Chicago Grains Closing Comments - Friday
11/11/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed lower on the day, and marginally easier for the week. Brazilian soybean planting is progressing at a fast pace. Ag Rural has the crop at 63% planted nationally. IMEA have Mato Grosso at more than 80% done, 20 points ahead of this time last year. Brazilian growers have been holding back on sales versus a year ago, but a stronger Brazilian real this week may have added an incentive to induce them to sell, competing with US supplies. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment on beans found 8 bulls, 3 bears and 5 neutrals. The November CBOT soybean contract expires on Monday. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.78 1/2, down 10 1/2 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.86, down 12 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $307.80, down $3.60; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 34.44, down 33 points. For the week, Nov 16 beans were down 3 cents, Dec 16 meal was down $1.20 and Dec 16 oil slid 27 points.
Corn: The corn market closed lower on the day and for the week. Conab estimated Brazil's full season corn crop at 83.1-84.6 MMT, up from 82.3 - 83.8 MMT previously, and far higher than this year's crop. The country is estimated at 71% planted. Argentina is estimated to be around 40% done. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange still estimates Argentine corn acres to be up 27% on last year. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment on corn found 4 bulls, 4 bears and 8 neutrals. The Russian Ag Ministry said that their 2016 corn harvest was 68% complete at 11.2 MMT off 2.0 million ha. Record production is expected this year. Rusagrotrans raised their estimate for 2016/17 Russian corn exports to 5.3 MMT against 4.65 MMT n 2015/16. Ukraine said that they'd harvested 58.44 MMT of grains of 92% of the planted area. That includes a corn harvest that's now 74% complete at 19.38 MMT off 3.15 million ha. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.40 1/4, down 3 1/4 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.49, down 3 cents. For the week Dec 16 was down 8 1/2 cents and Mar 17 was also 8 1/2 cents lower.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed, with Minneapolis again the strongest leg. Egypt's GASC bought just the one cargo (60,000 MT) of Russian wheat in their tender, paying more than $2.50/tonne more than they did just a few days ago. There were only a few offers, maybe due to the unattractive shipment period (Dec 15-25). Russia's 2016 wheat harvest remains at 75.8 MMT off 98.1% of the planted area. Plantings for 2017 are complete on 17.2 million ha (99.1% of the government forecast). Much colder weather is in the forecast a week from now. Ukraine winter wheat is said to be 95% planted on 5.88 million ha. Rusagrotrans lowered their forecasts for Russia's wheat and barley exports in 2016/17. They cut wheat by 1 MMT to 27 MMT and barley by 1.8 MMT to 2.5 MMT citing a shortage of quality grain in both cases this year. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment on wheat found 4 bulls, 4 bears and 8 neutrals. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.03, down 1 3/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.10 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.20, up 5 cents. For the week that puts Chicago wheat 11 1/4 cents lower, with Kansas down 1 1/4 cents and Minneapolis up 9 3/4 cents.
London Wheat Premiums Out Of Sync With Rest Of Market
At the finish Nov 16 London wheat was GBP0.50/tonne higher at GBP137.50/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was unchanged at EUR161.50/tonne, Nov 16 Paris corn ended EUR0.25/tonne firmer at EUR162.50/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed closed EUR0.75/tonne lower at EUR392.25/tonne.
For the week that means London wheat settles GBP0.60/tonne easier, with Paris wheat down a quarter of a euro, corn down EUR0.75/tonne and rapeseed up EUR1.50/tonne.
Sterling closed the week strongly, finishing at it's best levels against the US dollar in more than a month. This wasn't all down to the shock Trump US election victory, the pound closed above 1.16 versus the euro tonight for the first time since late September. There's a growing feeling in the currency markets that sterling's downside has been overdone lately, and that interest rates here will be forced higher in the New Year once Trump begins to implement some of his controversial policies across the pond.
That's potentially bad news for London wheat, which has ridden on the coat-tails of the weak pound to the highest levels since for a front month late June 2014 this week.
The deferred positions haven't seen the same levels of joy. Nov 17 closed at a GBP1.55/tonne discount to Nov 16 tonight. A month ago it was a GBP5.50/tonne premium, and two months ago one of GBP7.95/tonne. Note that this is in a market where Dec 17 Paris wheat is still paying EUR13.50/tonne (8.4%) more than Dec 16, and Dec 17 Chicago wheat is offering 21% more based on tonight's close. Discuss!
In other news, Egypt's GASC bought just the one cargo of Russian wheat in their latest tender. They didn't have a lot to chose from, only picking up three offers. Whether this was down to the difficult delivery time frame requested (Dec 15-25), or other reasons is unclear.
What is clear is that the price paid, USD192.50/tonne C&F, was substantially higher than levels of under USD190/tonne paid for Russian wheat earlier in the week.
Tunisia are also in the market tendering for wheat for Dec/Jan shipment.
Rusagrotrans lowered their forecast for Russia's grain exports in November from 4 MMT to 3.1 MMT. They also clipped back full season projections from 37.0 MMT to 35.4 MMT, of which wheat will consist of 27 MMT (down from 28 MMT previously). Barley export hopes were trimmed from 4.3 MMT to only 2.5 MMT, although those for corn were raised to 5.3 MMT.
The reasons given for the reductions were adverse weather conditions and a shortage of high quality wheat and barley this year.
Chicago Beans Rally Despite Lower Than Expected Export Sales
10/11/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher despite weekly export sales for once falling short of trade expectations. At 1,001,800 MT for 2016/17 these were down 60 percent from the previous week and 49 percent from the prior 4-week average. For 2017/18, net sales of 102,000 MT were reported for unknown destinations (60,000 MT) and Mexico (42,000 MT). Exports of 2,791,300 MT were still pretty impressive, with China taking 2,063,400 MT of that total. This was the fourth week in a row that the US shipped out more than 2.6 MMT of beans, most of them heading for China. For now at least, the market seems relaxed about the Trump shock victory and some of his antagonistic comments re China. The USDA also announced a sale of 126,000 MT of soybeans to China under the daily reporting system. Conab forecast Brazil's new crop at 101.6 MMT to 103.5 MMT versus 102 MMT from the USDA yesterday. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.89, up 7 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.98, up 7 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $311.40, unchanged; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 34.77, up 46 points.
Corn: The market closed with net gains of a couple of cents or so. Weekly export sales of 1,233,800 MT for 2016/17 were down 16 percent from the previous week, but up 19 percent from the prior 4-week average. Mexico (709,300 MT) was the top home (what are they going to do when the wall goes up?!) and weekly exports themselves of 892,600 MT were up 3 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Again Mexico was the leading buyer. The USDA also announced an export sale of 140,000 MT of corn to Saudi Arabia under the daily reporting system. South American weather remains favorable except for some small areas of Argentina that have been very wet. A dry pattern for the next 15 days for most of the Midwest should enable the bulk of the remaining US harvest to be wrapped up in a timely manner. FranceAgriMer said that this year's French corn harvest could be the lowest since 1990. They lowered their production forecast to 11.805 MMT, down from 12.197 MMT previously and 9.6% down versus last year - and that was hardly a vintage crop either. Russia said that they had now harvested 10.9 MMT of corn off 66.5% of the planted area. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.43 1/2, up 2 3/4 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.52, up 2 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed narrowly mixed. The Minneapolis exchange managed small net gains for a second session. Weekly export sales of 769,600 MT for delivery in marketing year 2016/17 were up noticeably from the previous week and 63 percent from the prior 4-week average. The top homes were unknown destinations (420,200 MT), China (60,000 MT) and Thailand (55,000 MT). Exports themselves of 380,200 MT were up 16 percent from the previous week and 6 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (98,300 MT), Mexico (68,000 MT), South Korea (50,800 MT), Nigeria (35,500 MT) and the Philippines (33,000 MT). French winter wheat planting has advanced to 90% complete versus 78% a week ago and 93% a year ago. FranceAgriMer increased the proportion of the French winter wheat crop rated good to very good by one percentage point from last week to 95% (versus 97% a year ago). The French analysts forecast the nation's soft wheat exports to fellow EU destinations at 6.3 MMT versus 6.42 MMT previously and 19% down on a year ago. Exports to non-EU homes were placed at 4.7 MMT, unchanged from last month but still 63% lower than in 2015/16. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.04 3/4, down 2 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.08 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.15, up 1/2 cent.
EU Grains Mixed, London Wheat Weakest Leg
10/11/16 -- EU grains closed mixed, with London wheat the weakest leg for a change as sterling found a sudden burst of strength.
At the close Nov 16 London wheat was down GBP0.40/tonne at GBP137.00/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was EUR0.75/tonne higher at EUR161.50/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn rose EUR0.50tonne to EUR162.25/tonne, Feb 17 Paris rapeseed was EUR3.00/tonne firmer at EUR393.00/tonne.
The market is now thinking that the pound's downside might have been overdone in the post-Brexit vote aftermath. Donald Trump's shock US election victory could now mean that the Bank of England will start raising UK interest rates sooner, and maybe higher, than previously anticipated if and when Trump puts some of his pre-election promises into action.
That could be bearish for London wheat, much of who's gains (from an early March low of under GBP100/tonne), have been directly attributed to sterling weakness rather than fundamental wheat market strength.
In other news, FranceAgriMer said that this year's French corn harvest could be the lowest since 1990. They lowered their production forecast to 11.805 MMT, down from 12.197 MMT previously and 9.6% down versus last year - and that was hardly a vintage crop either.
They said that the 2016 French corn harvest has now caught up pace with "normal" at 89% complete versus 79% a week ago and 90% this time last year.
French winter wheat planting has also advanced to 90% complete versus 78% a week ago and 93% a year ago. Winter barley is 97% sown (89% last week and 98% a year ago).
They increased the proportion of the French winter wheat crop rated good to very good by one percentage point to 95% (versus 97% a year ago). Winter barley good to very good was placed at 94% versus 97% a year ago.
The French analysts forecast the nation's soft wheat exports to fellow EU destinations at 6.3 MMT versus 6.42 MMT previously and 19% down on a year ago. Exports to non-EU homes were placed at 4.7 MMT, unchanged from last month but still 63% lower than in 2015/16.
Barley exports to EU homes were also downgraded to 2.85 MMT from 3.00 MMT previously and 3.03 MMT in 2015/16. Corn exports were also tweaked a little lower (5.14 MMT versus 5.16 MMT previously and 6.09 MMT last season).
Russia said that their 2016 net grain harvest had now reached 121.1 MMT off 95.5% of the planted area. That included 75.8 MMT of wheat (98.1% harvested), 19.1 MMT of barley (97%) and 10.9 MMT of corn (66.5%).
Winter plantings for 2017 are complete on 17.2 million ha (99% of the government target), up from only 15.8 million ha this time a year ago.
US Grains Tumble Following USDA Report
09/11/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed sharply lower. The USDA put 2016 national soybean yields at 52.5 bu/acre with production at 4.361 billion bushels (118.7 MMT). There were 51.4 bu/acre and 116.2 MMT last month. The trade was expectring yields to rise, but only to around 52.0 bu/acre. The larger than expected yield/production number spilled over into a bigger 2016/17 carryout than the markey had been anticipating. That was raised from 395 million bu last month to 480 million this time round (the average trade forecast was around 420 million bu). There were no changes to production in Brazil (102 MMT) or Argentina (57 MMT), nor China's import needs (86 MMT). Global ending stocks were raised from 77.4 MMT to 81.5 MMT. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.82, down 19 3/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.91, down 20 1/4 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $311.40, down $4.30; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 34.31, down 100 points.
Corn: Corn closed sharply lower after the USDA surprised the market by raising the average 2016 US corn yield by almost 2 bu/acre to 175.3 bu/acre. The market was expecting a tweak lower to around 173 bu/acre. The new yield figure took production up to a new record 15.226 billion bushels versus an average trade guess of 15.017 billion. US 2016/16 ending stocks were placed at 2.403 billion bu, around 100 million above trade expectations. "In the Black Sea region, Russia is harvesting a new record crop for the second consecutive year, while Ukraine is collecting a near-record crop," they noted. They increased their estimate for Russian production from 14.0 MMT To 14.5 MMT and upped Ukraine from 26 MMT to 27 MMT. Export potential out of both countries was also tweaked higher. World ending stocks came in at 218.2 MMT versus 216.8 MMT a month ago. Weekly US ethanol production data from the Energy Dept showed a 20,000 barrels/day fall from last week. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.40 3/4, down 13 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.49 3/4, down 13 cents.
Wheat: Wheat closed mostly lower, although Minneapolis did manage a small net gain. A bearish corn yield and production estimate from the USDA dragged wheat down, not that the numbers contained anything bullish for wheat either. Global production and ending stocks (including those in the US) were nudged higher. There were no changes to world exports in 2016/17 save for those from "others" with Russia, Ukraine, Australia, Canada and the EU all unaltered from a month ago. Egypt will remain the world's largest wheat buyer, with an import requirement of 11.8 MMT in 2016/17, they said. Russia said that they'd currently gathered a 2016 grain harvest of 120.8 MMT off 95.4% of the planned area. That includes 75.8 MMT if wheat off 98.1% of plan and 19.1 MMT of barley (off 97% of plan). Russian winter grains planting works are said to be complete on 17.2 million ha (98.9% of the government forecast) versus only 15.8 million ha this time a year ago. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.06 3/4, down 8 1/2 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.10 1/4, down 7 1/4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.14 1/2, up 1/2 cent.
EU Grains Fall Following Shock Trump Victory
The day ended with Nov 16 London wheat down GBP2.65/tonne at GBP137.40/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was EUR1.00/tonne lower at EUR160.75/tonne, Feb 17 Paris rapeseed ended EUR4.75/tonne weaker at EUR390.00/tonne and Jan 17 Paris corn was down EUR1.25/tonne at EUR161.75/tonne.
Commodity markets in general were lower following the news of the Trump victory, with only safe havens like gold posting gains. The US dollar and global equities opened sharply weaker too, although a sense of "normality" was restored before the close.
The other big news of the day was the USDA's November WASDE report where the biggest surprise was an upgrade for 2016 US corn yields (to 175.3 bu/acre), contrary to the downwards revision that the market was expecting (to 173.0 bu/acre).
That sent US corn prices tumbling, and wheat did't take a lot of persuasion to follow.
As far as the latter commodity goes, EU production this year was tweaked a bit higher, up from 143.2 MMT to 143.6 MMT, and EU 2016/17 exports were left unchanged at 25 MMT (down 28% on 34.78 MMT last season).
There were no changes made to the wheat balance sheets with regards to production or exports in Russia, Ukraine or Kazakhstan. EU-28 ending stocks were tweaked slightly lower from 10.53 MMT to 10.38 MMT. World ending stocks were raised from 248.4 MMT to 249.2 MMT, contrary to trade expectations of a small reduction.
Aside from the USDA numbers, fresh news was lacking.
The latest French customs data shows that it's not just wheat exports that are suffering this year (soft wheat foreign sales were down 43% year-on-year in September at 737 TMT). French barley exports fell 68% to 264 TMT in September, and corn exports were down 18% to 428 TMT.
Russia said that they'd harvested 120.8 MMT of their 2016 grain crop off 95.4% of the planted area. Corn harvesting is 65% done at 10.6 MMT.
Russian winter grains planting works are said to be complete on 17.2 million ha (98.9% of the government forecast) versus only 15.8 million ha this time a year ago.
Chicago Grains Rise Pre-USDA Report
08/11/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed with decent gains ahead of the results of the US presedential election and tomorrow's WASDE report from the USDA. The latter is expected to see the USDA increase their 2016 US yield forecast from last month's 51.4 bu/acre forecast to around 52.0 bu/acre. The trade has 2016/17 ending stocks up from 395 million bu a month ago to around 420 million this time round. Today the USDA reported export sales of 116,100 MT of soybean meal for delivery to the Dominican Republic during the 2016/17 marketing year. Chinese customs data showed that they only imported 5 MMT of soybeans in October, down 5.8% versus October 2015 and the smallest volume since February. There is a seasonal tendancy for October imports to be low. Strategie Grains forecast EU-28 OSR plantings for next year's harvest up slightly at 6.62 million ha. They said that production in 2016 was 20.12 MMT, down 8.7% year-on-year. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $10.01 3/4, up 12 1/2 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.11 1/4, up 12 3/4 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $315.70, up $3.80; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 35.31, up 52 points.
Corn: The corn market closed with decent pre-USDA report gains which may have been linked to book-squaring. The average trade guesses for tomorrow are for US production of around 15.017 billion bu and an average yield of 173 bu/acre. The USDA had production at 15.057 billion bu and yields at 173.4 bu/acre a month ago. 2016/17 ending stocks are placed at 2.30 billion bu. Customs data shows that US corn exports in September were 6.36 MMT, a whopping 89% increase year-on-year. The USDA has final full season exports up 17% at 56.52 MMT. The French Corn Producers Association estimated the size of this year's French corn crop at 12.6 MMT, slightly above the Ag Ministry's 12.5 MMT forecast, but still around 9% down on last year. The South African Grain Information Service say that the country's corn imports so far this season are up threefold at 1.38 MMT due to drought. Ukraine said that their 2016 corn harvest is 71% done at 18.19 MMT. In Russia the corn harvest has now reached 64.3% complete at 10.5 MMT. Trade talk suggests that rapid progress with Brazilian corn planting may lead to an earlier than normal start to this season's harvest. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.54 1/4, up 8 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.62 3/4, up 7 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed with good gains despite a lack of news. Short-covering ahead of tomorrow's USDA report may have been a feature. Egypt's GASC bought 180,000 MT of Russian wheat and 60,000 MT of Romanian origin material in their latest tender for Dec 10-20 shipment. The prices paid were around $187-190/tonne FOB for the Russian grain and $191/tonne for the Romanian product. The Russian grain harvest is said to be 95.3% complete at 120.7 MMT. That includes 75.8 MMT of wheat (98.1% harvested) and 19.1 MMT of barley (97% cut). The Russian Ag Ministry lowered their estimate for the country's 2016/17 grain exports to 35 MMT, of which 28 MMT will be wheat. Exports so far this season are lagging year ago levels despite the outlook for a bumper harvest. Russian plantings for the 2017 harvest are 98.8% over on 17.1 million ha. Customs data shows that French soft wheat exports in September were down 43% year-on-year at 737 TMT following the disaster that was this year's French wheat harvest (estimated down 31% by the French Ag Ministry yesterday). Poor quality is also a problem for exports this year. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.15 1/4, up 5 1/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.17 1/2, up 7 1/2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.14, up 7 1/2 cents.
