London Wheat Closes At Best Since Jun 2014
09/01/17 -- EU grains closed mixed but to start the week. London wheat got assistance from a wobbly pound. This was the best front month close on the continuous chart for London wheat since June 2014.
At the close Jan 17 London wheat was up GBP1.50/tonne at GBP144.15/tonne, Mar 17 Paris wheat was EUR0.25/tonne easier at EUR171.00/tonne, Mar 17 Paris corn was unchanged at EUR169.75/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed was down EUR2.50/tonne to EUR412.75/tonne.
APK Inform reported that Russia's grain exports for the two week period ending Jan 5 came in at almost 1 MMT, including 774.2 TMT of wheat, 179.9 TMT of corn and 30.9 TMT of barley.
Ukraine's exports in the same period were almost 1.5 MMT, including 491.2 TMT of wheat, 967.9 TMT of corn and 32.2 TMT of barley.
French soft wheat exports are down 33% Jul/Nov at 4.1 MMT. Nov exports of only 656 TMT marked the sixth straight month of decline for what is traditionally Europe's largest exporter.
FranceAgriMer currently forecast total French exports in 2016/17 down 47% at 10.1 MMT versus last last season.
Bangladesh's wheat imports surged 85% in the July 1-Dec 22nd period to 2.79 MMT. Imports for the whole of 2016/17 are currently estimated to rise 400 TT to 5.1 MMT, according to the latest data from the USDA.
Chicago Beans End Sharply Lower After Dismal Export Sales
06/012/17 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed sharply lower following weekly export sales of only 87,500 MT vs the expected 750 TMT to 1.2 MMT. Total reductions for unknown destinations in this report were nearly 900 TMT. FCStone increased their view by 700 TMT on Brazilian production to 102.8 MMT, but Informa cut Argentina 1 MMT to 55 MMT. There's talk that Brazil could increase their Jan soybean export program significantly due to better availability and easier access to ports/improved logistics. Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.86, down 17 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $9.94 3/4, down 17 3/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybean Meal settled at $307.50, down $6.90; Jan 17 Soybean Oil settled at 34.77, down 23 points.
Corn: The market closed around 3 cents lower. Weekly export sales came in at 429,246 MT, towards the low end of expectations, but this was for a holiday week so perhaps can be excused. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says corn plantings will be 4.9 million ha, unchanged from last week, and up 27% from last year. They have corn planting progress at 82.9% complete compared to 71.3% last week. Others are scaling back on their planting and hence production ideas due to wet weather/flooding. Informa cut their view on Argentine production, down slightly from the previous estimate of 36.5 MMT to 36.0 MMT. Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.58, down 3 1/4 cents; May 17 Corn settled at $3.64 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed. The USDA announced the sale of 100,000 MT of hard red winter wheat for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2016/17 marketing year. That helped temper the news that weekly export sales of only 183,700 MT were below modest trade expectations of 200-500 TMT. Farm Futures magazine forecast US winter wheat seedings of 34.8 million acres, the lowest total since 1913 as the low price/profit outlook encourages switching to other crops. Informa forecast Argentine wheat production at 15 MMT, up from their previous estimate of 13 MMT. They have been flexing their muscles lately on the international export arena, and another 2 MMT will only make matters worse. Mar 17 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.23 1/4, down 3 cents; Mar 17 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.33 1/2, down 1 cent; Mar 17 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.52 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents.
EU Grains Mostly Higher
The day ended with Jan 17 London wheat up GBP1.35/tonne at GBP142.65/tonne, Mar 17 Paris wheat was up EUR1.25/tonnr at EUR171.25/tonne, Mar 17 Paris corn was up EUR0.25/tonne to EUR169.25/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed fell EUR2.75/tonne to EUR415.25/tonne.
For the week that puts London wheat GBP3.75/tonne higher In Paris, wheat is up EUR3.25/tonne, corn is up EUR1.25/tonne and rapeseed has gained EUR6.25/tonne.
Brussels reported 140 TMT worth of EU soft wheat exports this past week. That takes the season to date total to 12.87 MMT. Cumulative barley exports stand at 2.1 MMT, and corn imports are 4.7 MMT.
A harsh cold snap gripping the Black Sea area is expected to last a few more days yet, and could cause some winterkill issues for wheat unprotected by an adequate snow coverage.
In the US, Farm Futures magazine indicates winter wheat seedings of only 34.8 million acres, the lowest total since 1913, as growers switch to other crops.
The FAO said that Russia will harvest 115 MMT of grains this season, up 13% versus last year. Production in Ukraine will rise 6% to 63 MMT, they added.
So How Was Your Christmas?
Or the over-consumerised wankfest as I prefer to call it. Mine was as predictably shit as you would expect Christmas on Chemo to be. Usually when I throw up on Christmas Day it's due to having consumed excessive amounts of alcohol on Christmas Eve. This year I just did it anyway so as not to feel left out.
I did manage two halves of lager over the festive period (not in succession you understand, who do you think I am Georgie Best, no on two separate occassions), but couldn't manage to finish either I am so lightweight these days.
Christmas Dinner? Well, I decided to plump for a nice bag of the same stuff I've been "eating" for the last 365 days, straight into the stomach, cutting out the middle man. And totally undelicious it was too, even with the aroma of the real thing whafting in from the kitchen.
New Year was a quiet affair, until the in-laws came round and decided to recreate the opening scenes from Saving Private Ryan in the kitchen by giving Knocker a biscuit nano-seconds before Chummy. Well that was it, I was bitten on the thumb trying to break the buggers up (the dogs not the in-laws) and ended up in A&E.
All of this, and the fact that my white and red blood cell count is low (well it would be wouldn't it given the shite-in-a-bag that they are forcing me to eat?) culminated in me having to have two blood transfusions, a thumb that's bandaged up so it's 3 times it's normal size (not before they scrubbed it out with iodine and a toothbrush) and I'm still being sick!
Who said 2017 could only get better?
Chicago Close - Thursday
05/01/17 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed a touch lower on the day. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered the estimated Argentine soybean planted area 300,000 ha to 19.6 million ha. Dr Cordonnier has expressed concern that not all soybean acres will be planted this year due to the rains and flooding. Production there could end up in the 53-55 MMT region rather than the 57 MMT currently predicted by the USDA some are suggesting. Everything looks rosy in Brazil though. One of Brazil’s largest farming groups (Grupo Bom Futuro) said that they expect their soybean yields to come in 10 percent above the previous season. Trade ideas on the Brazilian crop are said to be in the 103-105 MMT area versus the December WASDE forecast of 102 MMT. Trade ideas for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for beans are around 800 TMT to 1.2 MMT. Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.03 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $10.12 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybean Meal settled at $314.40, down $0.90; Jan 17 Soybean Oil settled at 35.00, up 2 points.
Corn: Corn closed around a cent or two higher. Weekly US ethanol production came out today, up 15k barrels to nearly 1.04m barrels per day. This was a new record high and the tenth consecutive week that production has been over 1 million barrels/day which was friendly for corn. Taiwan’s MFIG are said to have bought 65 TMT of corn believed to be of US origin for March/April shipment. Ukraine’s 2017 corn crop is estimated to be down 13%, or 3.5 MMT, to 23.5 MMT, according to UkrAgroConsult. Weekly US corn export sales are estimated at 650-850 TMT for tomorrow's report. In other news, a potential drier outlook for Brazil over the coming weeks could provide resistance to corn, as this dryness should allow safrinha corn in Brazil to go in 2-3 weeks early. This timing should allow maximum yield potential for this shorter season double crop corn, offsetting potential losses from excessive rain in Argentina, said Water Street Solutions. Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.61 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents; May 17 Corn settled at $3.67 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents.
Wheat: Wheat closed with fair gains. Algeria were said to have bought 475 TMT of mixed optional origin wheat, paying around $200/tonne C&F. Jordan, Japan, Morocco and Ethiopia are among others in the market tendering for wheat. Argentina’s wheat harvest is 94.9% complete according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. In Ukraine, temperatures are reaching -20C with insufficient snow cover in some areas, a threat to winter wheat. "Wheat plantings in Ukraine as at 1 December are pegged at 6.1 million ha, up from 6.0 million at the same point last year – although this would still be a smaller winter wheat area than all other years at least back to 2008," say the HGCA. Ukraine wheat output in 2017 is expected to decline 3.5 MMT to 23.5 MMT, say UkrAgroConsult. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for wheat are a modest 200-500 TMT. Mar 17 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.26 1/4, up 7 3/4 cents; Mar 17 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.34 1/2, up 8 cents; Mar 17 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.50 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents.
EU Grains Close - Thursday
At the finish Jan 17 London wheat was up GBP1.40/tonne at GBP141.30/tonne, Mar 17 Paris wheat was up EUR0.25/tonne at EUR170.00/tonne, Mar 17 Paris corn ended unchanged at EUR169.50/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed closed EUR1.00/tonne lower at EUR418.00/tonne.
France reported a 29% drop in exports from the leading port of Rouen in the week ending January 4th, to 53 TMT. That week’s total included 23.45 TMT of soft wheat to Tunisia and 29.5 TMT to Yemen.
Algeria are said to have bought up to 475 TMT of optional origin soft wheat at a around $198-$202/MT C&F.
Russia said that their 2016/17 grain exports were down 3.7% at 19.73 MMT. That includes 15.44 MMT of wheat, 1.83 MMT of barley and 2,32 MMT of corn.
Ukraine’s 2017 corn crop is estimated to be down 13%, or 3.5 MMT, to 23.5 MMT, according to UkrAgroConsult.
Chicago Grains End Higher
04/01/17 -- Soycomplex: Beans settled with decent gains after trading at its lowest level since November 18 earlier in the day. Strong global demand is underpinned by a lack of rapeseed. China reportedly sold 97.9 TMT of the 98.5 TMT of state owned rapeseed oil up for auction today. The USDA attache raised their estimate for the Brazilian soy crop 1 MMT to 102 MMT. The USDA crush report released yesterday afternoon indicated November was at 170.7 million bushels compared to 176.0 in October. Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.06 1/4, up 19 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $10.15 1/4, up 20 1/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybean Meal settled at $315.30, up $7.00; Jan 17 Soybean Oil settled at 34.98, up 41 points.
Corn: The market finished with net gains of around 4 cents, the 4th consecutive day of positive trade. The weekly USDA Export Sales report is delayed a day because of the holiday shortened week. Taiwan is tendering 40,000-65,000 MT of optional origin corn, including US material. AGPM estimated the French corn crop at 12.3 MMT, significantly higher than FranceAgrimer’s 11.45 MMT figure. In Argentina, heavy rainfall is raising fears about that last sowing works, say Agritel. Farmers have sown about 85% of soybeans and 72% of corn, according to the Buenos Aires Exchange. Russia said that they'd exported 2.32 MMT of corn so far this year. Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.59 3/4, up 4 cents; May 17 Corn settled at $3.65 3/4, up 4 1/4 cents.
Wheat: Wheat finished with decent gains. That USDA has 44% of Kansas wheat rated good to excellent versus 52% at the end of November. Oklahoma is now only 25% G/E, down from 53% a month ago. This news will likely have prompted some short-covering, even if the trade is relatively relaxed about the global supply and demand situation. Ethiopia are tendering for 720,000 MT of wheat of optional origin. China’s imported wheat auction continues to see little interest, with less than 100 TMT of the offered near 1 MMT sold today. Russia said that they'd exported 15.45 MMT of wheat so far this season. Total grain exports are running nearly 4% lower year-on-year. Mar 17 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.18 1/2, up 12 cents; Mar 17 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.26 1/2, up 12 1/2 cents; Mar 17 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.44 1/2, up 7 cents.
EU Grains Mostly Higher
04/01/17 -- EU grains closed mixed but mostly firmer on the day. Strength in Chicago soybeans supported rapeseed.
At the close Jan 17 London wheat was up GBP0.55/tonne at GBP139.90/tonne, Mar 17 Paris wheat was EUR0.50/tonne higher at EUR169.75/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn was EUR0.50/tonne lower at EUR174.50/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed was up EUR4.25/tonne to EUR419.00/tonne.
Russian and Ukraine exports slowed up to virtual halt last week due to the holiday, with the former shipping out only 24.3 MMT and the latter 40.3 MMT, according to APK Inform Agency.
News out of Russia is scarce as many there observe the extended Russian Orthodox Christmas.
"Wheat plantings in Ukraine as at 1 December are pegged at 6.1 million ha, up from 6.0 million at the same point last year – although this would still be a smaller winter wheat area than all other years at least back to 2008," say the HGCA. Winter barley is pegged at 0.9 million ha, down from 1 million last year, making for also the smallest winter barley area since 2008, they add.
"Higher oilseed plantings, particularly winter OSR (up 0.2 million ha to 0.9 million ha), are driven by the increasingly favourable relationship of oilseed to grain. That's an increase of 28.5%, which is also likely due to that fact that plantings were hindered by a particularly dry late summer and autumn in 2015.
Ukraine wheat output in 2017 is expected to decline 3.5 MMT to 23.5 MMT, say UkrAgroConsult
AGPM estimated the French corn crop at 12.3 MMT, significantly higher than FranceAgrimer’s 11.45 MMT figure.
Chicago Beans Tumble
20/12/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed sharply lower on an improved weather outlook in Argentina and bird flu in Asia. Reuters reported that South Korea has culled 20 million birds since the H5N6 virus was first discovered there on November 18. There are also outbreaks in China and Europe too. Malaysia said that it will raise the export tax on palm oil from 6% to 7% starting January 2017. Argentine soybean exports were only 492 TMT in October versus 1.51 MMT a year previously. Jan/Oct exports are down 21% at 9.8 MMT. There were no new USDA sales announced this morning under the daily reporting system. Thin pre-holiday trade will likely add to volatility this week. Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.05 1/4, down 16 1/4 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $10.15 3/4, down 16 1/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybean Meal settled at $308.80, down $3.40; Jan 17 Soybean Oil settled at 36.06, down 50 points.
Corn: The market closed around 3 cents lower. AgRural estimated Brazil's full season corn crop at 59.9 MMT, up 47% from only 40.7 MMT last year. They see all corn output at 88.3 MMT, up 33%. Vietnam, the third largest importer of U.S DDGs, are said to have suspended intake beginning December 17th due to insect contamination. Bloomberg report that China may expand subsidies to farmers who grow soy, silage and alfalfa rather than corn. Chinese radio says that the government intend to reduce the 2017 corn area by nearly 1.65 million acres (1.8%) in continuing efforts to reduce reserve stocks. Argentina's October corn exports were up 60% at 1.89 MMT. That takes Jan/Oct exports to 21.2 MMT, a 32% hike versus 12 months previously. Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.50 1/4, down 3 cents; May 17 Corn settled at $3.57, down 3 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed with small losses. Egypt bought 180 TMT of Russian wheat, 120 TMT of Argentine and 60 TMT of Romanian origin in their tender. The Argentine wheat was around $13/tonne FOB under the price paid for Russian material. US wheat was not offered as part of the tender. Taiwan are tendering for 93,000 MT of US wheat. Jordan are in for 25,000 MT of optional origin wheat. Argentina said that they'd exported 369 TMT of wheat in October, up 29% on a year ago. Jan/Oct exports are almost double those of 2015 at 8.2 MMT. Frigid temperatures on the US Plains and Black Sea area keep getting flagged up as a potential worry down the line. Mar 17 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.03 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents; Mar 17 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.12 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents; Mar 17 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.40 3/4, down 1 cent.
Egypt Spreads Wheat Business Around
The day ended with Jan 17 London wheat up GBP0.95/tonne at GBP137.10/tonne, Mar 17 Paris wheat was unchanged at EUR167.75/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn was up EUR0.75/tonne to EUR165.75/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed fell EUR1.75/tonne to EUR413.50/tonne.
Highlight of the day was the result of the latest Egyptian wheat tender, which saw them spread the business around between Argentina, Romania and Russia,
The latter won the lion's share of the 360,000 MT order, picking up 3 cargoes (180 TMT) worth, followed by 2 cargoes of Argentine wheat (120 TMT) and one (60 TMT) of Romanian origin.
It is interesting to see Argentina, mid-wheat harvest, competing into Egypt despite a significant freight disadvantage.
In other tender news, Jordan cancelled and immediately re-tendered for 25,000 MT of optional origin hard wheat.
Rapeseed prices were lower in line with a reversal in Chicago soybeans following rain in Argentina.
There's some trade concern developing over sub-zero temperatures and a lack of snow cover in the Black Sea area.
Chicago Soybeans Lead Market Lower
19/12/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower on rain in Argentina. BA and La Pampa provinces were said to have received ½ to 1 ½” rains over the weekend, with the prospect of more to follow. Adding to the bearish tone was news that SAFRAS increased its Brazilian soybean production estimate to 106.1 MMT, up 2.6 MMT from October and now 4.1 MMT above the USDA. Crop development is said to be very good. The USDA announced 264,000 MT of soybeans to China announced under the daily reporting system. Weekly export inspections were pretty good at 1.731 MMT, even if they were down 6% from the previous week. Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.21 1/2, down 15 1/4 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $10.32, down 14 3/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybean Meal settled at $312.20, down $4.90; Jan 17 Soybean Oil settled at 36.56, down 18 points.
Corn: Corn closed around 3 cents easier. Weekly export inspections of 769,008 MT were a bit on the low side of expectations and down 12% from the previous week. The USDA did report 128,000 MT of US corn sold to Japan for delivery in 2016/17 under the daily reporting system though. Argentina has received the much anticipated rains over much of their critical growing acres with more expected this week, easing production fears there. The Russian 2016 harvest is finally wrapping up at 125.8 MMT (97.2% complete), including 15.3 MMT of corn off 89.3% of the planted area. Record production this year is a certainty. They've already increased 2016/17 exports by almost a third over 2015/16 to 2.05 MMT. Ukraine's seaports exported 670.1 TMT of grains last week, of which 442.4 TMT was corn. Agritel say that the Ukraine corn harvest still has around 10% to go, with final production expected at around 26.2 MMT, a 2.9 MMT increase on a year ago. Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.53 1/4, down 3 cents; May 17 Corn settled at $3.60, down 3 cents.
Wheat: Wheat closed lower in line with the rest of the complex. Weekly export inspections of 478,213 MT were in line with expectations. YTD inspections are still up nearly 27% vs. year ago though. Extreme cold in the US Plains and Midwest is still grabbing some attention for US wheat, although the market is very conscious of the global oversupply situation. The EU’s crop monitoring unit, MARS, sees possible frost kill the week beginning December 21. Winter weather there has been relatively mild so far leaving crops vulnerable to a cold snap forecast to see temperatures drop to -4C. Egypt are back in the market tendering for wheat for late Jan shipment. Russia's wheat exports so far this season stand at 14.32 MMT. In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange expects Cordoba wheat producers to harvest a record 4 MMT this year, up from 2.7 MMT a year ago. Mar 17 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.05, down 4 1/4 cents; Mar 17 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.14, down 3/4 cent; Mar 17 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.41 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents.
EU Grains Mostly Higher Monday
At the finish Jan 17 London wheat was up GBP1.10/tonne at GBP136.15/tonne, Mar 17 Paris wheat was unchanged at EUR167.75/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn ended EUR0.25/tonne firmer at EUR165.00/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed closed EUR2.00/tonne lower at EUR415.25/tonne.
Similar to a year ago, the relatively mild start to the EU winter means that "the hardening of winter cereals is considerably delayed," the EU Commission's MARS unit said in a report.
"The current situation is delicate, since a cold air intrusion could cause considerable frost-kill damage in the areas characterised by no snow cover and low frost tolerance of winter crops," they said, adding though that "frost kill has been very limited so far."
However, a "significant" cold intrusion is forecast to bring harsh cold to the eastern half of Europe from December 21, they warned.
Egypt tendered for wheat for Jan 20-31 shipment, with the results expected tomorrow.
Russia said that it had exported 18.28 MMT of grains so far this season, a 1.8% decline on year ago levels. That total includes 14.32 MMT of wheat, 1.8 MMT of barley and 2.05 MMT of corn.
The Russian 2016 harvest is finally wrapping up at 125.8 MMT (97.2% complete), including 15.3 MMT of corn off 89.3% of the planted area.
APK Inform reported that Ukraine seaports had exported 670.1 TMT of grains last week, up from 635.2 TMT the previous week. Wheat consisted of 202.4 TMT of that total, corn 442.4 TMT and barley 24.8 TMT.
Agritel say that the Ukraine corn harvest still has around 10% to go, with final production expected at around 26.2 MMT, a 2.9 MMT increase on a year ago.
Chicago Close - Friday
16/12/16 -- Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.36 3/4, up 7 3/4 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $10.46 3/4, up 7 1/2 cents; Jan 17 Soybean Meal settled at $317.10, up $3.10; Jan 17 Soybean Oil settled at 36.74, unchanged.
Corn: Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.56 1/4, down 1/4 cent; May 17 Corn settled at $3.63, down 1/4 cent.
Wheat: Mar 17 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.09 1/4, unchanged; Mar 17 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.14 3/4, up 2 cents; Mar 17 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.44 1/4, up 6 1/4 cents.
EU Grains Close -Friday
16/12/16 -- EU grains closed mostly lower on the day and with little change from last Friday.
At the close Jan 17 London wheat was down GBP0.65/tonne at GBP135.40/tonne, Mar 17 Paris wheat was EUR0.25/tonne higher at EUR167.75/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn was EUR0.75/tonne lower at EUR164.75/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed was down EUR2.50/tonne to EUR417.25/tonne.
EU soft wheat exports continue to slow up and are now running just 1% ahead of year ago levels at a cumulative 11.13 MMT after 135,000 MT was exported this week.
Cunulative barley exports are 65% down compared to this time last year at 1.88 MMT, including 118,000 MT shipped this week.
EU corn imports are running 19% lower year-on-year at 4.22 MMT.
Algeria bought 490,000 MT of unknown origin wheat on the international market. At least some of that should end up coming from the EU, and possibly even the UK which has been enjoying some success in this direction recently.
FranceAgriMer reported unchanged French winter wheat and barley crop conditions from last week at 94% and 92% good to very good respectively.
Strategie Grains increased their forecast for EU-28 soft wheat exports in 2016/17 by 170 TMT to 23.4 MMT (still down sharply on 32.7 MMT in 2015/16)
They estimated the 2017 EU-28 soft wheat crop at 145 MMT versus 135.9 MMT this year.
Ukraine said that it had exported 20.06 MMT of grains so far this season versus 19.18 MMT this time last year. Wheat accounts for 10.6 MMT of that total, up from 9.5 MMT a year ago. Corn exports are down 0.45 MMT at 5.3 MMT.
Chicago Close - Tuesday
13/12/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower on news that the Chinese government had ordered six plants to temporarily halt crushing operations in order to curb air pollution. Argentina is said to be 58% planted, behind 64% normally, with more dry weather in the forecast. Coceral forecast the EU-28 2016 rapeseed crop at 20 MMT versus 22.4 MMT in 2015. IMEA say that growers in Brazil's Mato Grosso state are 47.5% forward sold versus 55.4% a year ago. There were no announcements from the USDA under the daily reporting system today. Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.28, down 3 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $10.39 1/2, down 3 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $313.50, down $1.30; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 36.57, down 19 points.
Corn: The market closed with small gains. Ethanol, which rose to two year highs yesterday, is keeping US demand solid. US production has been above 1 million barrels/day for the last six weeks. Ethanol cash margins are very attractive, averaging over $1/bu in the Midwest. The latest numbers from the US Energy Dept are out tomorrow. Argentina is said to be 48% planted on new crop corn. Some analysts are already starting to scale down their estimates for Argentine corn production this year. Coceral estimated EU-28 2016 corn output up 3.4% at 60.7 MMT. US growers are said to be "shutting up shop" ahead of adverse weather conditions rolling in and the Christmas break. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.56 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.61, up 1/2 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed. Fresh news was limited. Coceral forecast the EU-28 soft wheat crop at 134.7 MMT, up slightly on their previous estimate but still 11.5% down on 152.1 MMT a year ago. Tunisia are tendering for 92,000 MT of soft wheat, and 50,000 MT of durum, and the Philippines tendered for 56,000 MT of feed wheat. Forecast cold weather for the US Plains is getting some attention from the shorts, with snow cover scarce in many places. Russia and Ukraine are also in for a cold snap that has Rusagrotrans lowering their estimate for Russia's grain exports this month from 3.8 MMT to 3.45 MMT. UkrAgroConsult trimmed the Russian barley crop 600 TMT to 18.4 MMT. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $3.98, down 3 1/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $3.99 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.40 3/4, down 1 cent.
EU Grains Mostly Higher Tuesday
The day ended with Jan 17 London wheat down GBP0.10/tonne at GBP135.05/tonne, new front month Mar 17 Paris wheat was EUR1.00/tonne higher at EUR165.75/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn was up EUR0.25/tonne to EUR165.25/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed rose EUR1.25/tonne to EUR414.25/tonne.
UK export data for October shows that our wheat exports fell to 145,437 MT, down from 252,429 MT in September, with Algeria our largest single buyer taking 59,266 MT. Season to date exports are up 60% year-on-year at almost 859 TMT.
UK October barley exports of 72 TMT were at their lowest level in four years, say the HGCA. Cumulative season to date exports are 430 TMT versus 507 TMT a year ago.
"The slower pace of barley exports contrasts to the continued fastest pace of UK wheat exports for six years," they said.
"UK average ex-farm feed barley spot prices traded over £20/MT lower than feed wheat in late October, yet wheat still continued to be more successful in finding both export and domestic feed demand. The spread between prices has continued to hover around £20/MT since, but if wheat continues to more successfully find demand relative to barley, there could be pressure for the spread to grow," they added.
Coceral forecast the EU-28 soft wheat crop at 134.7 MMT, up slightly on their previous estimate but still 11.5% down on 152.1 MMT a year ago.
The French wheat crop was seen 31% lower than last year at 28.9 MMT, with output in the UK estimated 12% down at 14.5 MMT.
The EU barley crop was forecast 3.4% lower at 59.2 MMT, with corn output up 3.4% at 60.7 MMT.
The French Ag Ministry estimated winter wheat plantings for the 2017 harvest around unchanged at 5.19 million ha, but some 3.5% up on the recent 5-year average.
Rusagrotrans lowered their forecast for the country's December grain exports from 3.8 MMT to 3.45 MMT due to adverse weather conditions.
Chicago Close - Monday
12/12/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower despite better than expected weekly export inspections of 1.837 MMT. The USDA also reported that China bought 256,600 MT of US soybeans for 2016/17 delivery under the daily reporting system. In Brazil, soybean planting is reported to be 95% complete. Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.31, down 6 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $10.42 1/2, down 6 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $314.80, down $2.60; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 36.76, up 2 points.
Corn: Corn closed a cent or two firmer. Weekly export inspections were 860,927 MT - more than 150% of the same week last year - but no better than trade expectations. China booked 100,000 MT of US sorghum according to the USDA's daily reporting system. The focus is now squarely on South American weather, with comined Arg/Braz production seen up 25-28% on last year. Ukraine seaports exported 429.9 TMT of corn last week, according to ASK Inform Agency. Russia's 2-16 corn harvest is seen 87.87% done at 14.9 MMT, according to their Ag Ministry. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.54 1/2, up 2 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.60 1/2, up 1 cent.
Wheat: Wheat closed modestly higher in all three exchanges. Weekly export inspections of 440,805 MT were in line with what was expected by the market. Saudi Arabia bought 725 000 MT of hard 12.5% milling wheat with at least some of it scheduled to come from the US, according to trade gossip. Algeria tendered for 100,000 MT of Jan milling wheat. Jordan are tendering for 25,000 MT of optional origin hard wheat. Russia said that it's 2016 wheat harvest was 98.2% complete at 75.9 MMT in bunker weight. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.01 1/4, up 1 cent; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $3.97 1/2, up 2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.41 3/4, up 5 3/4 cents.
EU Grains Mostly Higher
At the finish Jan 17 London wheat was up GBP0.25/tonne at GBP135.15/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat plunged EUR6.25/tonne higher at EUR155.50/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn ended EUR0.25/tonne firmer at EUR164.25/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed closed EUR1.00/tonne steadier at EUR413.00/tonne.
Saudi Arabia bought 725 000 MT of hard 12.5% milling wheat, probably said to be a mixture of US and South American origin for shipment Feb/April. Algeria tendered for 100,000 MT of Jan milling wheat. Jordan are tendering for 25,000 MT of optional origin hard wheat.
Strong crude oil prices lent some support to already firm rapeseed values, although soybeans and palm oil were a bit lower.
The Black Sea region is experiencing it's first serious cold spell of the winter, which may cause some shipping and transport disruptions.
Ukraine seaports shipped out 639.2 TMT of grains last week, up from 550.9 TMT the previous week. That included 188.3 TMT of wheat, 429.9 TMT of corn and 17 TMT of barley. The top homes were Egypt, India and Tunisia.
In Ukraine winter grain emergence is seen at 93%. of which 83% is said to be in good to satisfactory condition and 17% weak/thinned.
Russia's 2016 harvest is placed at 97.1% done on 45.9 million ha for a crop of 125.5 MMT so far. That includes a corn harvest that's 87.87% done at 14.9 MMT.
Chicago Closes Higher After USDA Report
09/12/16 -- Beans closed higher despite a USDA report that pegged 2016/17 US soybean ending stocks unchanged at 480 million bushels versus the 474 million expected. World carryout showed an increase from 81.3 MMT to 82.9 MMT. They USDA put Brazil at 102 MMT and left Argentina at 57.0 MMT. They also announced the sale of 132,000 MT of US soybeans to unknown destinations overnight. Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.37 1/2, up 10 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $10.48 1/2, up 10 3/4 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $317.40, up $5.00; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 36.74, down 31 points.
Corn: Corn closed closed higher as the USDA report came and went with hardly a blink. They left 2016/17 US ending stocks unchanged at 2.403 billion bushels. They raised world production by more than 9 MMT to almost 1040 MMT. Brazil was up 3 MMT, China up 3.5 MMT and Russia was raised by 1 MMT. World exports were raised 2 MMT to 141.7 MMT, with Brazil up 1 MMT to 22 MMT and Russia up 600,000 MT to 5.3 MMT. Taiwan were said to have bought 65 TMT of probably US corn overnight. Israel bought 95 TMT of Black Sea corn for Feb/April shipment. The Argentine corn crop is said to be 48% planted. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.52 1/2, up 6 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.59 1/2, up 6 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed with net gains on all three exchanges. The USDA left projected US wheat ending stocks unaltered at 1.143 billion bushels. They raised global and Australian production in 2016/17 to new records. Russian production was seen unchanged at 72 MMT, exports were lowered 1.0 MMT to 29.0 MMT due to slower-than-expected trade. World carryout was seen at an alt-time high of over 252 MMT. SovEcon boosted their estimate for Russia's total grain harvest by 1.5 MMT to 114 MMT. Argentine wheat is said to be 40.7% harvested. US winter wheat weather is starting to raise a few eyebrows with lows below zero over the next 7-10 days with accompanying gale force winds. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.00 1/4, up 9 1/2 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $3.95 1/2, up 8 1/2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.36, up 1/4 cent.
EU Wheat Slips Following USDA Report
09/12/16 -- EU grains closed mostly mixed as the trade digested the latest raft of world supply and demand numbers from the USDA.
At the close Jan 17 London wheat was down GBP0.90/tonne at GBP134.90/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was EUR0.50/tonne lower at EUR161.75/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn was EUR0.25/tonne firmer at EUR164.50/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed was up EUR2.75/tonne to EUR412.00/tonne.
The USDA raised global and Australian production in 2016/17 to new records. Global trade was however also boosted to a new record with stronger import demand from Asia and Brazil. Larger exports for Australia and Argentina were partially offset by a decrease for Russia.
EU 2016/17 wheat production was raised 400,000 MT to just shy of 144 MMT and EU exports were left unchanged at 25 MMT (down 28% from 34.7 MMT last season).
Russian production was seen unchanged at 72 MMT, exports were lowered 1.0 MMT to 29.0 MMT due to slower-than-expected trade
Australia's crop saw a big hike, up from 28.3 MMT to 33 MMT, with exports also seen sharply higher a 23 MMT from 20.5 MMT previously.
The bottom line was a raise in world ending stocks of almost 3 MMT to a record of over 252 MMT.
In other news, Brussels announced that they'd only approved a paltry 88 TMT worth of soft wheat exports this past week, down 79% on the previous week. That takes the season to date total to 10.47 MMT.
Less than 35 TMT worth of barley exports were passed, taking this season's total to 1.76 MMT.
Trade talk suggests that India could be a large wheat importer for the remainder of the season. They're said to have already imported 1.72 MMT of wheat this year, with over 1 MMT of that coming from Ukraine, approximately 500 TMT from Australia and around 150 TMT from France.
Trade ideas are that they will need to import at least 3 MMT, and possibly as much as 5 MMT in total, due to quality and quantity shortfalls in their own 2016 crop.
Around 400 TMT of Ukraine wheat is rumoured to be held up on passage to India as exporters there concentrate their efforts on corn shipments. That could provide a short-term window of opportunity for EU wheat.
