carryout than the markey had been anticipating. That was raised from 395 million bu last month to 480 million this time round (the average trade forecast was around 420 million bu). There were no changes to production in Brazil (102 MMT) or Argentina (57 MMT), nor China's import needs (86 MMT). Global ending stocks were raised from 77.4 MMT to 81.5 MMT. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.82, down 19 3/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.91, down 20 1/4 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $311.40, down $4.30; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 34.31, down 100 points.
Corn: Corn closed sharply lower after the USDA surprised the market by raising the average 2016 US corn yield by almost 2 bu/acre to 175.3 bu/acre. The market was expecting a tweak lower to around 173 bu/acre. The new yield figure took production up to a new record 15.226 billion bushels versus an average trade guess of 15.017 billion. US 2016/16 ending stocks were placed at 2.403 billion bu, around 100 million above trade expectations. "In the Black Sea region, Russia is harvesting a new record crop for the second consecutive year, while Ukraine is collecting a near-record crop," they noted. They increased their estimate for Russian production from 14.0 MMT To 14.5 MMT and upped Ukraine from 26 MMT to 27 MMT. Export potential out of both countries was also tweaked higher. World ending stocks came in at 218.2 MMT versus 216.8 MMT a month ago. Weekly US ethanol production data from the Energy Dept showed a 20,000 barrels/day fall from last week. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.40 3/4, down 13 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.49 3/4, down 13 cents.
Wheat: Wheat closed mostly lower, although Minneapolis did manage a small net gain. A bearish corn yield and production estimate from the USDA dragged wheat down, not that the numbers contained anything bullish for wheat either. Global production and ending stocks (including those in the US) were nudged higher. There were no changes to world exports in 2016/17 save for those from "others" with Russia, Ukraine, Australia, Canada and the EU all unaltered from a month ago. Egypt will remain the world's largest wheat buyer, with an import requirement of 11.8 MMT in 2016/17, they said. Russia said that they'd currently gathered a 2016 grain harvest of 120.8 MMT off 95.4% of the planned area. That includes 75.8 MMT if wheat off 98.1% of plan and 19.1 MMT of barley (off 97% of plan). Russian winter grains planting works are said to be complete on 17.2 million ha (98.9% of the government forecast) versus only 15.8 million ha this time a year ago. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.06 3/4, down 8 1/2 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.10 1/4, down 7 1/4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.14 1/2, up 1/2 cent.
EU Grains Fall Following Shock Trump Victory
The day ended with Nov 16 London wheat down GBP2.65/tonne at GBP137.40/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was EUR1.00/tonne lower at EUR160.75/tonne, Feb 17 Paris rapeseed ended EUR4.75/tonne weaker at EUR390.00/tonne and Jan 17 Paris corn was down EUR1.25/tonne at EUR161.75/tonne.
Commodity markets in general were lower following the news of the Trump victory, with only safe havens like gold posting gains. The US dollar and global equities opened sharply weaker too, although a sense of "normality" was restored before the close.
The other big news of the day was the USDA's November WASDE report where the biggest surprise was an upgrade for 2016 US corn yields (to 175.3 bu/acre), contrary to the downwards revision that the market was expecting (to 173.0 bu/acre).
That sent US corn prices tumbling, and wheat did't take a lot of persuasion to follow.
As far as the latter commodity goes, EU production this year was tweaked a bit higher, up from 143.2 MMT to 143.6 MMT, and EU 2016/17 exports were left unchanged at 25 MMT (down 28% on 34.78 MMT last season).
There were no changes made to the wheat balance sheets with regards to production or exports in Russia, Ukraine or Kazakhstan. EU-28 ending stocks were tweaked slightly lower from 10.53 MMT to 10.38 MMT. World ending stocks were raised from 248.4 MMT to 249.2 MMT, contrary to trade expectations of a small reduction.
Aside from the USDA numbers, fresh news was lacking.
The latest French customs data shows that it's not just wheat exports that are suffering this year (soft wheat foreign sales were down 43% year-on-year in September at 737 TMT). French barley exports fell 68% to 264 TMT in September, and corn exports were down 18% to 428 TMT.
Russia said that they'd harvested 120.8 MMT of their 2016 grain crop off 95.4% of the planted area. Corn harvesting is 65% done at 10.6 MMT.
Russian winter grains planting works are said to be complete on 17.2 million ha (98.9% of the government forecast) versus only 15.8 million ha this time a year ago.
Chicago Grains Rise Pre-USDA Report
08/11/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed with decent gains ahead of the results of the US presedential election and tomorrow's WASDE report from the USDA. The latter is expected to see the USDA increase their 2016 US yield forecast from last month's 51.4 bu/acre forecast to around 52.0 bu/acre. The trade has 2016/17 ending stocks up from 395 million bu a month ago to around 420 million this time round. Today the USDA reported export sales of 116,100 MT of soybean meal for delivery to the Dominican Republic during the 2016/17 marketing year. Chinese customs data showed that they only imported 5 MMT of soybeans in October, down 5.8% versus October 2015 and the smallest volume since February. There is a seasonal tendancy for October imports to be low. Strategie Grains forecast EU-28 OSR plantings for next year's harvest up slightly at 6.62 million ha. They said that production in 2016 was 20.12 MMT, down 8.7% year-on-year. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $10.01 3/4, up 12 1/2 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.11 1/4, up 12 3/4 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $315.70, up $3.80; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 35.31, up 52 points.
Corn: The corn market closed with decent pre-USDA report gains which may have been linked to book-squaring. The average trade guesses for tomorrow are for US production of around 15.017 billion bu and an average yield of 173 bu/acre. The USDA had production at 15.057 billion bu and yields at 173.4 bu/acre a month ago. 2016/17 ending stocks are placed at 2.30 billion bu. Customs data shows that US corn exports in September were 6.36 MMT, a whopping 89% increase year-on-year. The USDA has final full season exports up 17% at 56.52 MMT. The French Corn Producers Association estimated the size of this year's French corn crop at 12.6 MMT, slightly above the Ag Ministry's 12.5 MMT forecast, but still around 9% down on last year. The South African Grain Information Service say that the country's corn imports so far this season are up threefold at 1.38 MMT due to drought. Ukraine said that their 2016 corn harvest is 71% done at 18.19 MMT. In Russia the corn harvest has now reached 64.3% complete at 10.5 MMT. Trade talk suggests that rapid progress with Brazilian corn planting may lead to an earlier than normal start to this season's harvest. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.54 1/4, up 8 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.62 3/4, up 7 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed with good gains despite a lack of news. Short-covering ahead of tomorrow's USDA report may have been a feature. Egypt's GASC bought 180,000 MT of Russian wheat and 60,000 MT of Romanian origin material in their latest tender for Dec 10-20 shipment. The prices paid were around $187-190/tonne FOB for the Russian grain and $191/tonne for the Romanian product. The Russian grain harvest is said to be 95.3% complete at 120.7 MMT. That includes 75.8 MMT of wheat (98.1% harvested) and 19.1 MMT of barley (97% cut). The Russian Ag Ministry lowered their estimate for the country's 2016/17 grain exports to 35 MMT, of which 28 MMT will be wheat. Exports so far this season are lagging year ago levels despite the outlook for a bumper harvest. Russian plantings for the 2017 harvest are 98.8% over on 17.1 million ha. Customs data shows that French soft wheat exports in September were down 43% year-on-year at 737 TMT following the disaster that was this year's French wheat harvest (estimated down 31% by the French Ag Ministry yesterday). Poor quality is also a problem for exports this year. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.15 1/4, up 5 1/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.17 1/2, up 7 1/2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.14, up 7 1/2 cents.
EU Grains End Higher Across The Board
At the finish Nov 16 London wheat was GBP1.25/tonne higher at GBP140.05/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was up EUR1.50/tonne at EUR161.75/tonne, Nov 16 Paris corn ended EUR1.25/tonne firmer at EUR163.00/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed was EUR4.00/tonne higher at EUR394.00/tonne.
This was a new highest close for London wheat since late June 2014.
"Currency movements have again protected UK markets somewhat from the overall bearish sentiment expressed in other global wheat markets. As at yesterday’s close, £1= €1.1231 and $1.2424, the lowest levels since news that Parliament is likely to play a large part in the Brexit process broke last Thursday," said the HGCA.
Their Early Bird survey estimates UK rapeseed plantings for next year's harvest are "to fall for the fifth consecutive year" and to a 13-year low of 557k ha, and down 4% on last year.
Where are these extra acres going? Not into wheat where plantings are seen down 1% at 1.8 million ha, and 4% down on the recent 5-year average. Winter barley plantings will decline 9% to 397k ha, they estimate. The recent resurgence in spring barley sowings will continue, with a 17% rise in plantings to 799k ha, they add.
On an EU-wide level French Analysts Strategie Grains forecast EU-28 OSR plantings for next year's harvest up slightly at 6.62 million ha. They said that production in 2016 was 20.12 MMT, down 8.7% year-on-year, with yields down 9.4% at 3.08 MT/ha.
The French Corn Producers Association estimated the size of this year's French corn crop at 12.6 MMT, slightly above the Ag Ministry's 12.5 MMT forecast, but still around 9% down on last year.
Customs data shows that French soft wheat exports in September were down 43% year-on-year at 737 TMT.
Egypt's GASC bought 180,000 MT of Russian wheat and 60,000 MT of Romanian origin material in their latest tender for Dec 10-20 shipment.
Ukraine said that their 2016 harvest had now reached 91% complete at 57.23 MMT. Corn harvesting is 71% done at 18.19 MMT. Winter wheat plantings in Ukraine have now reached 94% complete on 5.84 million ha.
The Russian grain harvest is said to be 95.3% complete at 120.7 MMT. That includes 75.8 MMT of wheat (98.1% harvested) and 19.1 MMT of barley (97% cut). The corn harvest has now reached 64.3% complete at 10.5 MMT.
Russian plantings for the 2017 harvest are 98.8% over on 17.1 million ha.
The Russian Ag Ministry lowered their estimate for the country's 2016/17 grain exports to 35 MMT, of which 28 MMT will be wheat.
Chicago Beans Close Higher On Hopes For A Clinton Victory
07/11/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher. The trade awaits the outcome of the US presidential election and Wednesday's S&D report from the USDA. Weekend developments have allayed some of the trade fears over a possible Trump election victory, leading to higher trade today. Planting is going well in Brazil, with Safras estimating 82% of Matto Grosso and 73% of Parana is planted. IMEA estimate that Mato Grosso growers are only 28% sold on their new crop beans versus 47% committed this time a year ago. Weekly export inspections of 2.623 MMT were once again very impressive, even if they were only "in line" with trade estimates. On top of that we had the USDA announcing sales of 132,000 MT of US soybeans for delivery to China and 135,000 MT soybean meal for delivery to the Philippines during the 2016/17 marketing year under the daily reporting system. After the close the USDA said that this year's US soybean harvest had climbed to 93% complete versus 87% a week ago and 91% on average at this time. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.89 1/4, up 7 3/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.98 1/2, up 7 3/4 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $311.90, up $2.90; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 34.79, up 8 points.
Corn: The market closed a couple of cents or so lower. Weekly export inspections of 889,609 MT were around trade estimates. The USDA also reported the sale of 172,000 MT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2016/17 marketing year under the daily reporting system. US dollar strength today was a bit of a hindrance. Unlike in beans, for corn the market is expecting a small downwards correction in forecast yields from the USDA on Wednesday. IMEA estimate that the Brazilian grower in Mato Grosso is only 19% sold on his safrinha corn crop compared to a whopping 65% committed this time a year ago. After the close the USDA announced that this year's US corn harvest had advanced to 86% complete, up from 75% done a week ago and versus 85% for the 5-year average. Ukraine said that it had exported 550.4 TMT of corn via it's seaports last week. Harvesting there is said to be 67% complete at 16.87 MMT. Russia exported 112.6 TMT of corn via it's seaports last week. They've harvested 10.3 MMT of corn so far off 63.3% of the planted area. The French Ag Ministry estimated corn production there this year at 12.5 MMT, a 9% drop versus a year ago. Trade chatter suggests that the Brazilian livestock industry is substituting cheaper domestic wheat into the rations, displacing considerably more expensive corn. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.46 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents;
Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.55 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower on all three exchanges. Today's firmer US dollar, linked to renewed optimism for a Clinton victory in the upcoming US presidential election, was a bearish factor. Weekly export inspections came in at 494,154 MT - in line with trade expectations. The USDA had US winter wheat at 91% planted versus 86% a week ago and 92% on average at this time. Emergence is 79%, up 9 points from last week and one point ahead of the 5-year average. Winter wheat crop conditions were placed at 58% good to excellent, unchanged from last week and up from 51% this time a year ago. Some talk suggests that the driest areas of the Plains hard red wheat belt were by-passed by rains over the weekend. A few in the trade are making an issue of this dryness. European wheat is also dry ahead of winter dormancy. The Philippines are in the market for 165 TMT of feed wheat for Feb/Apr shipment. Talk of Brazilian wheat replacing corn in the rations is a little friendly. Ukraine winter wheat is said to be 93% planted. Russian winter grains (mostly wheat) are said to be 98.2% planted. Ukraine seaports exported 221 TMT of wheat last week, and their Russian counterparts 337.8 TMT. Russia's Ag Ministry say that their wheat exports for the season to date are 10.61 MMT. The Russian 2016 wheat harvest is said to be 98.5% complete at 75.8 MMT. The French Ag Ministry forecast the 2016 soft wheat crop there to be 31% down on last year at 28.1 MMT. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.10, down 4 1/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.10, down 1 1/2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.06 1/2, down 3 3/4 cents.
Quiet Start To The Week For EU Grains
07/11/16 -- EU grains closed mixed to start the week. London wheat was higher and the remainder of the complex generally lower.
At the close Nov 16 London wheat was up GBP0.70/tonne at GBP138.80/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was EUR1.50/tonne lower at EUR160.25/tonne, expiring Nov 16 Paris corn fell EUR3.75tonne to EUR159.50/tonne, Feb 17 Paris rapeseed was EUR0.75/tonne easier at EUR390.00/tonne.
It was a quiet start to begin the week, with traders focusing their attention on the US presidential election and Wednesday's upcoming WASDE report from the USDA.
The French Ag Ministry lowered their forecast fro the 2016 French total grain crop from 55.4 MMT to 54.9 MMT - the smallest production since 2003. That includes a soft wheat crop that's down 31% year-on-year at 28.1 MMT, a 23% decline in barley output to 10 MMT and an ongoing corn harvest that's expected to come in 9% lower at 12.5 MMT.
APK Inform said that Ukraine's seaports exported 835.9 TMT of grains last week, down slightly from 851.5 TMT the previous week and 1 MMT the week before that. Wheat accounted for 221 TMT of that total, barley another 63.5 TMT and corn 550.4 TMT as the main export drive now starts to concentrate on the latter commodity.
The Ukraine Ag Ministry said that this year's corn harvest was 67% complete at 16.87 MMT. Winter wheat plantings for the 2017 harvest are 93% done, along with 80% of the expected winter barley area.
Russia's seaports exported 469.4 TMT of grain last week, up from 354.7 TMT the previous week. That included 337.8 TMT of wheat, 15.8 TMT of barley and 152.6 TMT of corn.
The Russian Ag Ministry said that the country's total grain exports to date are 1.3% down on a year ago at 13.13 MMT (wheat 10.61 MMT, barley 1.43 MMT and corn 1.03 MMT).
That means that around a third of the way through the season exports must maintain this pace right through to hit trade estimates of final grain exports of 38-40 MMT, including around 30 MMT of wheat. Russian exports would typically fall away somewhat during the second half of an average season.
The Russian Ministry place the 2016 harvest at 120.5 MMT off 95.3% of the planted area. That includes 75.8 MMT of wheat, 19.1 MMT of barley and 10.3 MMT of corn (63.3% harvested).
Russian plantings for next year's harvest are said to be complete on 17.0 million ha (98.2% of the government target) versus 15.8 million ha this time a year ago.
Egypt's GASC tendered late in the day for wheat for Dec 10-20 shipment with the results expected tomorrow. Russian and Romanian origin have been the recent victors.
